Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan Odds
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
One of the best days of the college football season is here: the return of MACtion.
Yes, Conference USA took over Tuesday and Wednesday nights in early October, but MACtion always hits different in late October and November.
Let's kick things off with Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan.
Northern Illinois comes in on a three-game win streak and sits one game behind Toledo in the West Division. It needs to keep winning to put pressure on Toledo after losing to the Rockets by two earlier in the season, so NIU has to win this game to stay alive for the MAC Championship.
Meanwhile, Central Michigan sits at 4-4 after a 24-17 loss in its last game at Ball State. The Chippewas come in two games behind Toledo at 2-2 in the MAC West.
Plus, the Chippewas are two games away from getting to a bowl game, so this game is incredibly crucial for them with both Toledo and Ohio left on the schedule.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois boasts an effective rushing attack that runs the ball on 54% of offensive plays.
Lead back Antario Brown has been solid this season for the Huskies, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, mainly because of one game against Akron in which he went off for 280 yards on only 13 carries.
He has struggled against some of the better front sevens in the MAC, but Central Michigan has a well below-average unit against the run. The Chippewas come in at 119th in Stuff Rate, 118th in Defensive Line Yards and 115th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
In their last game against Ball State — which ranked outside the top 100 in pretty much every single rushing metric — they allowed a whopping 243 yards on the ground on their way to a 24-17 loss.
NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi's numbers for the season aren't great, but a lot of that's due to two bad games against Nebraska and Boston College.
As you can see below, he's been steadily improving during MAC play.
Image via PFF.
The Northern Illinois defense has struggled at times this season, but it's been playing much better of late. In its last three games, it's held Akron, Ohio and Eastern Michigan under 15 points and under five yards per play.
The Huskies have been incredibly stout in their front seven, ranking 53rd in EPA/Rush Allowed while allowing 4.3 yards per carry. That's good news when facing a Central Michigan team that averages only 3.5 yards per attempt and ranks outside the top 75 in Offensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.
NIU struggles to defend the pass, but on a cold night in Mount Pleasant, it's going to be hard for a below-average passing attack to effectively throw the ball.
Central Michigan Chippewas
Jase Bauer has really struggled at quarterback for Central Michigan this season. The Ankeny, Iowa, native averages only 6.2 yards per attempt and has nine turnover-worthy plays compared to just six big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Of those 146, Bauer ranks 116th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That's a problem because that's how offenses can attack Northern Illinois' defense.
Central Michigan hasn't really run the ball effectively either. Lead back Myles Bailey is averaging just 4.1 yards per carry on the season, and the Chippewas are outside the top 80 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
Most importantly for CMU, though, it hasn't taken advantage of its scoring opportunities. The Chippewas rank 117th in Finishing Drives, which is bad when they're already struggling to move the ball.
The real problem for Central Michigan is it can't stop anybody right now, as it allows 5.9 yards per play and ranks 126th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Chips are struggling against both the run and the pass, but most importantly, they're allowing 4.6 points per scoring opportunity, which is 121st in the nation.
Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northern Illinois and Central Michigan match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 121 |  |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 112 | |
Central Michigan Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 107 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 115 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 26 | 112 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 102 | 111 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 94 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (99) | 27.9 (83) |
| Rush Rate | 53.9% (59) | 56.3% (47) |
Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's going to be a chilly 32 degrees in Mount Pleasant on Tuesday night, which is not ideal weather for Central Michigan to effectively pass the ball — and it's not like Bauer has been effective enough to torch a below-average secondary anyway.
Plus, given Northern Illinois' improvements defensively over the past three games, it's hard to see how Central Michigan is going to put a ton of points on the board.
There are real worries here about how Central Michigan can stop Northern Illinois. The Huskies have a good rushing attack to go along with an improving quarterback in Lombardi, which should be enough to win and cover on the opening night of MACtion.
I have Northern Illinois projected as a -8.1 favorite, so I like the value on the Huskies at -5.
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