The Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5, 4-4 MAC) take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6, 4-3 Mountain West) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Monday, Dec. 23.
This is your prototypical messy bowl game with both starting quarterbacks in the portal.
Fresno State will be without Mikey Keene, while Northern Illinois will have to make do without Ethan Hampton.
Those aren't the only key players who will be sitting out this game. Just take a look at the other starters who will be out for each respective team.
Fresno State:
- WR Jalen Moss
- WR Raylen Sharpe
- CB Alzillion Hamilton
- CB Julian Neal
- CB Cam Lockridge
- DT Gavriel Lightfoot
- DT Jacob Holmes
- LB Phoenix Jackson
Northern Illinois:
- WR Trayvon Rudolph
- S Santana Banner
- DT Skyler Gill-Howard
- DE Jalonnie Williams
Fresno State has obviously been hit harder by the sheer number of impact players who won't be out on the field in Boise on Monday afternoon. The wide receiver room was hit particularly hard, as two of the three projected starters have four combined catches on the season.
It does look like Mac Dalena will play despite declaring for the NFL Draft, so I'm assuming he will get the lion's share of the targets.
The lack of known commodities on the outside is particularly troublesome for a Fresno State offense that simply can't run the ball, ranking 128th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 119th in EPA per Rush.
And while NIU has a few defensive linemen out, that's a position where they possess plenty of depth.
Northern Illinois enters as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under of 40.
Let's dive into my Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State predictions and college football picks for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Monday, Dec. 23.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Prediction
- Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Pick: Under 40
My Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois best bet is for both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Odds
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 40 -110 / -110 | -165 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 40 -110 / -110 | +140 |
- Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Spread: Northern Illinois -3.5 (-110) · Fresno State +3.5 (-110)
- Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Over/Under: 40 Points
- Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Moneyline: Northern Illinois -165 · Fresno State +140
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Preview
NIU finished 7-5 but probably deserved a better season.
After pulling off a road stunner against Notre Dame, it lost a number of heartbreakers with four of its five defeats coming by a single possession and many coming when it was the better team statistically.
This was one of the best G5 defenses but one of the worst offenses.
Meanwhile, Fresno State finished 6-6, which seems like a just result for as mediocre of a Mountain West team as you might imagine. The Bulldogs had two wins over bowl teams in San Jose State and Colorado State.
I have them rated about 80th in offense, defense and special teams. However, the former two obviously take a hit with a shorthanded roster on both sides of the ball.
It's worth mentioning that Fresno will have an edge on special teams. The Bulldogs aren't anything special in that department, but NIU is dreadful in the third phase.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northern Illinois and Fresno State match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 57 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 56 | |
Fresno State Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 26 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 31 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 60 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (86) | 26.6 (59) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (16) | 47% (116) |
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Pick & Prediction
It's hard to see Fresno State having much success on offense given its total lack of running game and major holes at wide receiver against a dominant Northern Illinois secondary even without safety Santana Banner.
On the season, NIU ranks in the top 10 in both EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate allowed. The Huskies can blanket opposing receivers and have what I consider to be a top-40 defense in the country.
Fresno has two quarterbacks listed with the "OR" designation on the depth chart, so you may see both Joshua Wood and Jayden Mandal. Wood is more of the runner, while Mandal is more of the traditional passer.
I'd assume they try to run a lot of read option with Wood, who has been used in certain situations this season (48 snaps). However, NIU has shut down running quarterbacks all season. Take a glance at what some have done against the Huskies:
- Riley Leonard (Notre Dame): 11 carries for 16 yards (9 for 39 when removing sacks)
- C.J. Ogbonna (Buffalo): 9 for -18 (6 for 1)
- CJ Bailey (NC State): 10 for 22 (8 for 25)
- Taisun Phommachanh (UMass): 13 for 27 (10 for 40)
Without flukes, takeaways or trick plays, it should be a long day for the Fresno State offense.
Similarly, I don't see an NIU offensive explosion in the cards. It was already a very poor offense and now won't have its starting quarterback or most dangerous weapon in Trayvon Rudolph.
You can expect runs, runs and more runs from Gavin Williams and Telly Johnson. Both should find success behind an underrated offensive line, especially against a Fresno State defensive line that will be without its top two defensive tackles, which will cause a true freshman to slide into the starting lineup.
I expect some long, clock-winding drives from the Huskies. Don't be surprised if they go for it on fourth down a few times as well, which could ultimately decide the outcome of this game.
From a side perspective, I'd lean NIU, but I'm not running to the window to lay points with a backup quarterback in what should be a very ugly, low-scoring game.
I actually prefer the under despite the extremely low number for a bowl game.
Give me under 40 in what I think will play out to something like a 20-13 game, assuming we can avoid any key mistakes by the backup quarterbacks in their own territory, which is always a risk with a number this low.
Let's just hope the fourth-down variance works in our favor.
Pick: Under 40
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Monday, Dec. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Northern Illinois takes on Fresno State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Monday, Dec. 23 at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
