The Northern Illinois Huskies (2-1) take on the NC State Wolfpack (2-2) in Carter-Finley Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 28, at 12:o0 p.m. ET on The CW.
NC State enters this Week 5 contest as consensus 7.5-point favorite on the spread over Northern Illinois (NC State -7.5), while the total sits at over/under 46.5 points. NC State is a -285 favorite on the moneyline, with Northern Illinois +230 to pull off the upset.
The Huskies beat Notre Dame 16-14 in Week 2 but then dropped a game to Buffalo by three. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack allowed 51 points to Tennessee and 59 points to Clemson.
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Northern Illinois vs NC State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Northern Illinois vs. NC State Prediction
- Northern Illinois vs. NC State Pick: Northern Illinois to cover the spread (Bet to +6.5)
My NC State vs. Northern Illinois best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs. NC State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| N. Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
- Northern Illinois vs NC State spread: NC State -7.5
- Northern Illinois vs NC State over/under: 46.5 points
- Northern Illinois vs NC State Moneyline: NC State-285, Northern Illinois +230
Northern Illinois vs. NC State College Football Week 5
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois got bit last week by one of the scariest things on the planet:
The Let-Down Spot.
After shocking the college football world with their 16-14 victory against Notre Dame in South Bend, Northern Illinois had a week off to celebrate, read newspaper clippings, and pick things up against Buffalo — where the Huskies promptly lost by three in overtime.
But the scoreboard doesn't tell the whole story.
Despite losing the game, Northern Illinois out-gained Buffalo in total yardage, 359 to 184. The Huskies also controlled the possession battle, holding the ball for over 26 minutes. They converted nine third downs to Buffalo's two.
So, where did things go wrong?
Northern Illinois made costly errors, turning the ball over twice and missing a 39-yard field goal. If the Huskies can clean that up, this is a good football team with the balance on both sides of the field to beat anyone in various ways.
Northern Illinois ranks in the top 50 nationally in Pass and Rush Success Rate. The Huskies are even better in Line Yards (16th) and Quality Drives (15th). They boast a legitimately great offense that can beat you in multiple ways.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton has tallied six touchdowns to one interception. Still, that touchdown number could be even higher if Northern Illinois gets better at finishing drives (106th in the country currently).
Antario Brown and Gavin Williams are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. NC State's defense has been better against the pass (59th) than the run (89th), so expect both Huskies backs to see a heavy workload.
NC State Wolfpack
There may not be a more disappointing team in the country than NC State through four weeks.
The Wolfpack's record sits at 2-2, but it feels even worse.
Nothing has been easy, starting with a Week 1 game in which the Wolfpack trailed by four points entering the fourth quarter at home against Western Carolina. Since then, NC State has lost to Tennessee by 41, Clemson by 24 and secured a come-from-behind victory over Louisiana Tech after trailing by 11 at the half.
The eye test has been as bad as the numbers, but the numbers don't inspire much confidence either.
The offense cannot consistently run the ball, ranking 103rd nationally in Rush Success and 102nd in Line Yards. It will be an uphill battle against the Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 17th against the run.
The defense has been just as gross. The Wolfpack defense ranks outside the top 50 in all key metrics. Against the two quality opponents they have played (Tennessee and Clemson), the Wolfpack have allowed scores on 14 of 22 drives. Clemson scored touchdowns on seven of their first eight drives in that game before letting their foot off the gas.
The biggest thing to watch for NC State is the health of their quarterback, Grayson McCall. McCall left the game against Louisiana Tech in Week 3 with an undisclosed injury, and the coaching staff still has not provided an update, even after McCall missed the entire hame against Clemson in Week 4.
It's safe to say his status is up in the air going forward, and that is yet another question mark for a Wolfpack team full of them.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northern Illinois and NC State match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 94 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 124 | |
NC State Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 133 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 89 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 47 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 74 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 131 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (76) | 30.8 (123) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (34) | 52% (79) |
Northern Illinois vs. NC State Pick
Given McCall's (lack of) status, it is hard to believe NC State will turn things around this week against a Northern Illinois team looking for a bounceback.
The Huskies have the advantage all over the field, and if McCall is out, they should be able to force NC State into plenty of negative plays.
Northern Illinois' defense ranks 21st in Havoc rate, while NC State's offense is 133rd in Havoc allowed.
With opportunities for big plays on both sides, I'm betting the Huskies will cover comfortably.
Pick: Northern Illinois +6.5
How to Watch Northern Illinois vs NC State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | The CW |
NC State vs. Northern Illinois kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday on The CW. The game is also streaming live on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
Betting Trends
- Northern Illinois is 2-1 SU and ATS
- NC State is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS
