There’s nothing like a little midnight football as we head to the middle of the Pacific Ocean where the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-2) host the Northern Iowa Panthers (2-1).
Northern Iowa is racking up its miles as this will be the third week in a row on the road. It fell to the hands of Nebraska in Lincoln last week, 34-3, and before that, it came out with wins against St. Thomas and Valparaiso.
After securing a victory in Week 1, the Bows have fallen twice in a row to UCLA and Sam Houston State – both less than ideal programs to lose to. It seems as if Hawaii is set for another disappointing year, but at least it gets to play football in Hawaii.
Hawaii is favored by 7.5 points on the spread in this game, while the total checks in at 48.5. The Warriors are -285 on the moneyline, as well.
Where does the betting value lie? Read more for my Northern Iowa vs Hawaii prediction.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Prediction
- Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Pick: Under 48.5
My Northern Iowa vs Hawaii best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Odds
| N. Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Point Spread: Northern Iowa +7.5 (-110) · Hawaii -7.5 (-110)
- Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Moneyline: Northern Iowa +230 · Hawaii -285
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Preview
Northern Iowa Panthers Betting Preview: Heavy on the Run
Northern Iowa is awfully lucky to be where it is in the standings. It could easily be 1-2. We knew that it would fall to Nebraska last week, but the win against St. Thomas shouldn’t have been that difficult.
The Panthers’ quarterback play has left much to be desired. Redshirt junior QB Aidan Dunne has only completed 52% of his passes, with three passing touchdowns and one interception.
I suppose the lack of turnovers is the one silver lining here, but Dunne looks like he plays to survive. UNI will need to get a lot more out of him in order to improve.
Because of that, there’s not much in the aerial game that makes the Panthers stand out. Dunne hardly throws the ball, so we won’t see a ton of airing it out.
The one aspect of UNI’s game that blows my mind is its run game. How about Tye Edwards? The dynamic back is averaging almost nine yards per carry on 39 total carries. That’s as explosive as you can get, but sometimes it feels like the Panthers rely on him too much.
This defense is fine when it's playing teams of their level. I’m not sure Hawaii is at that level, as it ranks in the lowest tier of all offensive aspects. It does like to throw a lot, so Fletcher Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Cabral-Martin will be tested a bunch.
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: An Ineffective Offense
That brings us to Hawaii, who certainly play like it’s on island time.
Brayden Schager will continue to lead the charge, but I’m discouraged by his numbers. He’s thrown for four touchdowns, and he’s also been picked off three times, all while completing only 53% of his passes.
He’s also led Hawaii to ranking 101st in Passing Play Success Rate, 132nd in explosiveness and 106th in Passing Down SR.
Is Schager that bad, or does he not have efficient weapons? Well, his favorite target is Pofele Ashlock, who’s a fine receiver, averaging just under 13 yards per catch. Another option is Dekel Crowdus, who can go off for an explosive play.
Aside from that, there’s not much else to write home about.
With the Bows’ emphasis on letting it fly, there’s very little emphasis on the ground game. They’re 132nd in rushing plays rate because Landon Sims has yet to make a real impact with 3.7 yards per carry.
There's a lot to like on the defensive end, though, as they’ve only allowed 23.5 points per game. That number is a little skewed due to the stinker they put up against Sam Houston last week. In the first two weeks, respectively, Hawaii allowed only 14 and 16 points, then SHS put up 31 on it.
Hawaii does a solid job stopping the pass and with Dunne’s inability to impact the game through the air, I have to imagine the run game will be in full effect.
It’s not like the Warriors defend the run poorly, but they could be better. They’re 67th in Rush Defense SR but 72nd in explosiveness allowed, which could be huge for Northern Iowa and Edwards.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Pick & Prediction
I’ll make this short and sweet.
I’m extraordinarily bearish on both of these programs and their ability to generate any form of offense.
Both programs can’t throw the ball at an efficient rate, while the only aspect that the Panthers do well is running.
There’s a lot of value to be had on the under. Northern Iowa is going to run down the clock with its run game, and we can probably expect Hawaii to have a few three-and-outs with its inability to both run and throw at an efficient level.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
How to Watch Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sep. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11:59 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Spectrum PPV |
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii Betting Trends
- 75% of the bets are on Hawaii to cover the spread against UNI.
- Meanwhile, 94% of the money is on Hawaii to cover the spread against the Panthers.
