The Northwestern State Demons (0-2) take on the South Alabama Jaguars (0-2) at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 12 on ESPN+.
South Alabama enters Thursday's matchup as a -35.5 favorite, while the over/under sits at 58.5. But is Northwestern State getting enough respect in this spot?
Let's dive into my Northwestern State vs. South Alabama prediction for Thursday, Sept. 12.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama Prediction
- Pick: Northwestern State +37.5
My Northwestern State-South Alabama best bet is on the Demons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern State vs South Alabama Odds
| Northwestern State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -112 | 60 -110 / -110 | N/A |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -108 | 60 -110 / -110 | N/A |
- Spread: Northwestern State +37.5 (-112) · South Alabama -37.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 60 Points
NCAAF Week 3: Northwestern State Football vs South Alabama Football Preview
Northwestern State Demons Betting Preview: Plenty of Big Plays
Northwestern State comes into this matchup after suffering a close 37-31 home loss to Prairie View A&M. The Demons had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line in the final seconds and couldn’t punch it in for the game-winning score.
Northwestern State was predicted to finish last in the Southland Conference this season. Through two games to this point, it has actually improved quite a bit offensively compared to expectations.
Running back Kennieth Lacy and wide receiver Myles Kitt-Denton have been bright spots for the Demons, as they each have a pair of touchdowns to their name.
They have both been big-play threats as well, with Lacy averaging 9.2 yards per carry and Kitt-Denton racking up 28.8 yards per reception.
The defense remains a work in progress, but this unit has been opportunistic so far. The Demons have forced four turnovers while committing just one.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Questions at Quarterback
South Alabama enters 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in two games it was favored in.
The Jaguars offense sputtered last week against Ohio in a 27-20 defeat. Electric dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez was held out due to a toe injury, and his status for this contest Thursday night is uncertain.
Backup Bishop Davenport is also a dual-threat signal-caller, and he stepped in to complete 23-of-37 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown pass to electric wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett.
However, the second half saw long, clock-consuming drives by Ohio that kept South Alabama’s offense on the sideline. The Jaguars defense struggled to stop the Bobcats' rushing attack, as Ohio ran for 209 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
On the ground offensively, South Alabama hasn't found a way to run the ball consistently. On the season, the Jaguars have one rush of 20 yards or longer.
The lack of explosiveness and Havoc Allowed on the ground has caused South Alabama to rely far too heavily on the pass so far this season.
How to Bet My Northwestern State vs South Alabama Prediction
There are quite a few factors at play in this matchup.
South Alabama travels three weeks in a row after this matchup and certainly needs a win here. The road journey starts with a trip to take on Appalachian State in conference play next Thursday in a game that's much more important for the trajectory of its season.
I would guess the Jaguars are working in some App State prep for next week sprinkled in with their Northwestern State preparation this week.
The status of Lopez at quarterback is also significant. The Jags are playing his status close to the vest, as head coach Major Applewhite revealed that he's practicing and the team hopes to have him back but might have to wait another week. Toe injuries are notorious for lingering, and I'd expect Lopez's mobility to be impacted if he does suit up.
Furthermore, there's impending hurricane-related weather scheduled to hit Mobile, Alabama, midweek, which will bring heavy rainfall, high-speed winds, tornado threats and coastal flooding into the picture. Local reports say this weather episode will ramp up on Thursday.
While light rain alone is not enough to affect betting outcomes significantly, high winds and heavy rain can. This severe weather could impact coaching decisions and offensive game plans.
My prediction is that South Alabama will do enough to win comfortably, but I'm not sold on the Jaguars extending the margin past the current line.
There are major questions surrounding the offensive line that need to be worked out, and the running game has left a lot to be desired.
If the ground game can't improve, South Alabama will again be forced to rely on its aerial attack. Given the current weather forecast and a backup quarterback potentially taking snaps, that would put the Jaguars in a tough spot.
There's a drop-off from Lopez to Davenport at quarterback, and whether Lopez is healthy or not, I would expect Davenport to get some work in the second half either way.
Meanwhile, Northwestern State has shown enough on offense to keep this final score somewhat respectable.
With bad weather, quarterback injuries and a team potentially looking ahead to conference play, Northwestern State +35.5 is worth a small play Thursday night.
Pick: Northwestern State +37.5 (Play to +35.5)
How to Watch South Alabama vs Northwestern State
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
South Alabama vs Northwestern State Betting Trends
- South Alabama has started the season 0-2 both straight up and against the spread.
- The Jaguars have cashed the over and under once apiece.
- While Northwestern State is 0-2 straight up, it has covered one game this season.
NCAAF Weather: Northwestern State-South Alabama Forecast
Strong winds and heavy rain could impact Thursday's college football game significantly.
