Northwestern vs Iowa Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
At 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Iowa hosts Northwestern in a conference matchup that is technically football.
Northwestern enters this game with a 1-6 record and riding a six-game losing streak. The Wildcats hold a 3-4 record against the spread, and they've gone under the total in four games this year.
Meanwhile, Iowa comes in with a 3-4 record and coming off of a 44-point loss to Ohio State. The Hawkeyes sit 3-4 against the spread and have gone under in five games of their seven games this season.
The weather shouldn't create a significant impact on the game. Winds are forecasted to range from 6.5 to 7.4 miles per hour, and there's no rain in the forecast. While these winds may have a slight impact on special teams, it's not likely to create any major difficulties.
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern has yet to win a game on American soil this season. Since defeating Nebraska in Ireland in their season opener, the Wildcats have dropped seven straight.
They've averaged 18.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play through these eight games to go along with a 40% Success Rate and an average of 3.25 points per opportunity.
Despite their struggles, they play with a top-10 pace at 22.2 seconds per play.
Whether it's Ryan Hilinski or Brendan Sullivan under center, there are major questions about the Wildcats' passing attack. Hilinski remains questionable after exiting the Wisconsin game with a concussion.
Through the air, Northwestern has averaged 41 pass attempts per game for an average of 262 yards. It also owns a 41% Passing Success Rate and has recorded 3.4 passes of at least 20 yards per game.
Evan Hull has led the team with 547 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Wildcats own a 42% Rushing Success Rate from 36.7 rush attempts per game and 3.5 yards per attempt.
Their line has generated 2.76 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 17.3% Stuff Rate.
On the other side of the ball, Northwestern has allowed 28.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play. Opponents own a 44% Success Rate and score 3.76 points per opportunity.
The Cats generate Havoc on 15% of plays and have allowed an average of 3.85 20-plus yard plays per game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa holds a 3-4 record and a 1-3 record in Big Ten play.
The incompetency of this offense has been heavily discussed this season, but it's always worth pointing out when preparing to bet an Iowa game.
The Hawkeyes average just 14.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play to go along with a 33% Success Rate and 2.28 points per opportunity. The offensive line has also struggled, allowing Havoc on 22% of plays.
However, the most jarring statistic might be that they've scored only seven offensive touchdowns this season, while the defense has scored three.
Maybe Brian Ferentz was right when he said there wasn't any upside to benching Spencer Petras for Alex Padilla. But neither quarterback has much of a chance when the game plan sets them up for failure.
As a pair, they've completed 52.7% of their passes for an average of 5.48 yards per attempt. They've thrown just two touchdowns compared to six interceptions and own a 32% Passing Success Rate.
The Hawkeyes run the ball on 47% of plays and have averaged 2.6 yards per attempt. They've distributed the workload between a few backs with four players recording over 30 rush attempts.
Leshon Williams leads the team with 267 yards and two touchdowns. Iowa boasts a 34% Rushing Success Rate, and its line has created an average of 2.65 Line Yards per attempt while allowing a 17.3% Stuff Rate.
However, the best unit on the field this game will be Iowa's defense.
The Hawkeyes rank inside of the top 10 in scoring defense at 16.1 points per game. They also allow a 38% Success Rate and 3.19 points per opportunity, both of which rank inside the top 30 nationally.
They generate Havoc on 17% of plays and allow an average of 4.1 yards per play. They've also been great at defending explosiveness, giving up the second-fewest 20-yard plays nationally.
Northwestern vs Iowa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Iowa match up statistically:
Northwestern Offense vs Iowa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 30 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 19 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Iowa Offense vs Northwestern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 124 | 83 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 130 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 105 | 12 |
| PFF Coverage | 127 | 1 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 126 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.2 (10) | 28.7 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 47.2% (99) | 54.5% (61) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Northwestern vs Iowa Betting Pick
Bettors have stepped up to the counter to back the Wildcats. As of writing, 61% of bets and 77% of the money have come in on Northwestern.
With an 11-point spread, it's hard to imagine Iowa's offense scoring enough to cover, but it's also difficult to imagine Northwestern finding any success against Iowa's defense.
With both offenses having major concerns, that points the best bet in one direction.
My preferred play is on the under at 37.5, but I'm keeping my bets small because Iowa's defense has a tendency to score.
Pick: Under 37.5 |
