Iowa (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) looks to rebound from its loss to Michigan State when it hosts Northwestern (3-4, 1-3) at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Northwestern has had an exciting season. Two weeks ago, the Huskies pulled off a stunning upset on the road against Maryland but followed it up by only scoring three points and getting blown out by Wisconsin.
The Wildcats are sitting at 3-4 right now with a demanding schedule upcoming, so it would take a miracle for them to get to bowl eligibility.
Iowa's defense stood tall in the red zone repeatedly, but its offense didn't do enough to help against Michigan State. The loss drops the Hawkeyes to 4-3 on the season and ends any outside shot of getting into the Big Ten Championship game.
That being said, there have been improvements for the Hawkeyes, and they have the second-best running back in college football who has the potential for a big game on Saturday.
Iowa is a 14-point favorite on the spread with a 38-point over/under. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on Big Ten Network.
Let's dive into my Northwestern vs Iowa predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.
Northwestern vs Iowa Prediction, Picks
- Northwestern vs Iowa Picks: Over 37.5
My Northwestern vs Iowa best bet is for both teams to go over the total, with the best available line at ESPNBet Sportsbook.
Northwestern vs Iowa Odds, Spread, Lines
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +500 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -700 |
- Northwestern vs Iowa Spread: Iowa -14.5
- Northwestern vs Iowa Over/Under: 38.5 Points
- Northwestern vs Iowa Moneyline: Iowa -700 · Northwestern +500
Northwestern vs Iowa Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Lackluster Offense
Outside of the game against Maryland, Northwestern's offensive has struggled.
The Wildcats only average 4.3 yards per play and rank 124th nationally in Success Rate. The problem is everything because they haven't been able to move the ball on the ground or through the air.
Jake Lausch has been the starter since Week 3, and he's been okay in games versus Maryland, Indiana, and Eastern Illinois.
However, against elite secondaries like Wisconsin and Washington, he's struggled. In both of those games, his PFF Passing Grade has been below 55, and he's been below 100 yards passing in both games as well. That does not bode well for his game against Iowa.
Northwestern has been able to break off some big runs this season, which is its only hope of moving the ball against Iowa.
The Wildcats rank 15th nationally in Rush Explosiveness, with much of that having to do with Jake Lausch using his legs. He's rushed the ball 40 times this season, and 10 carries have gone for at least 10 yards.
To slow down Iowa, you have to slow down Kaleb Johnson. Michigan State was able to do it for most of the game, but I am not sure Northwestern will be able to stop him. The Wildcats rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate allowed and have done a poor job getting backs down on first contact, ranking 98th in PFF's Tackling Grade.
Johnson has one of the highest yards per carry after contact averages in college football, so it will likely be a long day for the Wildcats.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Success Through Johnson's Running
The Iowa offense centers around their star back, Kaleb Johnson.
He was held in check against Michigan State last weekend outside of a 75-yard run, but he should have had a much easier time running the ball on Saturday.
The reason Johnson is so good is twofold.
First, he has an outstanding offensive line. Iowa's offensive line has been together for a long time and is opening up huge running holes for Johnson. The Hawkeyes rank 16th nationally in PFF's Run-Blocking Grade.
Second, Johnson is excellent at breaking tackles. He averages 5.1 yards per carry after contact and has forced 43 missed tackles, the sixth most in the nation.
Iowa needs to improve its passing attack. Cade McNamara has to be better when Iowa's rushing attack is getting stuffed, and there is pressure on him to beat the defense with his arm.
McNamara only has a PFF Passing Grade of 65.4 and averages 5.9 yards per attempt. He's only eclipsed 200 yards passing once this season against Illinois State, so it's clear that Iowa needs to run the ball to be successful on offense.
Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester is also in a bit of a predicament. His RPO-style offense in the past worked well with a mobile quarterback, which McNamara isn't at this stage of his career. That is why you've seen former Northwestern quarterback Brendan Sullivan used more often in the red zone as a runner, but he is extremely limited as a passer.
The Hawkeyes have long been known for their defense, but this season, they haven't been elite. Teams have been putting up pretty good numbers against them, as the Hawkeyes rank 65th in EPA per Play allowed. Ohio State and Michigan State showed that you can run the ball on Iowa's defensive front.
Although the Hawkeyes are doing an excellent job of not allowing big plays on the ground, they rank 101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed, which is concerning and does give Northwestern a chance of moving the ball in this game.
Northwestern vs Iowa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Iowa match up statistically:
Northwestern Offense vs. Iowa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 101 |  |
| Line Yards | 124 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 128 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 34 | |
Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 32 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 98 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 5 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 88 | 11 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 54 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.0 (108) | 29.3 (116) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (78) | 61% (16) |
Northwestern vs Iowa Pick & Prediction
Iowa totals are always set very low because, historically, the Hawkeyes were at both ends of the spectrum: having an elite defense and one of the worst offenses in the country.
That pendulum is starting to swing closer and closer to the middle now because Iowa's offense has gotten a lot better now that they can block up front for an elite running back like Kaleb Johnson, but the defense has taken a step back, both defending the run and in the secondary.
Northwestern hasn't been able to move the ball very well this season. Still, Iowa just allowed a well below-average offense like Michigan State to average 6.7 yards per play and have a 54% Success Rate on offense. Why can't Northwestern do the same?
On the other hand, Northwestern doesn't have much of a chance of stopping Kaleb Johnson in this game, and Iowa's offensive should be able to win the battle in the trenches.
The pace will be slow, and both teams will run the ball at a high rate. Still, I believe both teams will move the rock on the ground, so I think total is too low.
Pick: Over 37.5 (-110, ESPNBet)
Northwestern vs Iowa Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Northwestern vs Iowa will be played at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Big Ten Network.
Northwestern vs Iowa Weather
