The Maryland Terrapins (3-2) are set to host the Northwestern Wildcats (2-3) in a Friday night Big Ten battle in SECU Stadium. Kickoff in College Park is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Wildcats are coming off a 41-24 loss to Indiana while the Terps also lost their last game to the Hoosiers, 42-28.
The Terrapins are 10.5-point favorites in a game with a total of just 45.5 points. These two teams are both 0-2 in conference play and will be looking for their first Big Ten win.
Here are my Northwestern vs. Maryland odds, picks and predictions. Let's dive into my college football picks for Friday, Oct. 11.
Northwestern vs Maryland Prediction
- Northwestern vs Maryland Pick: Maryland Team Total Over 27.5
My Northwestern vs Maryland best bet is on the Terps' team total over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern vs Maryland Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Northwestern vs Maryland Point Spread: Northwestern +11 (-110) · Maryland -11 (-110)
- Northwestern vs Maryland Total: Over/Under 45.5
- Northwestern vs Maryland Moneyline: Northwestern +325 · Maryland -425
Northwestern vs Maryland Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Quarterback Change Hasn't Paid Off
The Wildcats have had a tough start to their conference slate, losing to both Washington and Indiana by double digits. Maryland is a step down from those teams however, so the Wildcats may stand a chance this weekend.
After the first two games of the season, Jack Lausch took over for Mike Wright at quarterback. This change hasn’t paid off yet, as Lausch is averaging -0.29 EPA per drop back compared to -0.07 for Wright.
The Wildcats rank 82nd in success rate, 115th in finishing drives, 108th in explosiveness and 99th in Havoc allowed. They run a 50-50 run-pass split, ranking 73rd in rushing success rate, 83rd in rushing PPA, 89th in passing success rate and 104th in passing PPA.
The Northwestern offensive line has been solid this season, ranking 16th in PFF pass blocking grade and 58th in PFF run blocking grade, meaning the majority of the Havoc allowed is likely coming from the quarterback.
Northwestern ranks 65th in success rate allowed and 16th in finishing drives this season. It's 55th in Havoc generated and 20th in explosiveness allowed.
The Wildcats’ rushing defense has been fantastic, ranking 22nd in success rate, 15th in PPA and third in explosiveness allowed. The issue is that they've faced the run only 36% of the time, which is the second-lowest rate in FBS.
Teams know that the weakness of this team is its passing defense, as it ranks 97th in passing success rate allowed and 97th in PFF coverage grade.
The Wildcats' pass rush is just average as well, ranking 62nd in PFF pass rush grade. However, they're 22nd in passing explosiveness allowed and 56th in passing PPA allowed, as they've forced teams to slowly pass the ball down the field against them rather than allowing big chunk plays.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Strong Offense?
This is good news for Maryland, as it skews towards being a pass-heavy team. The Terrapins rank 53rd in offensive success rate, 49th in finishing drives, 55th in havoc allowed and 75th in explosiveness.
Billy Edwards Jr. is averaging 0.22 EPA per drop back this season, with 1,444 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Star receiver Tai Felton has 46 catches already for 644 yards and five touchdowns on the year.
This Maryland passing attack ranks 55th in success rate and 27th in PPA.
The offensive line is by far the biggest issue on this team. Maryland ranks 132nd in PFF run blocking grade and 127th in pass blocking grade this season, as it's possibly the worst unit in the Big Ten.
This may not pop up in this game — as Northwestern doesn’t have a great pass rush — but it's a matchup to watch out for with Maryland.
Maryland ranks 67th in success rate allowed and explosiveness allowed. It's 29th in finishing drives this season and just 105th in Havoc generated.
The Terrapins rank 53rd in passing success rate allowed and 67th in passing PPA allowed. They’re 99th in PFF coverage grade but 25th in pass rush grade, as they've been able to get after the passer.
They rank 84th in rushing success rate allowed, 61st in rushing PPA allowed and 36th in rushing explosiveness allowed this year, as this has been a weak spot in the defense.
Northwestern vs Maryland
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Maryland match up statistically:
Northwestern Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 43 | |
Maryland Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 60 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 88 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 99 | 100 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 68 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 57 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (96) | 26.4 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (97) | 48% (103) |
Northwestern vs Maryland Pick & Prediction
The biggest unit advantage in this game is likely Maryland’s passing attack against this poor Northwestern secondary.
I think that Edwards and this Terrapins offense will be able to get it done through the air despite their poor pass protection, as Northwestern’s pass rush hasn’t been much better than average and its secondary has been poor.
I don’t have a ton of faith in Maryland’s defense, but I don’t trust Northwestern’s offense, either. Since I don’t have a good read on how this side of the matchup will play out, my favorite bet on this game will be on Maryland’s team total.
At BetMGM right now, you can take Maryland to score over 27.5 points at -140, which I like in this game.
This full-game total has a chance to go over as well, but Northwestern has been too bad on offense this year for me to take on a chance on that bet.
Pick: Maryland Team Total Over 27.5 (-140 · Play to -155)
Northwestern vs Maryland Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | SECU Stadium, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 11 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Northwestern vs Maryland Betting Trends
- 52% of the money is on Maryland to cover the spread while the bets are 50-50.
- 85% of the bets are on the over while 68% of the money is on the same pick.
