Northwestern and Purdue are two of the bottom teams in the Big Ten and will face off in Ross-Ade Stadium this Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET on Big Ten Network from West Lafayette, Indiana.
At this point it’s unlikely that either of these teams will be bowl-eligible in 2024, but this game is an absolute must win if they want to have a chance, particularly for Northwestern.
Northwestern is a one-point road favorite in this matchup with a total of 46.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my Northwestern vs Purdue predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Northwestern vs Purdue Prediction, Picks
- Northwestern vs. Purdue Pick: Purdue ML
My Northwestern vs. Purdue best bet is on Purdue to win the game, with the best line currently available on Fanduel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern vs Purdue Odds, Spread, Lines
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
- Northwestern vs Purdue Spread: Purdue -2.5)
- Northwestern vs Purdue Over/Under: 44.5 Points
- Northwestern vs Purdue Moneyline: Purdue -130 · Northwestern +110
Northwestern vs Purdue Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Struggles On All Fronts
Northwestern (3-5) has dropped their last two Big Ten games against Wisconsin and Iowa. Their hopes of going to a bowl game are likely already dashed, but they will absolutely need to win this one if they want any chance of bowling with Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois on deck.
The Wildcats have had one of the worst offenses in FBS this season, ranking 128th in Success Rate and 133rd in EPA Per Play. They are 125th in Rush Success Rate and 127th in EPA Per Rush this season.
Through the air they rank 121st in Pass Success Rate and 132nd in EPA Per Pass. This has been worse in recent weeks with a change at quarterback as Jack Lausch is averaging -0.35 EPA Per Dropback and a 32% Pass Success Rate compared to -0.07 and 38% for Mike Wright.
While Wright wasn’t playing great, these numbers that Lausch has put up have been far worse, but David Braun stood by Lausch as the starting quarterback for another week with his quotes on Monday.
Braun pointed to offensive line play as being a possible factor in helping Lausch play better but the Wildcats already rank 13th in PFF Pass Blocking grade and 56th in PFF Run Block grades, so it wouldn’t appear that protection has been their issue moving the ball through the air.
Northwestern’s defense ranks 64th in Success Rate allowed and 32nd in EPA Per Play allowed, but they have had dramatic splits. The Wildcats are 112th in Pass Success Rate allowed this season compared to 12th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
If you can pass on Northwestern then you stand a good chance of scoring as they haven’t been good at defending the pass down to down. However, the Wildcats do rank 64th in EPA Per Pass as they have prevented big plays and generated turnovers.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Decent Run Game & Weak Passing
Purdue has now fallen to 1-6 and they are 0-4 in conference play.
The Boilermakers have already fired their offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and are now in the midst of a quarterback controversy. Rather than choosing one starter, Purdue coach Ryan Walters confirmed that both Hudson Card and Ryan Browne will see time under center this weekend.
Hudson Card has played most of the year at quarterback, averaging -0.22 EPA Per Dropback. Card was then injured and replaced by Browne, who played well against Illinois before being shut out by Oregon.
Coming out of the bye you would think that they would have a solid plan for how they will use these two coming into the game but that remains to be seen.
Purdue ranks 27th in offensive success rate this season but 95th in EPA Per Play.
They run a pretty even split between run and pass, but have been much more effective on the ground. The Boilermakers are sixth in Rush Success Rate and 29th in EPA Per Rush compared to 87th in Pass Success Rate and 114th in EPA Per Pass.
Unfortunately for them Northwestern’s pass defense is the weakness on their defense so the Boilermakers will need to figure out their passing situation in order to be able to move the ball in this matchup.
Purdue’s defense has been a major issue this season, ranking 113th in Success Rate allowed and 127th in EPA Per Play allowed. They are 94th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 122nd in EPA Per Rush Allowed, 119th in PFF Run Defense grade, and 126th in PFF Tackling grade.
The passing defense has been even worse, ranking 127th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 124th in EPA Per Pass allowed. They are 83rd in PFF Pass Rush grade but the secondary has been brutal, ranking 132nd in PFF Coverage grade.
Northwestern vs Purdue Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Purdue match up statistically:
Northwestern Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 124 | 129 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 110 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 121 | 124 | |
Purdue Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 42 | 133 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 111 |
| Middle 8 | 114 | 134 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (113) | 29.5 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (85) | 56% (57) |
Northwestern vs Purdue Pick & Prediction
Purdue has one of the slowest offenses in FBS this season, ranking 134th in plays per game and 116th in seconds per play. Northwestern is 111th in seconds per play and 130th in offensive plays per game, so I’d expect this to be a slow-paced game all around. The under could be a good bet in this matchup but I like looking towards a specific side in this game instead.
Northwestern hasn’t been able to run the ball at all on offense and Jack Lausch has struggled mightily this season. Purdue’s defense is bad, but I feel more confident backing them than Lausch.
Purdue’s tough strength of schedule does skew many of their numbers. I think they are a better team than what we have been able to see to this point and I believe this applies to both sides of the ball. The two quarterback situation isn’t ideal but if they can get something going in the passing game coming off the bye, this is the best way to attack Northwestern’s defense.
The Boilermakers have had a terrible season to this point, but I think they should be favored in this game. They should still have the two best quarterbacks in this matchup and can run the ball effectively on offense. Northwestern has been good at stopping the run, which may provide challenges for Purdue, but I still think this team is better than the Wildcats and playing at home, so I will be backing the Boilermakers on the moneyline.
Pick: Purdue ML (-104 at FanDuel) | Bet to -110
How to Watch Northwestern vs Purdue Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Rose-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Northwestern vs Purdue Betting Trends
Northwestern vs Purdue Weather
