Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 8 and our Northwestern vs Wisconsin predictions and college football picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Betting lines
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
Why Northwestern Wildcats Can Cover the Spread
If you’re betting Wisconsin, you’re buying the Badgers at the top of the market.
They just obliterated (lifeless) Purdue and (overrated) Rutgers in back-to-back weeks. The switch from Tyler Van Dyke to Braedyn Locke at quarterback has “seemingly” revitalized the offense, per Twitter and the general betting public.
But I’m far from ready to crown Locke the King in the North.
Yeah, he dominated Rutgers. Whatever.
But his 20-for-31, 360-yard, three-touchdown effort against Purdue was smoke and mirrors – he posted a 58.8 PFF Passing grade in the start behind one big-time throw and two interceptions on two turnover-worthy plays.
And did we forget his Week 5 start against USC? Luke Fickell’s savior completed 13 of his 26 attempts for 180 yards (6.9 YPA) with a score and a pick in a 17-point loss – all against a USC secondary that ranks 120th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
He saw some action in the blowout against Alabama, again completing 13 of 26 passes for a measly 125 yards (4.8 YPA) with zero big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays.
Locke has put together four big-time throws to six turnover-worthy plays this year. Across his two-year Badger career, he’s posted seven big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays. He hasn’t shown us much yet!
Wisconsin is still a rush-first offense (56% rush rate, 40th nationally), and the Badgers plowed through Purdue and Rutgers for 540 combined rushing yards at six YPC. That would be promising if those two opponents didn’t rank in the bottom 15 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed – the Scarlet Knights rank dead last.
Locke is due for a regression game. The Badger rush attack should struggle against a monster step-up in competition – Northwestern’s stout front seven ranks top-10 nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
The whole Wisconsin team is due for a letdown game.
On the contrary, I believe Northwestern is just getting started.
The new starting quarterback, Jack Lausch, figured something out in the second half of the game against Indiana. He started making obscene downfield throws, flashing a level of heretofore unforeseen explosiveness for the Northwestern offense against a top-tier Indiana squad. He ultimately kept pace with the obscenely talented Kurtis Rourke for 30 minutes.
He then proved it wasn’t a flash in the pan, completing 10 of 18 passes against Maryland for over 200 yards at 11.3 YPA. He amassed two big-time throws on an obscene 14.3-yard average depth of target.
The Wildcats generated four explosive passing plays against Indiana (12% rate) and four against Maryland (20% rate). Lausch is a gunslinger sparking a previously lifeless aerial attack.
And he’s in for a big day against Wisconsin, which ranks 118th nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
While safety Hunter Wohler has played well (five receptions for 73 yards on 13 targets, 38.5% completion, 5.6 yards per target), the other top three coverage guys have looked more vulnerable (Preston Zachman, Ricardo Hallman, Nyzier Fourqueran; 30 receptions for 377 yards on 45 targets, 66.7% completion, 8.4 yards per target).
Lausch can rip these fools apart.
Wisconsin’s “breakout” is based on two dominant but slightly skewed performances against two teams that don’t match up well. As such, the Badgers are overvalued.
The Wildcats are undervalued, and the Badgers don’t match up so well against Lausch and a good run defense.
Why Wisconsin Badgers Can Cover the Spread
Here's the thing: you guys are thinking about early-season Wisconsin. Tyler Van Dyke Wisconsin.
Van Dyke getting hurt against Alabama is going to wind up being the best thing for the Badgers this season (no offense, Tyler). But after transferring from Wisconsin in hopes of a fresh start, it quickly became evident that Van Dyke was washed.
Braedyn Locke will lead Wisconsin the rest of the way. In three starts last season as a freshman, he threw five touchdowns with no interceptions despite starting two road games and a home game against Ohio State.
Since taking over for Van Dyke, he's averaging 226.0 yards per game and has six touchdowns with four interceptions.
Wisconsin is 2-1 with Locke as the starter and hung with USC on the road until late in the game. He threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns against Purdue and then completed 71.4% of his passes for 240 yards against an excellent Rutgers defense.
Wisconsin doesn’t have superstar talent, but they spread the ball around well, with four receivers averaging at least 30 yards per game. Will Pauling is the team’s reliable slot receiver with 25 catches on the season, and Vinny Anthony is the big play threat, averaging 26.1 yards per catch.
The Badgers have averaged 21.6 points per game and 4.8 yards per play in Van Dyke’s three starts and 38.3 per game, and 7.2 yards per play in Locke’s three starts.
In the last two games, Wisconsin has scored 94 points, and I expect this offense to keep rolling for another big number against a Northwestern defense that ranks 74th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 118th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
This is an entirely different team with Locke under center, and the market hasn’t entirely adjusted yet.
Why Wildcats Are Better Bet
McGrath: Wisconsin looks like a completely different team. But everything needs context.
Purdue is a disaster. I could throw for 300 and three scores against Purdue. That game was also the Boilermakers' first game following the firing of offensive coordinator Graham Harrell – they were going through it, gifting Wisco some extra possessions.
Rutgers has been a stout defense all year long. However, two defensive captains (Tyreem Powell and Robert Longerbeam) were ruled out before the game, and the Scarlet Knights lost a few more starters during the game. They were banged up and had no chance of competing with second-stringers.
These Badgers are not that much different from the team that struggled to put away Western Michigan and South Dakota. The scoreboard has looked different, but that’s a result of external rather than internal factors.
And Locke wasn’t the driver of these anomalous performances. Locke threw four touchdown passes across the past two games? The Badgers ran for nine.
They amassed 60 more rushing yards than passing yards against Rutgers — Locke finished that game with 0.01 EPA per Dropback and zero explosive passing plays.
Northwestern has a much tougher run defense than Wisconsin’s past two opponents. Locke will be forced into obvious passing downs on Saturday, and — as mentioned — he hasn’t shown enough yet to make me believe he’ll totally transform a previously incompetent passing offense.
The Badgers rank 132nd nationally in Explosiveness and 75th in EPA per Dropback, and I don’t believe they have the juice to target the Wildcats over the top.
Why Badgers Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Tanner wants to tear down Locke’s performance, and then he tries to hype Lausch?
In his career, Lausch has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions. He's completing 53.5% of his passes this season, which ranks 19th in the Big Ten among all quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.
For comparison's sake, he's tied with Michigan quarterback Alex Orji. So, for those who don’t know who Lausch is and haven’t seen him play, picture Orji passing the ball and decide if you want to bet on him.
When you are hyping up a 10-completion performance against Maryland, who everybody knows turns into a pumpkin on Friday nights, you know things aren’t very good.
And conveniently, there was no mention of the game against Washington when Lausch went 8-for-27 (29.6%) for 53 yards and two interceptions. This kid stinks.
He's going to get eaten alive by this Wisconsin defense. The Badgers rank 24th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed. They have not allowed a passing touchdown in four of their six games and have allowed more than 230 passing yards in a game just once all season.
Northwestern ranks 122nd nationally in Success Rate. The Wildcats can’t throw the ball, and they can’t run the ball. They have averaged 21 points per game (109th) and managed just 4.9 yards per play (118th) this season.
The Badgers defense does all the little things right. They rank ninth in the country in PFF's Tackling grades and 11th in their Coverage grades.
Hunter Wohler and Preston Zachman are both lockdown safeties on the backend. Wohler leads the team in tackles, and Zachman has yet to allow a touchdown with two interceptions.
Northwestern’s offense is terrible at everything. It ranks outside of the top 90 nationally in every major offensive stat.
The Badgers have played two elite offenses and completely shut down every other team. Well, the Wildcats do not have an elite offense — they don’t even have an average offense. Wisconsin will have no problem shutting it down.
Northwestern Football Spread: Why Wildcats Will Cover
McGrath: Northwestern used to rank outside the top 90 in every major offensive statistical category. But they posted a 45% Success Rate against Indiana and averaged 10.2 yards per dropback against Maryland.
Lausch struggled in his first start against the third-best pass defense in FBS by EPA per Dropback allowed (Washington), but he performed admirably against the 24th-best pass defense (Indiana) and tore apart the 67th-best.
Mike, you know the comparison to Orji is ridiculous. Lausch is averaging nearly double the YPA.
It’s no surprise that Wisconsin’s defense ranks highly. The Badgers beat down the 112th-ranked (Rutgers) and 124th-best (Purdue) FBS offenses by EPA per Play. Against two downfield passing offenses (Alabama and USC), they allowed 540 passing yards on a 69% completion rate.
I’m not saying Lausch is Jalen Milroe or Miller Moss, but he will chuck the ball downfield and test a Badgers defense that hasn’t been challenged in a month.
Wisconsin Football Spread: Why Badgers Will Cover
Ianniello: If you argue that Wisconsin has dominated against bad or overrated teams, what would you call Northwestern?
Our Action Network Power Ratings have Northwestern with the same Power Rating as Purdue, which Tanner just called a disaster.
While Northwestern has been better at defending the run than the pass (which is a low bar to clear), I still trust the Badgers to move the ball on the ground and overpower this Wildcats defense.
The Badgers have rushed for 537 yards and nine touchdowns over the last two games. What caused the sudden outburst? Just like with the quarterback position, perhaps there is a silver lining to an unfortunate injury.
Starting tailback Chez Mellusi is stepping away from the team to get healthy from nagging injuries, but that has cleared a path for Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker.
After being buried on the depth chart for the Sooners, Walker transferred to Madison looking for more playing time and with Mellusi out, he finally gets his shot as the lead back. He has rushed for 292 yards in the last two games as the top back and ran for three touchdowns in each contest.
Wisconsin ranks a respectable 52nd nationally in Success Rate, but even that doesn’t tell the full story, with only half of the season being with a new quarterback and new running back, both of whom look like major upgrades.
The new and improved Badgers are being underrated here.
Closing Arguments for Northwestern vs Wisconsin Spread
McGrath: Bet Northwestern +7.5
We know the Badgers have a stout defense and a great offensive line. Now, they have a passing and rushing attack that looks very dangerous, and the market is still accounting for metrics from before the offensive changes.
Northwestern’s wins this season have come against a Group of 5 team, an FCS team, and Maryland on a Friday night (which basically makes it a JUCO team).
The metrics being imported into models still take into account the Badgers before the quarterback and running back changes, and I think Wisconsin is better now.
The Badgers are being undervalued in the market, and you need to take advantage of this before things get adjusted.
Ianniello: Bet Wisconsin -7.5
Wisconsin is overvalued and inflated in the markets because of overwhelming back-to-back wins against vastly inferior opponents. Week 8 is the perfect time to sell sky-high on the Badgers, who are due for a big letdown game.
They don’t match up well with Wisconsin, which will stuff their run game and challenge their leaky secondary.
Plus, the situational spot skews heavily toward Northwestern. After playing last Friday night, the Wildcats had an extra day of rest and prep. They get this game at home.
Most importantly, the Badgers don’t play well as big favorites. They’re just 2-6-1 ATS as a seven-plus-point favorite under Coach Luke Fickell, failing to cover by 4.5 points per game.
