Even though Clemson and Notre Dame are two of the best teams in the country, there are a few holes in each statistical profile.
You can use any of those flaws or strengths to make a case for backing the Tigers or Irish in the College Football Playoff. It just depends on what statistics matter to you.
Let's dive into five metrics and mismatches that matter, relying mostly on the wonderful S&P+ statistical profiles from SB Nation.
Clemson's Elite Rushing Stats, On Both Sides
By Stuckey
Clemson averages an NCAA-best 6.8 yards per rush. Notre Dame is at only 4.5 yards per rush, which is 55th in the country. Amazingly, Clemson also leads the nation in yards per rush allowed at 2.4, while Notre Dame is a respectable 34th (3.7).
But how good is 2.4 yards per rush? Here are the teams that allowed fewer than 2.4 yards in a single season over the past 10 years:
- 2016 Alabama (2.0)
- 2009 Texas (2.2)
Yup, that’s it. Clemson’s rush defense ranks in the top three in overall S&P+ Defense (1), Rush Efficiency (3), Rush Explosiveness (1), Opportunity Rate (1) and Stuff Rate (3).
That spells potential disaster against a Notre Dame offense that ranks 116th in Opportunity Rate and 118th in Stuff Rate.
How Good Is Clemson's Secondary?
By Steve Petrella
Entering this season, we all had questions about Clemson's defensive backs. The defensive line was so good that it might not even matter in most games, but against a top-tier passing attack, I had concerns Clemson would hold up.
Everyone kind of forgot about this major flaw until the final game of the regular season against South Carolina, when the Gamecocks hit big play after big play and put up 600 yards of total offense, including 9.25 per pass attempt.
Against Texas A&M in Week 2, another quality passing attack, Clemson gave up 430 passing yards (10.8 per play).
Clemson's pass defense ranks No. 6 nationally per S&P+, but I think that has a lot to do with the pressure it generates up front and its weak schedule. If Notre Dame (33rd in adjusted sack rate on offense) can protect Ian Book, he can make plays against the Tigers' back end.
ND's offense averaged almost one more yard per play after Book took over for Brandon Wimbush in Week 4. The Irish scored at least 31 points in all but two of Book's eight games.
Nationally, Book ranks 11th in yards per attempt and fourth in completion percentage.
By Stuckey
I don’t expect Notre Dame to do much on the ground, other than to utilize the running game to keep the Clemson defense honest and setup play action. This game will be up to Book and the passing game.
The good news is Notre Dame can protect the quarterback (No. 12 in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs), which is critical against an elite Clemson pass rush that ranks No. 9 in that same category.
Field Goal Kicking
By Stuckey
Clemson's Greg Huegel just doesn’t have a reliable leg, as the senior went nine of 13 on the year. He has attempted at least one field goal in each of his four seasons at Clemson, and he has gone 52-68 (76.5%) with eight missed extra points. He is also just 14 of 24 between 40-49 yards and has never attempted a field goal from more than 50.
Notre Dame also has a senior kicker in Justin Yoon, who has a much bigger and more reliable leg. Yoon, who has also kicked for four years in South Bend, has gone 58 of 72 (80.5%) and has missed only six extra points. He has a higher percentage between 40-49 and is actually capable from 50-plus.
Expect Clemson to have to go for it more around the 30-yard line, which will give the Notre Dame defense a shot to swing the momentum with a turnover on downs.
The Irish are also much more likely to hit a long field goal at the end of the half or game, which might not win them the game, but it certainly could help them cover.
And Special Teams in General
By Steve Petrella
Clemson can return kicks … but that's about it. The Tigers rank 90th or worse in punt efficiency, field goal value and punt return efficiency.
Notre Dame isn't elite on special teams, but like Stuckey mentioned, has a much more reliable kicking game. Against a higher-quality opponent like Notre Dame, Clemson wouldn't be able to get away with its poor special teams.
Red Zone: Something Has to Give
By Stuckey
Finishing drives will be key. Clemson’s offense ranks No. 4 vs. Notre Dame’s No. 4 defense. Can Notre Dame’s defense hold Clemson to field-goal attempts (where it struggles) or create a few turnovers on downs?
Clemson ranks 11th overall at 74.2% in red zone defense and has only allowed a ridiculous 14 touchdowns on 31 trips (Alabama’s third-ranked red zone defense has allowed 17 touchdowns on 30 trips).
Notre Dame will have to be better than its 86.3% red zone scoring percentage (47th) and score touchdowns at a higher clip than 62.7%.
