The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) take on the Indiana Hoosiers (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) in the first game of the expanded College Football Playoff on Friday, Dec. 20. Kickoff from South Bend is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Led by new head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has suffered only 1 loss on the season — a 38-15 defeat at the hands of Ohio State on Nov. 23.
Notre Dame is in the same boat with 1 loss, but that defeat was a 16-14 home loss to MAC foe Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 that could have kept it out of the playoff if it hadn't run the table.
The Fighting Irish enter as -7.5 favorites with the over/under at 52.5.
Let's take a look at our Notre Dame vs. Indiana picks and college football predictions for the 2024 College Football Playoff opener on Friday, Dec. 20.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Picks, Predictions
The state of Indiana takes center stage on Friday night in South Bend. The very first game of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff will feature two teams from the Hoosier State.
The Fighting Irish host the Hoosiers in a matchup between two teams that both finished the regular season at 11-1.
For Notre Dame, it was a redemption run after suffering a shocking Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish have had their backs against the wall since mid-September and have passed every test since.
For Indiana, it’s been a true shock-the-world story for a basketball school that hasn’t played in this big of a football game in decades. IU had next to zero expectations from the public entering the year and has gone about its business week after week.
The Hoosiers boast the largest scoring differential of any team in the country, and they dominated pretty much every opponent on the schedule. The lone blemish came against Ohio State in Columbus late in the season.
Curt Cignetti has worked magic in Year 1 in Bloomington, and Marcus Freeman continues to make strides early on in his tenure at Notre Dame.
So, how does our staff feel this showdown will play out from a side and total perspective? There’s a clear consensus as to who we believe will cover the spread and a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to the over/under.
We polled 10 members of our college football staff to see who they're backing to cover the number and what their lean is from a total perspective.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Indiana +7.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is thrilled about this in-state rivalry renewed, and we believe unanimously that Indiana is showing up to the “Cathedral of College Football” fully equipped to give Notre Dame a competitive game.
Notre Dame has been the beneficiary of a middling strength of schedule and hasn’t faced a defense of this caliber since Week 1.
Indiana comes in ranked eighth nationally in Explosiveness allowed, ninth in EPA Per Play allowed and 13th in overall Success Rate allowed.
The front seven has been lights-out against the run all season while allowing just 71 yards per game on 2.5 yards per carry.
Notre Dame runs the ball on 57% of offensive snaps behind Jeremiyah Love, who averages 7.1 yards per carry with 15 touchdowns this season. While the Irish have gashed their last five opponents on the ground, they faced two overmatched service academy defenses, along with weaker front sevens in Florida State, Virginia and USC.
The physicality of the Notre Dame offensive line is not likely to overwhelm Indiana. The Hoosiers have allowed just one explosive rush over their last three games, with two of those matchups coming against Ohio State and Michigan.
Offensively, Indiana has been efficient and explosive behind the consistent play of quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Rourke has thrown for 2,827 yards with a 29:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has four solid options at receiver to throw to.
The Hoosiers rank second nationally in Offensive Success Rate and have really done well to avoid negative plays and stalled drives.
The key for Indiana will be how it performs in early downs, particularly on the ground. The Hoosiers will need first- and second-down run plays that set up third-and-short situations.
Notre Dame ranks 38th in Standard Down Success Rate allowed and 79th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, so Indiana has a path to staying on the field and keeping possession of the ball.
Indiana converts third downs at a 48.5% clip, and the offense has committed only seven turnovers all season. The Hoosiers have also been dominant in the red zone this season, scoring on 62-of-66 possessions with 54 red-zone touchdowns.
Notre Dame has proven to be strong in the red zone over the course of the season, but the Irish have allowed 9-of-12 red-zone possessions to end in touchdowns over their last four games.
Indiana is showing up with full belief that it can win this game. Curt Cignetti has worked wonders this season, and Indiana has the strength along the offensive and defensive lines to hold up here and put pressure on Notre Dame.
Over/Under
Over 52.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 52.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our group is split on the total here with a slight lean toward the over.
Both teams have a path to scoring in this one due to the efficient nature of how both offenses play.
Notre Dame has found itself in higher-scoring affairs due to its offensive explosiveness and turnover variance. Indiana has scored 43 points per game thanks to high efficiency, avoiding turnovers and exceedingly solid play in the red zone.
Indiana will have success if it can run the ball on early downs and keep itself in third-and-manageable downs and distances.
Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke has 29 touchdown passes and has helped the team lead the nation in Offensive EPA Per Pass and Passing Success Rate.
The Notre Dame defense grades out just 108th nationally in Passing Explosiveness allowed and 102nd in Defensive Havoc. The front seven has registered just 61 tackles for loss this season with five coming in each of the last three games. If the Irish are unable to create Havoc and put pressure on the quarterback, Indiana will have success in passing downs.
Offensively, Notre Dame ranks second nationally in Explosiveness and 15th in EPA Per Rush.
Running back Jeremiyah Love hits the hole hard and averages 7.1 yards per carry this season. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been efficient with the ball, throwing for 2,092 yards and 16 touchdowns while limiting mistakes and turnovers.
The Notre Dame offensive line has performed well, as the team has averaged 6.3 yards per carry and surrendered only 15 sacks.
The Irish should be able to run the football and run play-action off it to hit chunk plays with their receivers over the middle of the field.
When looking at some of the simple metrics used to analyze scoring, positive red-zone performance and high execution on third downs are paramount for putting points on the board.
Indiana has converted 48.5% of its third-down attempts and has scored on 62-of-66 red-zone possessions with 54 touchdowns. Notre Dame has converted third downs at a 38.5% rate on the season but has made up for the lack of efficiency with explosives.
When it comes to the red zone, Notre Dame has cashed in on 41-of-49 attempts with 37 touchdowns.
We should see points when these teams cross the opponent's 40-yard line, as Indiana ranks sixth nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives with Notre Dame ranking 48th.
It's also worth noting that we're expecting wind and potential snow in South Bend on Friday night. Snow alone is not a concern, but with winds projected at 13 MPH with 17-24 MPH gusts, the passing game could be impacted on both sides.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
- Notre Dame vs. Indiana Spread: Notre Dame -7.5 · Indiana +7.5
- Notre Dame vs. Indiana Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Notre Dame vs. Indiana Moneyline: Notre Dame -275 · Indiana +220
