The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) and Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2, 7-2 Big Ten) meet in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, Jan. 20.
Notre Dame reached the national title game by toppling Penn State in the Orange Bowl by a score of 27-24. Ohio State, meanwhile, continued its torrid roll through the College Football Playoff and toppled Texas, 28-14.
The Buckeyes enter this game as -8 favorites with the over/under set at 45.5.
Let's take a look at our Notre Dame vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for the CFP National Championship on Monday, Jan. 20.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
On Sept. 7, Notre Dame suffered a 16-14 loss on its home field to the Northern Illinois Huskies.
It turns out the Fighting Irish may have needed that loss, as they've gone on a tear to win their next 13 games and make the College Football Playoff National Championship.
On Oct. 12, Ohio State suffered a 32-31 loss on the road to Oregon and then a 13-10 loss at home to Michigan on Nov. 30.
Well, the Buckeyes have since avenged those losses with three straight multi-score wins in the College Football Playoff, including a 41-21 thrashing of those same Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
And just like that, we're down to two blue bloods vying for the first national title of the 12-team playoff era.
Ohio State pairs a star-studded offense with arguably the nation's best defense. Notre Dame leans on its stingy stop unit and a three-headed monster on the ground to move the ball.
So, which side is better set up for success in this one?
We polled 10 members of our college football staff to get their takes on the spread and over/under, as well as a few other bets for Monday's College Football Playoff National Championship.
Let's dive in.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Ohio State -8
By John Feltman
Our staff is leaning toward laying the points with the Buckeyes, but I will disagree with them here. I realize I faded Ohio State in the last round against Texas, but there's no bias here.
Notre Dame has been the most impressive team in the playoff on the defensive side of the ball, and the strength of this team is going to propel it to a cover.
What does Notre Dame do best? On offense, it's running the football. The Buckeyes defense has been highly effective during this playoff, and you can't question its talent.
The OSU stop unit has few flaws, but it can be vulnerable against the run at times. Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock likes to call many inside zone run concepts, which the Buckeyes have defended well all season.
However, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has been shut down throughout the playoff, especially since he hasn't been at 100% health since the Indiana game. But Love is talented enough to break through here, and I expect the Irish to try their best to milk the clock as much as possible.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Irish have arguably the best secondary in the country. They're loaded with NFL talent, and we saw what the Texas secondary did against these Buckeyes receivers last week.
Ohio State star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was held to one catch for three yards last week, which shouldn't be understated. I expect the Buckeyes to feed him the ball early, often challenging this Irish secondary.
Despite the mismatch against Smith, the Irish secondary is more than capable of holding its own. They rank in the 99th percentile in Pass Success Rate allowed and EPA/Play allowed.
Bleeding the clock on offense and containing the Buckeyes' passing attack is absolutely critical for the Irish here, and I think they're more than capable of hanging around.
Considering the total is 45.5, that provides even more value to the Irish number at +8.5.
I can see why our staff loves the Buckeyes to cover, as there's an apparent talent mismatch on our hands here. But the Irish's offensive style of play and stingy secondary should do enough to keep it a close contest.
Over/Under
Over 45.5 | 8 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 45.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 45.5
By John Feltman
Our staff seems to like the under by a landslide, and I'm right there with them. The total has steamed down from 46, but it sits at 45.5 across most shops. Regardless, it's still above the key number of 45, and I love it there.
I alluded to it above, but Notre Dame's path to covering the number or outright winning will be establishing its run game and remaining stout on the defensive end.
The Irish have done an outstanding job limiting explosive plays throughout the season, which is key in a matchup where they're outclassed at the offensive skill positions.
The Buckeyes can beat teams in so many ways offensively unless they have self-inflicted wounds. They should be able to take advantage of Notre Dame’s suspect run defense and have the offensive front and running back talent to do just that.
However, neither offense goes very fast in tempo, so if both teams rely on their ground games, I have a difficult time seeing how this game goes over the total.
Both defenses also do an excellent job of preventing explosives, so I expect a tough defensive battle throughout the entire contest.
I think Ohio State will have better success scoring in the red zone, but that shouldn’t play too much of a factor in the total. Besides, Notre Dame’s back end is stingy enough to hold firm in the red zone.
The under is easily my favorite play of the matchup, as I think we'll see a low-scoring, tight National Championship.
Other Ways to Bet Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Notre Dame ML +310
Back in late August when we put out our staff preseason futures piece, I wrote about why I was taking the Irish +2500 to win the National Championship.
I’m certainly not jumping ship now.
Notre Dame has a "team of destiny" type of feel to it, and every game has been a playoff game for the Irish since the stunning loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2.
ND now has one more to go get, and it comes against the juggernaut of Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have the most talented roster in America and are rightfully favored in this game. I just get the feeling Ryan Day and company will tense up if this game is close heading into the second half.
The Buckeyes have been frontrunners all season and will once again look to punch ND in the mouth early, as they've done to opponents in each of their first three playoff wins.
But this time, I think the Irish will have a good early plan and will be able to cause some problems for Will Howard and the Ohio State offense.
Marcus Freeman and his two coordinators, Al Golden and Mike Denbrock, form one of the best coaching staffs in America. They have now had right around 11 days to create a blueprint for this one.
When the Irish have the ball, it isn’t always pretty, but Riley Leonard just finds ways to move the ball. I think you’ll see ND take some early shots down the field, expecting OSU to load the box.
The Buckeye cornerbacks can be beaten over the top, and guys like Jaden Greathouse and a healthier Beaux Collins will be ready to go.
Ultimately, I just trust this Notre Dame team to find a way to make this a four-quarter fight.
From there, when it comes down to game situations late, I’ll roll with the team that has the better kicker, the greater togetherness in my eyes, and the looser head coach.
Ryan Day infamously called out Lou Holtz last year in South Bend after a thrilling win in the final seconds.
Just under 16 months later, it will be Freeman talking to the media after an iconic win, with confetti raining down inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Ohio State 1H -4.5
By Greg Liodice
If you read my same-game parlay, you’ll know I think this game is fairly one-sided.
Notre Dame is usually a program that the population resents, but Marcus Freeman has turned this team into a fan favorite. It’s a feel-good story, but the Fighting Irish are lucky to be here.
Their Orange Bowl opponent, Penn State, did everything it could to hand the game to the Irish. The Nittany Lions entered the second half with a 10-3 lead, only to give up 24 second-half points to Notre Dame.
Ohio State is a different animal, filled with savvy veterans and all-world talent, and Notre Dame will have to be close to perfect to even compete.
The Irish have a wonderful defense — one of the top units in the FBS — but they’re rolling out a strategy that the Buckeyes can handle. In the Cotton Bowl, Texas played zone coverage, which stifled Ohio State’s most lethal target in Jeremiah Smith.
Notre Dame has said that it doesn’t plan to play zone, which makes sense. Man coverage has worked all season, and it’ll need a complete disaster to switch to zone.
That’s why I lean toward Ohio State taking at least a one-possession lead heading into the half.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +285 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -365 |
- Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Spread: Notre Dame +8 · Ohio State -8
- Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Moneyline: Notre Dame +285 · Ohio State -365
