The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) and Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2, 8-1 Big Ten) meet in the Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 9.
The College Football Playoff spent a decade starting with four teams in the national semifinals. In our new format of 12 teams and home games in the first round, the final four is now comprised of programs playing off 2 consecutive playoff wins.
The Capital One Orange Bowl is set with 6th-seeded Penn State taking on 7th-seeded Notre Dame. These programs are knotted up 9-9-1 all-time, last meeting in 2006 after a 14-year hiatus.
The Nittany Lions have covered 2 straight in the playoff against SMU and Boise State, a path that has left other fan bases disgruntled. Both games saw Penn State take a combined lead of 45-7 at halftime, indicating that the game plan from head coach James Franklin has been impeccable.
Notre Dame covered against Indiana in South Bend, 27-17, before winning in a delayed Sugar Bowl against Georgia, 23-10. The Irish opened as the underdog against Georgia but closed as a small favorite in a game that had heavy emotions following the terrorist attack on Bourbon Street.
Hard Rock Stadium will host one of the biggest penultimate games for two blue-blood programs. Notre Dame last won a national championship in 1988, preceded by Penn State in 1986.
Notre Dame enters as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under set at 45.5.
Let's dive into my Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for the 2025 Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Thursday, Jan. 9.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Penn State Nittany Lions Picks
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State Pick: Notre Dame ML -135
My Penn State vs. Notre Dame best bet is on the Fighting Irish to win the game outright, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Notre Dame vs Penn State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 +100 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -120 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
- Notre Dame vs Penn State Spread: Notre Dame -1 · Penn State +1
- Notre Dame vs Penn State Over/Under: 44.5
- Notre Dame vs Penn State Moneyline: Notre Dame ML -110 · Penn State ML -110
Notre Dame vs Penn State College Football Playoff Expert Betting Preview
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Will Love Play?
The availability of running back Jeremiyah Love will not be known until pregame warmups. The Notre Dame offense could be without its star running back who's battling a knee injury sustained in the season finale against USC that lingered into the opening round against Indiana.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock rushes the ball at a 57% clip with an even distribution of inside zone and gap-blocking concepts.
Once Love was injured in the Sugar Bowl, quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jadarian Price took over the game with first downs and explosives.
RILEY. LEONARD.
📺 ESPN #GoIrishpic.twitter.com/NfDHP6vqpf
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 3, 2025
The Notre Dame offense didn't miss a beat without Love, as Leonard created six missed tackles with a 32-yard explosive run as Denbrock leaned heavily on inside zone runs.
Price received all the carries in man-blocking situations, averaging 3.7 yards a carry but lacking the explosiveness of Love.
Our quarterfinals preview noted the rise of wide receiver Jordan Faison, a crucial weapon for Leonard in the passing game. The sophomore caught all four targets against Georgia while also shocking the Bulldogs defense with his first two carries of the season.
Defensively, coordinator Al Golden called another gem in the Sugar Bowl. The Irish finished with nine tackles for loss against Georgia.
Notre Dame finished the regular season as the top-ranked defense in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
Golden prefers one of the heaviest rates of man coverage in all of college football, sending blitz at a high 36% rate. The aggressiveness has cost Notre Dame in spots, specifically with cornerback Christian Gray. The sophomore has allowed three consecutive quarterback NFL grades over 100 against USC, Indiana and Georgia.
Gray has allowed 15-of-22 targets to be caught with a grand total of 279 yards in that time frame. If there's an area for the Penn State offense to look for an explosive, expect targets toward the Irish's right cornerback.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Explosives on Offense
There are many ways to describe offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. First and foremost, he's the offensive wizard who has elevated Penn State's program with explosive plays.
Franklin mentioned in his Orange Bowl press conference that he ultimately decides when the offense is aggressive or conservative, but there's no denying that pre-snap motion combined with an NFL arm from quarterback Drew Allar has destroyed opposing defenses.
The Warren presnap motion from Kotelnicki, the patience of Allar to finish the route.
Boise didn’t whiff here, they could create a contested catch@PennStateFball | #WeArepic.twitter.com/bebQHtCqaB
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) January 1, 2025
The Nittany Lions have gotten healthy at the running back position at the right time of the year. Nicholas Singleton continues to mull over his NFL Draft potential through the playoff, while Kaytron Allen had a stellar Fiesta Bowl.
Allen created nine missed tackles against Boise State after averaging just 2.3 per game the entire season.
Using a heavy amount of outside zone, the Nittany Lions have generated plenty of explosives to the right side of the offense line thanks to the elite grading of right tackle Nolan Rucci.
The biggest news may be the aggressive pass attack that was transparent in the Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon — a shootout that produced double the number of explosive drives compared to the national average.
Tight end Tyler Warren has been an issue for every defense in college football, but the emergence of wideout Omari Evans spells trouble for cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage. Evans has produced at least one 20-plus yard catch in four of the last five games for Penn State.
The largest concern for defensive coordinator Tom Allen is the status of star defensive end Abdul Carter. The future NFL pass-rusher suffered an injury that required heavy bandages in the shoulder area not visible to the media during Sunday practice.
Franklin reported that an availability report will not come on Carter because the College Football Playoff doesn't require so, but stated, "It's going to come down to how he feels… I don't think there's anything that is stopping him from playing."
Penn State's ability to harass Notre Dame in the backfield relies on Carter's shoulder, a status left unknown until kickoff.
Other notable playmakers for the Nittany Lions were banged up during the Fiesta Bowl, including edge Dani Dennis-Sutton, middle linebacker Kobe King and safety Jaylen Reed.
While all were available for media availability at practice on Sunday, this is a Penn State defense that's feeling the effects of a full playoff bracket.
Notre Dame vs Penn State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Penn State match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 17 | |
Penn State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 4 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 17 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 2 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 92 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 1 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (40) | 22.6 (17) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (41) | 58% (28) |
How To Make College Football Playoff Picks For My Notre Dame vs Penn State Predictions
Despite the potential loss of Love, the Notre Dame offense is set to test the Penn State defense.
Leonard will lead the inside zone and man-blocking schemes against a Nittany Lions defense that has middling FBS Success Rate numbers against those specific run concepts.
The bigger question is Penn State's ability to stop Leonard from creating explosive plays through inside zone. Allen's defense has never seen a designed run quarterback like Leonard based on the 2024 schedule that includes:
- West Virginia's Garrett Green: Outside zone for 20 yards on eight carries
- Ohio State's Will Howard: Outside zone for 34 yards on nine carries
- Washington's Demond Williams: Inside zone for 15 yards on three carries
Notre Dame will fight for every yard in standard downs with or without Love, while Leonard will take a middling FBS Success Rate against man coverage and Cover 1 from the Nittany Lions' secondary.
The edge comes in Notre Dame's elite numbers as a top-five offense in Finishing Drives, coming in as the 15th-best offense in red-zone rush touchdown rate.
The biggest edge in this game comes on the other side of the ball, when Golden will use the maximum amount of blitz to rattle Allar.
Kotelnicki has been fantastic in the scripted portion of the playoff, as Penn State has been one of the highest-scoring offenses in the second quarter all season.
The Irish could shine and take over the game when it comes to making adjustments for the second half.
Although Allar hasn't committed a single turnover-worthy play in a pressured pocket this season, there's an explanation that could generate anxiety for the Nittany Lions.
As pointed out in an excellent film breakdown from Landon Tengwall, Allar had severe issues identifying blitz and changing protection schemes. The Penn State offensive line would slide in the opposite direction of a Boise State axe blitz, a simple nose tackle stick and linebacker loop.
Allar thrived when Boise State sent four rushers, but once five or more blitz defenders came, the offensive line deteriorated. This has been a consistent issue for left guard Olaivavega Ioane all season, producing the lowest pass-blocking grade in the Power Four against the blitz packages from Ohio State, Minnesota and Boise State.
Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.
The future NFL quarterback has struggled with his release all season, averaging 2.9 seconds per throw. Golden is sure to use outside linebacker Junior Tuihalamaka in blitz against Ioane, as Boise State threw down the blueprint of how many defenders should rush the quarterback.
Notre Dame sends five or more defenders on blitz 34% of attempts with a sky-high 61% Success Rate in creating pressure.
Notre Dame's defense has been excellent against outside zone teams and horrific against inside zone. Considering the Nittany Lions run a heavy amount of outside zone for Allen and Singleton, the Irish have the advantage defensively both on the ground and through the air.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings for the semifinals make Notre Dame a 2.5-point favorite, allowing investors to purchase a cheap -135 moneyline where available in the market or a -2 on the Irish.
There will be a chance for props in this game when it comes to the Penn State offense.
Gray will be targeted on the Irish defense, as Allar will consistently look to take advantage with a right-side wideout. That position belongs to Harrison Wallace III, who averages 5.3 catches per game and a high 2.1 yards per route run.
Based on his receptions per game and yards per catch, any total yardage below 51 is worth an investment on the over.
Pick: Notre Dame ML -135 OR -2 · Harrison Wallace Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 51.5)
Penn State vs Notre Dame Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, Jan. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Notre Dame takes on Penn State in the Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Thursday, Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Penn State vs Notre Dame Betting Trends
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