Notre Dame vs Syracuse Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
At this point in the season, there are very few nonconference matchups of note, as most teams are firmly entrenched in conference play.
Notre Dame is obviously the outlier given its independence, and as a result, we've got an intriguing Halloween weekend battle between the Fighting Irish and the Orange.
Syracuse had been one of the surprise stories of this college football season with a hot start, but the unbeaten run finally came to an end last week against Clemson.
Cuse took a lead all the way into the fourth quarter in that matchup but couldn't do enough offensively to put the game away.
It's been an up-and-down year thus far in South Bend, as Notre Dame has some nice wins over North Carolina and BYU, and also played Ohio State tougher than any other team has.
The flip side to that is the Irish have lost two home games as a 14-plus point favorite to both Marshall and Stanford. A bit of inconsistency can be expected with first-year head coach Marcus Freeman adjusting to his new role, so it will be interesting to see how Year 1 finishes.
Syracuse currently sits as a three-point favorite in this one. Let's dive into where the betting value lies.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After the aforementioned home loss to Stanford, Notre Dame got back on track last week with a 44-21 victory over UNLV. It's hard to take a whole lot away from that game given where UNLV is at as a program, so this week should be a good litmus test for the Irish.
ND has actually been pretty solid away from South Bend thus far in the season. The Irish dominated North Carolina in Chapel Hill, and in their only other true road game to this point, the Irish held a second-half lead in Columbus.
It should be a sold-out JMA Wireless Dome (I'll never not think Carrier Dome) on Saturday, but I don't anticipate the Irish being impacted much by a large crowd given what we have seen thus far.
The Irish offense has been at its best this season when it has stayed on schedule, relying on a strong offensive line and a powerful running game.
Drew Pyne isn't the type of quarterback who can scramble his way out of third-and-long situations, so it's critical for ND to stick to that formula in this one.
There's reason to believe it can, given the Irish will be going up against a Syracuse rush defense that has been pretty vulnerable. The Orange gave up nearly 300 rushing yards to Clemson last week and check in at 84th nationally in Defensive Rush Success.
On the other side of the ball, the Notre Dame defense has been pretty good overall, but for whatever reason, this group is allergic to forcing turnovers. The Irish have just three takeaways on the season, a number that ranks right at the bottom in the entire country.
There are some pros on the defensive line, most notably Isaiah Foskey, so you'd think that the law of averages would even out a bit the rest of the year.
If there's a weakness to this defense, it's in the linebacker room, and that group will be tested by a Syracuse rushing attack that has been pretty dynamic all year.
Expect Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden to dial up some pressure. Getting home will be critical to disrupting the Orange offense.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse was really close to sitting inside the top 10 in the country this week and likely hosting College GameDay on Saturday. It wasn't meant to be for the Orange, as a costly late hit penalty and some untimely three-and-outs ultimately did them in against Clemson.
The question now becomes, can Dino Babers' group turn the page quickly and be ready to go for an early kick against the Irish?
I think it's a tough ask, but one thing we do know is that Babers will ensure that star running back Sean Tucker gets more touches this week. Just watch his Monday press conference where Babers admitted that it was unacceptable for Tucker to only carry the ball five times in such a critical game.
Establishing the run will be key for the Orange, as they're not a team that throws the ball down the field all that often.
Garrett Shrader has been much improved this season, but there are still times when he holds onto the ball for far too long and gets himself into trouble.
Defensively, Cuse has a big challenge on its hands against a very physical Notre Dame running attack. If the Orange start to get pushed around up front, ND will be able to turn to the play-action game, where All-American tight end Michael Mayer has feasted.
The Orange need to limit the damage on the ground and force an unproven Pyne to beat them. As always, forcing a turnover or two would go a long way in helping Cuse's chances in this one.
Notre Dame vs Syracuse Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Syracuse match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs Syracuse Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 6 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 18 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 89 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Syracuse Offense vs Notre Dame Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 16 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 38 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 6 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 77 | 5 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 16 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (105) | 28.5 (109) |
| Rush Rate | 59.3% (24) | 58.7% (30) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Notre Dame vs Syracuse Betting Pick
I think this is a great situational spot for Notre Dame, and I also like how the Irish match up with Syracuse on both sides of the ball. The Orange have been very fortunate for most of the year, and after losing last week to Clemson, I think we could see things start to unwind a bit for Cuse.
Notre Dame is the better team in the trenches, so look for Freeman to lean on the Irish's physicality and trust his hogs up front.
As long as Pyne takes care of the ball in this one, I expect ND to win outright. I will gladly back the Irish getting a couple of points in a game where I believe the wrong team is favored.
Pick: Notre Dame +3 |
