Welcome to our expert debate for the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship and Notre Dame vs. Ohio State odds, picks and college football predictions for which team will cover the spread.
Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite on the spread and a -375 favorite on the moneyline with a 45.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts have previewed the biggest marquee matchups and gone back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Let's learn how to bet Notre Dame vs. Ohio State on Monday, Jan. 20.
Notre Dame vs Ohio State Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Why Ohio State Can Cover the Spread
Whether it's been pissed off from the Michigan game or just finally remembered its superior talent level, Ohio State has been in killer mode for the last month.
The Buckeyes have dog-walked a trio of top-10 opponents during this playoff, outscoring them 112-52 and covering all three spreads by more than a touchdown. The offense is firing on all cylinders, and Chip Kelly seems to have finally realized the Buckeyes have better weapons than anybody in the country.
On the season as a whole, Ohio State ranks third in the country averaging 6.9 yards per play. The offense had always been terrific. But it's found another gear, averaging 7.5 yards per play over the last three games.
Will Howard was brought in to be a veteran presence who can spread the ball around to the talented weapons, and that's exactly what he has done. Howard is completing 72.6% of his passes with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Star freshman Jeremiah Smith headlines the receiver room that's loaded with talent. Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate all average at least 50 yards per game and over 12.5 yards per reception.
Notre Dame has been terrific against the pass this season, but look at the wide receivers they have faced. How many above-average receiver rooms have they faced? Maybe two? Louisville put up 264 yards and three touchdowns through the air on the Irish, and USC torched it for 360 yards and three touchdowns with a backup quarterback. That's it.
While they're clearly a very good unit, I don’t think this secondary is as impenetrable as they're being made out to be. Against the run, we know the Irish have issues, and that should be a problem against two of the best running backs in the nation.
The Fighting Irish rank 90th in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed and now have to face the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Both backs average over 5.2 yards per carry on the year and have at least 10 touchdowns each. Ohio State has scored eight rushing touchdowns in three playoff games.
Ohio State has averaged 35.8 points per game this season and has scored at least 28 points in 12 of its 15 games. Meanwhile, this defense has allowed more than 17 points just twice all season, and it was against Oregon both times.
I expect those tendencies to hold true in this game as Notre Dame will struggle to eclipse 17 points against this dominant Buckeyes defense, while the offense is just too talented to hold under 28 points.
Why Notre Dame Can Cover the Spread
I know the world is rushing to back Ohio State. The Buckeyes have looked so dominant. They’ve turned a corner since the Michigan loss. They’re angry and won’t let an underwhelming Notre Dame squad get in front of the freight train.
I’m here to say slow your roll. Eight points is plenty to cover in a National Championship game.
There are plenty of avenues to a Notre Dame cover.
For starters, I’m hesitant about the Bucks.
Everyone thinks they’re an uncoverable offense. But if it weren’t for the 75-yard screen pass before the half and the miracle 90-yard fumble return at the end of the fourth, they would’ve finished the semifinal with 14 points. They scored on the opening drive and barely moved the rock for the rest of the game.
Texas is an elite defense, leading the nation in adjusted EPA per Play allowed. But Notre Dame ranks second. The Irish rank first nationally in Pass Success Rate and EPA per Dropback allowed.
The ‘Horns gave Marcus Freeman the blueprint for stopping the Buckeyes. Texas rolled its coverage over freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith on every dropback, and he finished with one catch for three yards on three targets. Ohio State never wholly adjusted.
The Irish secondary is nasty, ranking second nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades. They can absolutely do the same thing.
On the other side of the rock, Notre Dame boasts an explosive dual-threat rushing attack, and you can push Ohio State around at the point of attack, as the Buckeyes’ defensive line ranks just 40th nationally in Line Yards.
Playing stellar defense and rushing the rock is a fantastic way to cover as an eight-point ‘dog. The Irish can control time of possession, limit possessions, and keep the game close for 40 minutes.
Furthermore, I don’t expect either team to push the pace here. Ohio State and Notre Dame rank in the bottom 25 nationally in seconds per play. Sure, the Buckeyes can be explosive, but they managed just one explosive passing play against Texas aside from the disaster screen, so they might have to dink-and-dunk their way down the field.
I think points will be at a premium on Monday.
With limited possessions, Notre Dame’s coaching mismatch might be the difference-maker.
Marcus Freeman has been brilliant, especially during this playoff run. He’s been aggressive at all the right times. There’s a reason the Irish lead the nation in Middle 8 and went 12-3 ATS this year.
Sit back and ask yourself who you trust more in the season's most important game: Coach Freeman or Ryan “Can’t Beat Michigan” Day?
I’ll take Freeman, the Irish and the points.
Why Buckeyes Are Better Bet
Ianniello: I am not as bullish as Tanner on Notre Dame being able to move the ball on Ohio State. For my money, Ohio State has the best defense in the country. And let’s look at what Notre Dame has done in its last two games against very strong defenses.
The Irish managed just 244 total yards against Georgia, the fewest total yards ever in a playoff victory. They needed a strip sack and kick return touchdown to get past the Bulldogs' backup quarterback.
Against Penn State, they totaled 384 yards on offense. However, 54 of those yards came on a broken play touchdown where the Penn State corner fell down, and 44 yards came from backup quarterback Steve Angeli coming off the bench before the half and throwing it around during a two-minute drill that Penn State was not ready for.
Running their normal offense with Leonard under center, they managed 286 total yards of offense.
I expect the Buckeyes defense to cause a lot of issues for Leonard because most teams have two options when it comes to defending Leonard: sit back and try and take away his passing lanes or send the blitz to pressure on him.
The problem is, Leonard has been terrific when kept clean and he has time to find his receivers. On the flip side, when you blitz Leonard, you leave yourself vulnerable to him taking off and using his legs.
That's where Ohio State has an advantage. It's not a blitz-heavy team. It sends extra rushers just 32.9% of the time, ranking 86th in the country in blitz rate. However, the Buckeyes' four-man rush is so dominant with Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau that they still rank third in the nation with a 40.9% pressure rate.
That means Leonard will be under pressure, where he ranks 125th in the FBS in PFF’s passing grade, while still having to deal with seven defenders back in coverage.
This is going to be a very long day for Leonard and the Irish. They're not going to be able to throw the ball on this Buckeyes defense.
Ohio State is a team that is versatile enough to play from behind and throw the ball up to their talented wideouts or milk a lead with two running backs that will be playing on Sundays next year.
If Notre Dame gets down in this one and needs to rely on Leonard’s arm, it's in big trouble, and this will get out of hand.
Why Fighting Irish Are Better Bet
McGrath: I hate to admit it, but I don’t love how Notre Dame’s offense matches up with Ohio State’s defense, especially in the passing game.
But is the Ohio State offense too talented to hold under 28 points? Texas held it to 21 offensive points, which should’ve been 14. Michigan held it to 10 points. Penn State held it to 20.
The Irish are on par with all three of those defenses.
Yes, Ohio State obliterated Oregon and Tennessee’s defense. But I think the Buckeyes are losing the motivational edge — they can no longer play the "Everyone Is Against Us" card, so to speak.
Everyone thought the Buckeyes would roll Texas, and the offense reverted to the awkward levels of effectiveness that led to uninspired performances several times this year.
You think they’re still pissed off from the Michigan game, but they didn’t play like it last week.
The Bucks are now laying nearly double digits in the National Championship game. They’re supposed to roll! And that makes me worried about where they’re at mentally.
Meanwhile, the Irish can play loose. Nobody expected them to make it here, and nobody thinks they can win. I expect Freeman to lean into that in the locker room and on the field, where he will be as aggressive and sharp as ever.
I don’t think Ohio State is in killer mode, and I think the Buckeyes might turtle under the National Championship pressure. I don’t think the Buckeyes will score 28 points in a down-tempo, rush-heavy game against the nation’s best pass defense.
And that will make it nearly impossible to cover in the National Championship game.
Why Buckeyes Will Cover
Ianniello: Let’s just say hypothetically Tanner is right and that Ohio State can’t eclipse 28 points (I think it will). I don’t think it necessarily needs to because I’m not sure Notre Dame can get over 17 points.
The Fighting Irish team total sits at 17.5, and I would take that under too. This Buckeyes defense has held teams under 17.5 in 13 out of 15 games, and Notre Dame doesn't have the weapons or upside to be one of the outliers.
Ohio State ranks first in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed on defense. It's loaded from top to bottom. Notre Dame’s offense ranked outside of the top 30 in Success Rate.
The only way the Fighting Irish have a chance of keeping this close is if they can establish the run. The Buckeyes have allowed just 2.7 yards per play on the ground this season, the second-best mark in the country. They have given up just 89.9 rushing yards per game this season, and Michigan is the only team to eclipse 155 rushing yards — and it took 42 carries.
Ohio State has just faced Tennessee, Oregon and Texas, three terrific rushing units with elite offensive lines. It allowed an average of 62.3 rushing yards and 1.9 yards per carry.
Even if the Fighting Irish manage to find some success and move the ball, the Buckeyes rank first in the country in red-zone defense and at preventing Finishing Drives.
Love is still banged up, and these Ohio State linebackers are fast enough to keep Leonard in check.
With the injuries to Notre Dame’s offensive line, the Buckeyes edge rushers will be able to feast in this game, allowing Ohio State to keep a spy on Leonard at all times.
This is the best defense in the country, and it's playing its best football right now. I don’t see how Notre Dame scores here.
Why Fighting Irish Will Cover
McGrath: Even if the Irish struggle to move the ball, I don’t think the Buckeyes have the horses to build any margin. They won’t be able to “milk a lead” because they’ll have a tough time generating efficient offense on limited possessions for 60 minutes.
If I were Mike, I’d be especially worried about Ohio State making crucial mistakes before a lead is built.
Yeah, Riley hasn’t been excellent under pressure this season. But he rarely makes mistakes, while Howard has committed 15 Turnover-Worthy Plays this season, including eight in pressured pockets and 11 when not blitzed.
If Freeman can scheme pressure, his ball-hawking secondary can take advantage. The Irish posted a +17 turnover margin this season, ranking in the top 30 nationally in sack rate (8%) and the top five in interceptions (19).
If Howard makes mistakes while Leonard plays clean football, it’ll be nearly impossible for Ohio State to stretch the lead past the spread.
Notre Dame vs Ohio State Picks and Predictions
Ohio State -8.5
Ianniello: Ohio State is playing its best football of the season right now, and Notre Dame presents a good matchup.
On offense, the Buckeyes have more talent than anybody, and Notre Dame plays as much man-to-man defense as any team in the nation. Good luck guarding these receivers and backs with man coverage.
When Notre Dame has the ball, it's a one-dimensional offense that wants to run the ball down your throat. While it's very good at doing that with a dynamic quarterback-running back duo, it's now facing the best run defense in the country.
And I’m sorry, but I want to circle back to Tanner’s early point about the coaching mismatchm which was simply a ridiculous statement. Marcus Freeman has a coaching advantage over Ryan Day? On what planet?
Look, I don't like Day as a person at all and hate saying nice things about him. But when these two teams met last year, Freeman literally cost them the game by only having 10 guys on the field for two plays in a goal-line stand.
Day is 69-10 in his career as the Ohio State head coach. You want to call him Ryan “Can’t Beat Michigan” Day? That's fine. Luckily, he's not playing Michigan on Monday. And he is 68-6 against in his career all other opponents, including Notre Dame.
I will certainly take Day over Marcus “Can’t Beat Northern Illinois” Freeman.
Notre Dame +8.5
McGrath: I don’t trust Ryan Day in the National Championship.
I don’t trust Will Howard and the Buckeyes passing attack to consistently beat Notre Dame’s elite secondary, especially after that uninspiring performance against Texas.
I don’t trust the Buckeyes can pull out a comfortable double-digit win in a down-tempo, rush-heavy game script, especially if their front seven lets Leonard and company get loose.
And I think the Buckeyes will play scared on Monday, and Freeman will take full advantage.
They might not win, but the Irish can keep this one close.
