We're treated to two more college football games this week, with Penn State taking on Notre Dame in Miami on Thursday night in what's projected to be the tightest game of the College Football Playoff so far — at least according to the betting market.
Below we've compiled 5 to use on PrizePicks and Underdog for ND vs. PSU from Rotogrinders — both the NCAAF pick'em analysis page and projections page. You can get all the plays with a Rotogrinders subscription.
College Football PrizePicks & Underdog Plays
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top pick'em plays from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Jaden Greathouse
More than 11.5 receiving yards
From Dan Gaspar at Rotogrinders: "The production hasn't followed, but Greathouse has seen an increase in route participation throughout the first two playoff games, as Notre Dame has seemingly tightened their WR rotation. I have Greathouse projected for just north of 20 yards."
ND hasn't had to throw much at all in the second half of their first two CFP games, but Greathouse has a good chance to get there if this game is at all close.
Pick: Jaden Greathouse More than 11.5 receiving yards
Tyler Warren
Less than 15.5 fantasy points
Hold your nose! Nothing like fading perhaps the highest-profile offensive player in the game.
Our models give this a 10% edge, projecting Warren to have less than 15.5 fantasy points.
Warren has been a target hog for Penn State all year, leading the Nittany Lions in receptions and receiving yards. But our projections think this is too lofty a number against Notre Dame's stout defense. He's been less involved as a redzone running back in the last few games as well, with just three total carries and no rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Pick: Tyler Warren Less than 15.5 fantasy points
Beaux Collins
More than 15.5 receiving yards
Collins came in under this number against Georgia but did catch a touchdown for his lone reception, a 13-yard score. With the game script in ND's favor for the entire second half, they just didn't need to throw much to get him the second catch he needed (though he did see a target about 40 yards down the field in the fourth quarter).
Our projections think this number is too low — he's been over this number in 9 of 14 games.
Pick: Beaux Collins More than 15.5 receiving yards
Omari Evans
More than 22.5 receiving yards
Evans is Penn State's true deep threat, with a ridiculous 21.3 average depth of target. That's third-highest in the entire country among qualified wide receivers.
He's put up some duds, including a four-game stretch in the middle of the season where he caught one pass for two yards on 56 routes. But in three of his last five games, he's gone for 49+ yards. It's boom or bust for Evans.
Perhaps a demon (more than his listed total) at either 39.5 or 49.5 on PrizePicks makes sense considering his upside. There are no goblins (less than his listed total) for Evans as of Wednesday night.
Pick: Omari Evans More than 22.5 receiving yards
Riley Leonard
More than 17.5 fantasy points
Penn State has stopped the run well all year, including the last two games against Boise State's Ashton Jeanty and SMU's Brashard Smith, an excellent back in his own right.
You might expect Penn State to do everything it can to limit ND's 1-2 punch at running back, putting the game in the hands of Leonard, who will need some passing volume to move the ball if PSU does sell out to stop the run. And you figure Leonard's rushing floor (and touchdown upside) will give him a safety net, as well.
