Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan Odds
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
Two teams from separate divisions in Ohio and Eastern Michigan hope to inch closer to the leaders in an effort to secure a MAC Championship berth.
Eastern Michigan is already bowl eligible, but six-win teams from the Mid-American have been left out in the past when too many teams qualify for the postseason.
Head coach Chris Creighton has been overachieving in Ypsilanti since his arrival in 2014. The Eagles consistently rank near the bottom of the conference in recruiting but have made three bowls in the past five seasons.
Ohio underwent a sudden head coaching change during the summer when Frank Solich retired for medical reasons. Tim Albin moved from offensive coordinator to head coach after working under Solich from as far back as 2000 as a graduate assistant.
Nothing has changed on the offensive side of the ball except the quarterback under center.
Solich flipped between 11 and 12 personnel with a heavy tendency to run the ball in two-tight end sets with quarterback Nathan Rourke. The transition in 2021 for Albin has included the same playbook, but with sophomore Kurtis Rourke and UNLV transfer Armani Rogers.
Ohio cannot make a bowl with seven losses, but a cover in four of the past five games shows that the team is still fighting for Albin.
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Offense
The Bobcats continue to be a run-first team with 58% of snaps calling rush with a Success Rate 10% above the national average on running plays. Ohio ranks 22nd in Line Yards, a distinct advantage against an Eastern Michigan defense that is bottom-five in the nation in the metric.
Senior running back De'Montre Tuggle and Rourke have powered the rushing attack, but it was the passing attack that led to an upset victory of Miami (Ohio) in Week 10.
Ohio goes for it on 4th & 9. Isiah Cox runs a great route & Kurtis Rourke finds him for another Ohio TD. This is a shocking result. The Bobcats have been great tonight.
MIAMI OH 0
OHIO 28— CFB Blitz (@BlitzCfb) November 3, 2021
Rourke finished with 288 yards and three touchdowns on the evening, bucking the season rank of 115th in Passing Success Rate.
The Eastern Michigan defense ranks near dead last in Defensive Success Rate against the pass and rush, giving Albin plenty of options for play-calling against the Eagles.
On the season, Eastern Michigan's opponents are 13% above the national average in Success Rate on standard downs. Ohio will look to extend drives and control time of possession with a tempo rank of 112th.
Ohio Defense
The Ohio defense has many deficiencies as the Bobcats rank near dead last in tackling and Havoc. With one of the lowest ranks in tackles for loss and pass rush, Ohio does not play behind the line of scrimmage against opposing offenses.
Eastern Michigan may have similar results to Miami (OH) when it comes to the Ohio defense, as the RedHawks had 11 passes of 15 yards or more in defeat last week. The Bobcats have been one of the worst defensive units in the nation when getting opponents off schedule, ranking 118th in passing downs Success Rate.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan Offense
The transfer of quarterback Ben Bryant from Cincinnati has changed the offensive play-calling for Creighton. With Preston Hutchinson under center in 2020, Eastern Michigan called pass on 56% of downs out of the heavily-used 11 personnel.
That scheme still exists this season, but Bryant is passing on 67% of downs in 11 personnel with a high level of success. The Eagles are 27th in Offensive Passing Success Rate, as Bryant utilizes running back Samson Evans and wide receiver Hassan Beydoun to spread the field.
What a catch by Hassan Beydoun! Ben Bryant drops it right on the money & Beydoun hauls it in with one hand. What a fun game in Toledo.
EASTERN MICHIGAN 31
TOLEDO 28— CFB Blitz (@BlitzCfb) November 3, 2021
Eastern Michigan Defense
While the offense has scored 107 combined points against Toledo and Bowling Green over the past two games, the defense has given up 73 in consecutive wins.
The Eagles are 114th in Defensive Havoc and outside the top 100 in coverage rankings via PFF. Creighton's approach with Bryant has been to outscore opponents, especially when there is no pass rush.
Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Eastern Michigan match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Eastern Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 16 | |
| Big Play | 78 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 69 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Eastern Michigan Offense vs. Ohio Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 125 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 113 | |
| Big Play | 63 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 102 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 42 |
| Coverage | 50 | 100 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 20 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 123 | 25 |
| Plays per Minute | 111 | 71 |
| Rush Rate | 57.8% (45) | 52.% (85) |
Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan Betting Pick
Among the games on the Eastern Michigan schedule that stand out, a 13-12 victory over Miami (OH) bucks the scoring trend for the Eagles.
The one element in that game that grounded the Bryant passing attack was 17 quarterback pressures from the RedHawks. That will not be the case in this game, as the Ohio defense has ranks outside the top 100 in pass rush with 14 total sacks on the season.
Ohio will have the advantage on the ground, but middling numbers in time of possession and plays per minute suggest Ohio may elect to go tempo with a scoring deficit. The big difference in this game is the outcome of scoring attempts.
Both offenses have the clear advantage when drives go past the 40-yard line, but Eastern Michigan is cashing in at a much higher rate. The Bobcats have scored a touchdown in just 13-of-27 trips in the red zone, while the Eagles have scored a touchdown in 29-of-35 red zone attempts. The clear advantage is to Eastern Michigan against an Ohio defense that ranks 108th in Finishing Drives.
Mother Nature may have a say in the start of this game, as showers in the late afternoon should tamper off after kick. Ypsilanti is famous for the gray FieldTurf at "The Factory," as field conditions should not have an impact on the pace of play in comparison to a natural grass surface.
The Action Network projection makes the side Eastern Michigan -8 with a total projection of 59. As with any MACtion game, spreads and totals are often manipulated as limits are increased running up to kickoff.
Any number south of a touchdown deserves a look for Eastern Michigan with heavy advantages in scoring opportunities and special teams.
As for the total, the Eagles are one of the best in the nation at making red-zone attempts turn into touchdowns instead of field goals, which could be important in getting through the key number of 62.
