The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) host the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0) in a Big Ten battle with plenty of College Football Playoff implications on Saturday.
For Ohio State, this is an opportunity to pick up another big win and impress the College Football Playoff committee. The Buckeyes already beat Penn State, 20-13, in a top-5 battle earlier in the season, but they fell at Oregon, 32-31, in their first real test in October.
On the Indiana side of things, this marks the Hoosiers' first real challenge. Indiana has won 9 of its 10 games by double digits with the only outlier being a 20-15 victory over Michigan 2 weeks ago. Now, head coach Curt Cignetti and Co. have to head to Columbus and escape with a win if it wants to keep its unblemished dreams alive.
Ohio State enters this game as a -11 favorite with the over/under set at 52.5.
Let's dive into our staff's Ohio State vs. Indiana picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Ohio State vs. Indiana Picks, Predictions
The Big Ten, College Football Playoff and history are all at stake on Saturday of college football Week 13
College GameDay will be in Columbus when 9-1 Ohio State hosts undefeated Indiana in a high-profile showdown before Thanksgiving.
The Buckeyes have owned the Hoosiers, ripping off an astounding 28-game win streak in the series entering Saturday. But this time, Ohio State and Indiana both enter this game in the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings.
The latest CFP rankings slotted a hypothetical No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 BYU. In a separate region, No. 7 Indiana would draw No. 10 Ole Miss.
Action Network Collin Wilson tabs the Buckeyes as the best team in his Action Network Betting Power Ratings (97). Indiana, meanwhile, is No. 13 (86.5).
So, where does the betting value lie here? We polled eight members of our college football staff, and they dished out their bets for Saturday's spread and over/under while also coming through with a team total.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Indiana +11
Only one other Big Ten team that was 10-0 over the last 30 years has been a double-digit underdog: 2002 Ohio State vs. Miami.
And then there’s Indiana.
The betting line for this game is fascinating, and it will likely draw plenty of opinions. Indiana’s dominating the headlines, but the odds favor Ohio State to not only make it 29 in a row, but potentially in blowout fashion.
The Buckeyes are listed as double-digit favorites against the spread, though the number’s trickling down. Once marked 13.5-point chalk, the Buckeyes are down to -10 with gameday around the corner.
Indiana’s surge has naturally come as a surprise to the public. The Hoosiers are 10-0 overall, with eight wins against the spread.
Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, meanwhile, are just 5-5 ATS. Following back-to-back nailbiters against Nebraska and Penn State, Ohio State has ripped off consecutive blowouts.
Action Network's public betting trackers show the Hoosiers collecting 59% of the tickets. The money, however, is about right down the middle.
Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams found that since 2014, 14 teams ranked in the top five have been double-digit underdogs. All 14 underdogs have lost straight up and are 5-9 against the spread.
But if there’s anyone who’s ready for the challenge, it’s Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti.
Over/Under
Over 52.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
The over/under for Saturday’s Big Ten clash is lined anywhere between 52.5 and 53.5.
Indiana was one of the best over teams out the gates, cashing six of its first seven. Overall, the Hoosiers are 7-3 to the over this season and haven’t closed with a total higher than 54.5 all season. The average over/under for Indiana games all season is about 49.5.
The big reason for Indiana’s success in cashing overs is an offense that leads the nation in Passing Success Rate. A solid run game has set up a potent aerial attack in Bloomington, and when the Hoosiers get close, they usually strike gold. In fact, Cignetti’s club ranks second nationally in Finishing Drives.
It’ll be a tough test against a Buckeyes defense that paces in the country in both Finishing Drives allowed and Quality Drives allowed.
Ohio State’s a better under team than over this season, going under the total in six of its 10 games. The Buckeyes have rattled off four straight unders thanks to a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 17 points since losing to Oregon on Oct. 12.
The Buckeyes have been a whole different bet out of conference than in Big Ten play. After starting the season cashing three straight overs against Group of Five foes, Ohio State has gone 6-1 to the under.
Really, the only challenger offensively has been Oregon, which also handed Ohio State its only loss of the season.
Our staff expects a lower-scoring game here, as Action Network's PRO Projections submitted a total closer to 50 for Week 13.
More Ways to Bet Ohio State vs. Indiana
Ohio State Team Total Under 31.5 (Play to 31)
Indiana’s offense has gotten plenty of buzz all season for its efficiency and production, and rightfully so.
Its defense, however, continues to be vastly underrated. This is a unit that has stifled opposing offenses all year, and it was the difference-maker in its most recent outing against Michigan.
Led by Mikail Kamara, the defensive line is one of the most physical fronts in all of the Big Ten.
So much of what Ohio State wants to do offensively is predicated around the running game, and I don’t know if the Buckeyes will find much success on the ground against the Hoosiers.
The OSU offensive line was already thin after some injuries, but to make matters worse, starting center Seth McLaughlin injured his Achilles in practice this week and is out for the year.
Lastly, I don’t expect either offense to move particularly quickly in this one, which will limit the number of possessions.
Difficulty sustaining drives and a limited number of chances to score will make it difficult for Ohio State to break into the 20s in this game, let alone into the 30s.
Give me the Buckeyes' team total under.
Ohio State vs. Indiana Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
- Ohio State vs. Indiana Spread: Ohio State -11 · Indiana +11
- Ohio State vs. Indiana Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Ohio State vs. Indiana Moneyline: Ohio State -450 · Indiana +340
