The Ohio State Buckeyes will go on the road this weekend to take on the Michigan State Spartans. This game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on Peacock from Spartan Stadium.
The Buckeyes are 23.5-point favorites on the road over a Michigan State team that may be turning things around faster than expected.
This game has an over/under of 48.5 points in a game that is expected to be lower scoring than most Ohio State games.
Let’s take a look at my Ohio State vs Michigan State prediction and my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Odds, Prediction
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -112 | 48 -108o / -112u | -2800 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -108 | 48 -108o / -112u | +1300 |
- Ohio State vs Michigan State spread: Ohio State -23.5
- Ohio State vs Michigan State over/under: 48 points
- Ohio State vs Michigan State moneyline: Ohio State -2400
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State pick: Ohio State -23.5
My Ohio State-Michigan State best bet is on Buckeyes to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Michigan State Betting Preview
The Buckeyes have thoroughly dominated every opponent they have played this season, but they have only played three Group of 5 teams, so it’s hard to say how this will translate to the rest of their schedule. In those three games against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall, the Buckeyes have had a postgame-adjusted margin of over 40 points in every game.
Ohio State ranks eighth in Success Rate and ninth in Finishing Drives on offense. They also rank 10th in Pass Success Rate and 16th in Pass PPA this year. Ohio State also is 10th in Rush Success Rate and fourth in Rush PPA.
Will Howard has only had to attempt 54 passes this season, but he has 461 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions this year while averaging 0.39 EPA per dropback. Quinshon Judkins has been leading the two-headed rushing attack with 230 yards on just 22 carries with three touchdowns.
Ohio State's defense ranks ninth in Success Rate, 10th in Explosiveness, first in Finishing Drives, and 15th in Havoc rate. They are 15th in pass Success Rate allowed and fourth in Pass PPA allowed, while ranking 18th in Rush Success Rate allowed and eighth in Rush PPA allowed.
It’s hard to put too much stock in these numbers to this point in the season with the weak schedule the Buckeyes have faced, but they have also not shown any weakness yet, so I have no reason to doubt them as of right now.
Jonathan Smith’s squad is 3-1 to start the season in his first year on campus after finishing 4-8 a season ago. The offense started the season by struggling with FAU before they pulled out a close win against Maryland and a blowout win over an FCS team. The Spartans went on the road to Boston College and lost by a score of 23-19 last weekend in the Red Bandana Game.
Michigan State ranks 84th in offensive Success Rate and 107th in Finishing Drives this season. They have improved over the last few weeks but are still going through growing pains. The Spartans rank 85th in Pass Success Rate and 77th in Rush Success Rate this season.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has four touchdowns to seven interceptions and is averaging -0.04 EPA per dropback this season. They rank 53rd in Pass Explosiveness and 49th in Pass PPA, but I don’t know if I trust the sophomore against a Jim Knowles defense.
The Spartans have been very good defensively. Last year, they ranked 44th in SP+ defensive ratings and returned 10 starters on that side of the ball. That has helped them to rank 20th in Success Rate allowed and eighth in defensive Finishing Drives. They also rank 12th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 10th in Rush PPA allowed, but just 47th and 45th in those two categories against the pass.
These are good stats, but Michigan State has not yet faced an offense that ranks in the top 60 in SP+. Ohio State will be a different level of test and it remains to be seen how this defense will do against a better offense.
Ohio State vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Michigan State match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 10 |  |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 26 | |
Michigan State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 7 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 12 | 7 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (47) | 28.6 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (63) | 52% (65) |
Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction
I believe this Michigan State team is moving in the right direction, but I don’t think that they are quite there yet. They have looked impressive against the opponents they have faced to this point, but I don’t think they will have a chance at hanging with Ohio State.
I trust the talent on Ohio State’s roster and their coaching staff to have this team ready to play. The Buckeyes are an extremely talented team and I think this spread is a touch too low with this difference between teams, even when accounting for home field advantage.
I like taking Ohio State at -23.5 to pick up the road win in their first Big Ten game of the season and cover while doing so. Chiles’ turnover issues will likely appear against this Buckeye defense and the dynamic rushing attack for Ohio State will help them extend their lead as the game rolls on.
SP+ has Ohio State by 29 and I would take this myself up to 24 points in favor of the Buckeyes.
Pick: Ohio State -23.5 (Play to -24)
How to Watch Ohio State vs Michigan State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Ohio State vs Michigan State Betting Trends
- Michigan State has landed 75% of the bets but generated 80% of the money against the spread.
- The over has taken 85% of the bets but just 39% of the cash.
Ohio State vs Michigan State Weather
