Ohio State vs Northwestern Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
Oh, look. Ohio State's playing, and the spread's so large that the Buckeyes' moneyline price starts to blur due to the amount of zeroes attached.
That in itself is a statement of pure dominance — especially considering the Buckeyes are playing on the road, in conference, against a program that had them on the ropes less than two years ago in the Big Ten title game.
Northwestern is catching nearly 40 points.
But can Pat Fitzgerald, formerly renowned as one of the best underdog head coaches in college football, rally the troops and pull off the biggest upset of the year?!
(Northwestern fans everywhere slowly start to rise and begin chanting "Wildcats! Wildcats!" in unison.)
In a word, no. The Wildcats are going to get absolutely eviscerated like a fist through parchment paper.
There are two bets to consider in this game — and neither is on the spread.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State leading the country in points per game is pretty unfair.
C.J. Stroud is among the Heisman favorites, his receiving corps is littered with talent and the running game has been just as good behind a line getting a top-five push nationally.
Ohio State failed to cover last weekend against Penn State as 15.5-point chalk, the first time it failed to win against the spread since Week 2.
Again, it's Week 10.
And despite some fourth-quarter magic, Ryan Day's unit still managed to post 44 points and 7.3 yards per play on the road against the Nittany Lions — who will go down as the second-best team the Buckeyes draw all year.
The Buckeyes have put on such a clinic in 2022 that even their bad games would be, by 95% of other teams' standards, a solid outing.
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern beat Nebraska in the opener as a double-digit underdog, but that win is looking uglier by the week.
Since then, it's been a series of lowlights.
The Wildcats suffered three straight losses as favorites of -7.5 or more to Duke, Miami (OH) and Southern Illinois.
They've also come up empty in the patented big-'dog role that propped Fitzgerald up in years past, getting boat-raced by the NIGHTMARE-INDUCING offenses of Iowa and Wisconsin by a combined score of 75-20.
Nobody's really expecting the Wildcats' offense to go bonkers on the scoreboard, but it's the defense that has Evanston alum choking on caviar.
Northwestern owns the third-worst pass coverage grade in America and the entire unit treats opposing ball-carriers like they're carrying particles of the plague, ranking just outside the top-25 in tackling.
Ohio State vs Northwestern Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Northwestern match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 101 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 17 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 69 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Northwestern Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 8 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 87 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 19 | 104 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 128 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 24 | 131 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (103) | 22.5 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 54.0% (62) | 48.1% (101) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ohio State vs Northwestern Betting Pick
There are two bets to make on this game.
College football team totals are released much later in the week, miles behind any standard spread or total market.
And this is a case where being patient and waiting certainly doesn't hurt.
Strong winds around 21 mph are in the forecast for Saturday's game, and they're already impacting odds. We have the total, which opened at 61.5, drop to as low as 57.5.
Please. Keep dipping more.
Without the adjustment, Ohio State's team total over/under is probably north of 49. There's a good chance that with the full-game total moving down, we'll likely shave a point (or more) on the number against those fading points in a potential wind game.
Though Ohio State is second nationally in yards per pass attempt, I'm still confident the Buckeyes can knife through Northwestern like hot butter.
Ohio State has posted 49 or more points in five of its past six games, sans the 44-point effort against Penn State.
I see an offense just outside the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt getting free against a defense that can't tackle. The Ohio State offense will likely also get a boatload of possessions against an inefficient Wildcats offense.
I'd do unforgivable things to get an Ohio State team total over 47.5 (or lower), but will recommend betting up a point to a max of 48.5, and not a smidge higher.
With that being said, I'll recommend a smaller bet on the full-game over at 57.5.
