The Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2, 7-2 Big Ten) take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, Jan. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The 2014 season saw the end of the BCS era and the start of the College Football Playoff.
A decade after capturing the inaugural College Football Playoff National Championship, Ohio State returns to the championship game seeking a ninth national title against Notre Dame.
The Irish have been on a heater, covering 12-of-15 games this season. Notre Dame has won 3 straight in this playoff under head coach Marcus Freeman after previously posting 2 semifinal losses in 2018 and 2020 under Brian Kelly.
A win here would give the Irish their first championship since the 1988 team under Lou Holtz.
There are plenty of common opponents for Notre Dame and Ohio State in 2024: Penn State, Indiana and Purdue. Our national title finalists won and covered in each instance against their three common opponents.
If there's a recent trend that could ultimately dictate a winner, a Notre Dame victory would be the first win for the underdog in the National Championship since Clemson in 2018. The spread has not been a factor in national title games in nearly 30 years, as only 3 favorites have failed to cover since the first BCS title game in 1998.
This championship preview will look at investments from all angles, including the spread and total. With a breakdown of run concepts and coverage looks from defenses, player props will be spread throughout the preview.
Ohio State enters as a -8.5 favorite with the over/under set at 46.5.
Let's take a look at my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for the CFP National Championship on Monday, Jan. 20.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Pick: Over 46
My Notre Dame vs. Ohio State best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 46 -110 / -110 | -380 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 46 -110 / -110 | +300 |
- Ohio State vs Notre Dame Spread: Ohio State -8 (-110) · Notre Dame +8 (-110)
- Ohio State vs Notre Dame Over/Under: 46 Points
- Ohio State vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Ohio State -380 · Notre Dame +300
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Preview
Coin Toss
Head coaches and coin-toss tendencies are crucial for predicting which team may have value in first touchdown props.
For Notre Dame, winning the toss has been one of the bigger deciding factors in game flow. The Irish rank as the top team in all of FBS with respect to the "Middle 8." Defined as the scoring differential in the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter, no coach has managed possessions better than Freeman.
Notre Dame owns a +8.7 Middle 8 differential, averaging a positive 5.9 points at the end of the second quarter to 2.8 points at the beginning of the third quarter.
Notre Dame has scored 17 points in the last 54 seconds of the Sugar Bowl. The game was tied at 3-3 before the 17 unanswered points. What a turn of events. https://t.co/Gv0U6A3TKs
— MI2TX (@SpartanFourLife) January 2, 2025
Unfortunately, both Notre Dame and Ohio State have the same coin-flip tendencies, each deferring after winning the toss. Notre Dame won the flip just four times in the regular season and three straight in the playoff, electing to defer each time.
Ohio State has won the coin toss on eight different occasions this season, also electing to defer.
The Buckeyes finished 26th in Middle 8 scoring, averaging a positive on both sides of halftime with 1.1 points in the second quarter and 1.4 points in the third quarter.
From a game-flow perspective, the Middle 8 numbers play out through the second and third quarters for Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes have nearly identical scoring differential numbers through the first three quarters — around a touchdown better than opponents this season.
The Irish's scoring differential is nearly double in the second and third quarters than the first and fourth.
If looking for a live wager on the total, both defenses rank in the top seven in points allowed through the first quarter. A potential live over could be in line after the scripted portion of the game.
Scoring differential by quarter, per SportSource Analytics.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: When OSU Has the Ball
The Buckeyes came out on fire in the Cotton Bowl, producing a methodical 10-play touchdown drive that used just four minutes of clock on the opening possession.
The drive was a box score stat stuffer for three players, as Quinshon Judkins carried the ball four times for 20 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Will Howard completed three passes to slot Emeka Egbuka for 25 yards during the drive.
Ultimately, Ohio State's run concept shift from zone read to counter has paved the way to the national title game.
JUDKINS TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/tL2Sfk0EuJ
— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) January 11, 2025
Ohio State's offensive line has powered the team after numerous injuries over the season.
Donovan Jackson has been excellent in pass protection after shifting from left guard to left tackle in Week 10 against Penn State. Jackson didn't allow a single pressure against the Longhorns in the semifinals.
Left guard Luke Montgomery drew praise from offensive coordinator Chip Kelly in his first career start, sharing the team's Offensive Player of the Game award.
Kelly’s offense can run almost any run concept but utilized zone read for most of the regular season. Ohio State implemented more counter in playoff games, a concept that has generated a 58% Success Rate and an explosive in nearly one of every four attempts.
Judkins has been a wrecking ball the past three games, increasing his yards after contact each game with 27 attempts in counter concepts.
Notre Dame's defense has been elite against gap run concepts using man blocking from opposing offensive lines. If there's one concept the Irish have struggled to defend, inside zone has produced a low 41% Success Rate while allowing a 15% big-play rate.
Kelly has run twice as much counter as zone in the playoff but could return to inside zone to take advantage of a depleted Irish interior.
Touchdown numbers and rushing yardage for both Judkins and fellow running back TreVeyon Henderson are in line with projections, but quarterback Will Howard could have an avenue to generate plenty of air yards.
Notre Dame implements a heavy amount of man coverage from defensive coordinator Al Golden. Howard has seen 169 dropbacks against man coverage, producing a 61% Success Rate with a positive EPA.
Will Howard vs. coverage types, per SportSource Analytics.
Coverage issues continued through the Orange Bowl for right cornerback Christian Gray and safety Xavier Watts.
Both combined to allow more than 50 yards after the catch, as Gray limited wideouts from a catch but allowed two targets to connect against tight ends.
Ohio State tight end Gee Scott projects for 20 receiving yards on 2.3 targets, close to the market number for his receiving prop.
There may be an avenue to take a prop on an Ohio State wide receiver against Watts. The Notre Dame strong safety has been targeted by the right wide receiver in man coverage through each of the three playoff games.
The Buckeyes position Carnell Tate at right wide receiver, and he's coming off his highest target share of the season with nine against Texas. More than 34% of targets have come in the last four games of the season, putting Tate Over 40.5 Receiving Yards in scope.
Howard’s projection of 262 yards has steadily taken money since opening at 240 yards. The steam is justified with his positive history against man coverage. Howard Over 245.5 Passing Yards will be in the portfolio, but the bigger question lies with freshman sensation wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Kelly mentioned the Texas defense rolling coverage over on Smith on every Ohio State dropback. Ultimately, Howard targeted the freshman just three times for one catch.
Both Notre Dame cornerbacks — Gray and Leonard Moore — have switched sides throughout the season. Moore has transformed into an elite corner, allowing just eight of the 26 targets against him to be caught in the past four games.
Leonard Moore tracked down Blake Horvath from the opposite side of the field to limit damage. Navy missed a field goal later on the drive. Marcus Freeman loved it.
Bottom line? The Notre Dame freshman corner helped save points. His head coach noticed. Hustle is a prerequisite. pic.twitter.com/pM3HvvjvCy
— Tyler Horka (@tbhorka) October 30, 2024
Notre Dame leads FBS in Passing Success Rate allowed and opponent EPA, as Smith Under Receiving Yards will be added before kickoff if late steam eclipses 85 yards.
Keep in mind, Freeman limited former Ohio State stud receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to just three receptions last season.
Ohio State will move into scoring position thanks to the rushing attack led by Henderson and Judkins. Although the Notre Dame offense is one of the best in red-zone touchdowns, the Buckeyes are third-best nationally with a 77% rate.
Ohio State has the fifth-lowest field-goal rate in the red zone, so expect the touchdown scorers to come on the ground between Henderson, Judkins and Howard.
Notre Dame ranks 12th in creating a contested catch, a number that improves when opponents enter the extended red zone.
There's value on Howard to record a touchdown, as he's projected for a 40% chance to score. With inside zone being the avenue for attack against the Irish, Howard Anytime Touchdown +300 has value through +150.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: When ND Has the Ball
There's no mystery as to what coordinator Mike Denbrock wants to do with the Notre Dame offense: feed the horses that charge one of the best rushing attacks in FBS.
Quarterback Riley Leonard operates a heavy inside zone rush offense with two running backs capable of creating methodical drives.
Jadarian Price has been the running back during zone read concepts with Leonard, while Jeremiyah Love excels in gap blocking and counter concepts.
Notre Dame ranks third nationally in Rush EPA, averaging a high Success Rate above 60% in counter and man blocking attempts.
Notre Dame run concepts, per SportSource Analytics.
The 4-2-5 defense of Ohio State coordinator Jim Knowles enters the national title game as the nation's best unit in preventing quality drives.
Those numbers are fueled by one of the best pass defenses in the nation, but Ohio State must improve against inside zone to stop Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes have a modest 51% Success Rate against inside zone, allowing an explosive run on one of every 10 opponent attempts.
This was an area Texas was unable to expose in the Cotton Bowl, as the Longhorns are a pure outside zone-read squad, unlike Notre Dame.
The move of safety Caleb Downs as a hybrid nickel-mike linebacker has upgraded the Ohio State defense as a premier rush defense outside the tackles.
Kirk Herbstreit and Chris Fowler talk with SVP about the Texas toss play on 2nd-and-goal from the 1-yard line that resulted in a 7-yard loss (2 plays before the Ohio State game-sealing TD). 🏈🎙️#CFPpic.twitter.com/P5nhEq2c9x
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 11, 2025
The Buckeyes have been elite against gap rush attempts using man blocking at the line of scrimmage, pointing all Notre Dame rushing props toward inside zone attempts. This leads to Price getting the most out of his rushing attempts.
Only 18% of Leonard’s rushing attempts have come from zone read, while Love is higher at 56% of his 158 rushing attempts on the season. On the season, Price has used inside zone on 65% of his 118 rushing attempts.
With an expectation of 8.2 carries and 44.5 yards in this game from our Action Network props projections, Price Over 24.5 Rushing Yards will be added to the portfolio.
Denbrock will want to keep Notre Dame out of passing downs, an area in which the Irish struggle and the Buckeyes excel.
Leonard has led a passing attack that ranks 131st in EPA with the 82nd-best Success Rate in late downs, facing an Ohio State defense that ranks second nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA.
Knowles calls man coverage on just 28% of opponent passing attempts, opting for Cover 1 and Cover 3 depending on down and distance.
Moving Jordan Hancock to deep safety has paid dividends for the Buckeyes defense, as Hancock was graded as the best coverage defender against Texas.
There could be an avenue for Leonard to thread the needle in passing downs, as opponents showing Cover 1 have been torched by Notre Dame. The Duke transfer quarterback has posted a 56% Success Rate and a large 21% big-play rate against Cover 1.
Penn State played a heavy amount of Cover 1 against Notre Dame, allowing Leonard to target tight end Mitchell Evans and slot Jaden Greathouse over the middle of the field.
Ohio State linebackers Cody Simon and Sonny Styles have had consistent issues in coverage, along with strong safety Lathan Ransom.
Evans could struggle in the Notre Dame passing attack, as Caleb Downs has covered tight ends and running backs in coverage. With a projection for Evans at 2.7 receptions and 25.8 yards, take Mitchell Evans Under 33.5 Receiving Yards or better.
Styles was targeted six times while covering Texas running backs and tight ends, and Simon was hit three times from the slot. This would suggest Greathouse is in for targets after spamming Penn State linebackers and slot corners for seven targets in the Orange Bowl.
Our prop projections are weighted on a playoff curve, projecting over three targets and 32 yards, giving Greathouse Over 20.5 Receiving Yards value.
Jaden Greathouse Orange Bowl matchups, per PFF.
The Ohio State defense showed vulnerability against Texas, allowing two methodical drives and four possessions with at least two first downs.
Considering the numbers the Buckeyes have failed to produce against inside zone and a weakness in coverage in the shallow portion of the field between the hash marks, Notre Dame should create scoring opportunities.
The Irish have been elite in red-zone touchdown rate but now face an Ohio State defense that's the best in FBS when it comes to Finishing Drives.
Ohio State & Notre Dame Special Teams
The overall numbers from SP+ paint a picture of mediocrity in the special teams department for both teams, with neither placing in the top 50.
Both teams have identical efficiencies in defending kickoff returns and punt returns. However, execution on both offensive kickoff returns and punt returns tell a different story, with Notre Dame having a heavy advantage.
Notre Dame ranks top-35 in kickoff return efficiency compared to Ohio State at 126th. Only four of 14 returns for the Buckeyes were considered efficient, per SportSource Analytics.
Notre Dame improves when it comes to punt returns, transforming into a top-10 team nationally with 37 of its 74 returns graded as efficient. Ohio State places 59th in those same analytics thanks to a timeshare between safety Caleb Downs and receiver Brandon Inniss.
Max Hurleman is the punt returner for Notre Dame, logging 22 returns for 128 yards and 16 fair catches.
There are two takeaways from the special teams comparison.
First, Notre Dame should win the field-position battle with a massive edge in punt and kickoff returns.
The player to keep an eye on for the Irish is kickoff return specialist Jayden Harrison. The Marshall transfer has 13 returns with an average of 25.8 yards, taking one to the house against Georgia.
JAYDEN HARRISON
9️⃣8️⃣ YARDS#GoIrish | @j_harrison5
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 2, 2025
Harrison has also seen usage in the passing game, generating 23 targets from Leonard for 18 receptions and 223 yards. The fifth-year senior has logged an explosive catch in four games this season for the Irish, getting into the end zone just once against Virginia in Week 12.
Harrison’s lone receiving score accounts for more than 5% of Leonard’s total passing touchdowns. Considering the special teams' recent ability to score, Jayden Harrison Anytime Touchdown +4000 serves as our long shot for the National Championship.
The season-long numbers suggest Ohio State has the advantage in field-goal kicking with Jayden Fielding’s leg. The sophomore has connected on all 69 PATs and 11-of-15 field-goal attempts.
However, three of those four missed attempts have come in recent games against Michigan and Tennessee.
The hot leg belongs to Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter, who has connected on 7-of-8 field-goal attempts in the playoff. The sweet spot for the South Carolina transfer has been from 30 to 49 yards, generating a career mark of 22-for-27 in four years.
There are props in the market for Jeter’s total kicking points. With Ohio State ranking as the best defense in terms of Finishing Drives, Jeter should be called upon for attempts.
The Notre Dame kicker has recorded 29 kicking points over three playoff games, recording eight extra points and seven field goals. Jeter Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points at plus-money on FanDuel will be added to the portfolio.
National Championship Officiating Crew
The National Championship officiating crew will be called by the SEC, led by head referee Steve Marlowe.
This is the same crew that called the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State. Both fan bases of the Nittany Lions and Broncos have plenty of complaints, as Marlowe’s crew threw 23 flags for a combined 188 penalty yards.
Those 23 penalties are the most of Marlowe’s 80-game career dating back to 2013.
The biggest question is whether or not the tendencies of Marlowe’s crew match where Ohio State and Notre Dame have been most penalized this season.
A breakdown of this crew's penalties in 2024 shows a heavy tendency of holding. Marlowe has called 21 offensive holding penalties and 15 defensive holding penalties this season.
Key explosive rushing attempts were called back in the Fiesta Bowl under Marlowe’s watch, a variable that could be on display in the National Championship.
Steve Marlowe penalty breakdown, per SportSource Analytics.
Ohio State has the advantage in penalty yards per game, ranking 15th on the season to 77th for Notre Dame. The Buckeyes uncharacteristically struggled in the Cotton Bowl, generating nine flags for 75 yards.
Ohio State has been one of the most disciplined teams in the nation, generating the ninth-best number in penalties after the snap. The Buckeyes nearly double their penalty rate in pre-snap fouls, signaling that offensive holding may not be in the cards for Ohio State.
Notre Dame may be at a disadvantage in terms of offensive penalties, drawing 3.5 offensive flags per game. The Irish rank 41st in penalty rate after the snap, an issue that consistently showed in the Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia.
The tendency of Marlowe’s crew to call offensive holding could result in an explosive rushing attempt getting called back for Notre Dame.
It's also worth noting that the Irish continue to patch together an offensive line, as left tackle Anthonie Knapp is expected to miss the national title game.
National Championship Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium serves as the venue for numerous collegiate and professional football games. The home of the Atlanta Falcons also hosted the Super Bowl in 2019, a low-scoring 13-3 victory for the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams.
The SEC Championship game officially moved to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017, and the Peach Bowl followed in January 2018.
The venue uses FieldTurf as the surface for all events, one of the most popular installations in all sports. FieldTurf is also used in the NFL home stadiums of the Giants, Lions, Panthers, Patriots and Seahawks.
The Irish are no stranger to the surface, as FieldTurf replaced natural grass at Notre Dame Stadium in 2014. Ohio State has had FieldTurf at Ohio Stadium since 2007, so field conditions will be familiar for both squads.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium has a heavier tendency to go under the total. In 100 games played in the regular season and postseason for college football and the NFL, the venue has seen a 60-39-1 mark to the under.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 1 |  |
| Havoc | 19 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 2 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 2 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 57 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (116) | 28.6 (108) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (66) | 57% (38) |
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Pick & Prediction
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have trailed in Ohio State numbers throughout the playoff, calling for Texas to cover the six points in the Cotton Bowl. With heavy recency adjustments on the Buckeyes, the power ratings fail to create a number that favors the Buckeyes over a touchdown.
Ohio State ended the Cotton Bowl with a 98% post-game win expectancy, a number that reflects the failures of the Longhorns' first-and-goal execution from the 1-yard line.
The Buckeyes are the hottest team in the sport, as power ratings have failed to capture an opportunistic roster firing on all cylinders.
JACK SAWYER REDEMPTION
NO FLAGS GETTING PLANTED TONIGHT
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 11, 2025
The sportsbooks are justified in making the point spread north of a touchdown, not only to give Ohio State credit but also in teaser protection. Four NFL Divisional Playoff games will be played before the National Championship, giving investors plenty of room to include the Buckeyes on their betting cards.
Notre Dame +8 or better is the side but will not be a heavy-volume play for me. The better bet on the Irish may come live at the start of the second half, considering the Irish's explosive scoring differential in the middle of the game.
Both offenses are expected to move the chains thanks to their specific run concept matchups.
Judkins and Henderson's counter and inside zone should take advantage of a Notre Dame defensive interior that has struggled with injury.
Notre Dame ranks 122nd in broken + missed tackle rate, an issue that could create explosives for the Buckeyes. Price's zone read and Love's gap concepts also see an Irish Success Rate advantage over the Buckeyes' defensive front.
Finally, both quarterbacks have thrived against the coverages of man and zone usage with Cover 1.
Our Action Network total projections use total points, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives in determining totals.
There may be a factor of tempo in this game from Ohio State, ending the season at a slow 29.3 seconds per play. Kelly opened the Cotton Bowl with a 10-play scoring drive that averaged 25.8 seconds per play, a much faster pace than the season average.
Kelly was complimentary of the Notre Dame secondary, carefully mentioning how well they line up and communicate pre-snap.
Notre Dame-Ohio State over 46 will be added to the betting portfolio. Our number indicates value into the low 50s, similar to the projections of Sagarin.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Picks
- Over 46 or Better
- Jadarian Price Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
- Mitchell Evans Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
- Jaden Greathouse Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
- Carnell Tate Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
- Will Howard Over 245.5 Passing Yards
- Jeremiah Smith Under 85.5 Receiving Yards or Better
- Will Howard Anytime Touchdown +300
- Jayden Harrison Anytime Touchdown +4000
- Mitch Jeter Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, Jan. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Ohio State meets Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Atlanta on Monday, Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
