The Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2, 7-2 Big Ten) take on the Oregon Ducks (13-0, 9-0) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Rose Bowl is considered the crown jewel of bowl season, as the sunset over Pasadena on New Year's Day can produce images of pure beauty.
Once a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 bowl, the College Football Playoff took over to allow other conferences to infiltrate the bowl game. The Rose Bowl will continue to play a role in the playoff in the future, but first, two teams from the same conference will meet in what looks like a Pac-12 and Big Ten showdown.
Oregon will make its 1st appearance as a Big Ten member, previously making 8 trips to Pasadena as a member of the Pac-12. The Ducks are 4-4 all-time in the game, having just completed an undefeated season that includes a conference championship.
Ohio State will make its 17th appearance in the game, entering with a 9-7 Rose Bowl record.
Head coach Ryan Day last competed in the Rose Bowl 3 years ago, winning by a field goal over Utah. The Buckeyes have two losses on the season: a 1-point nail-biter against this Oregon team and a chaotic conclusion to the regular season against Michigan.
Ohio State hangs in the market as a 2.5-point favorite in a rematch against the Ducks with the over/under at 55.5. The winner of this game will advance to Arlington for a Cotton Bowl spot against Texas or Arizona State.
Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Ohio State vs Oregon Predictions and Best Bets for Rose Bowl
- Ohio State vs. Oregon Pick: Ohio State ML -135
My Oregon vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes to win outright, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Oregon Odds, Betting Lines
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | -140 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Ohio State vs Oregon Spread: Ohio State -2.5 (-115) · Oregon +2.5 (-105)
- Ohio State vs Oregon Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- Ohio State vs Oregon Moneyline: Ohio State -140 · Oregon +120
Rose Bowl Predictions: Ohio State vs Oregon Betting Analysis
Why Ohio State Could Win As The Favorite: Schematic Changes in Columbus
Ohio State shifted gears after the loss to Oregon, tweaking the defensive scheme of coordinator Jim Knowles' 4-2-5.
Oregon is not only the lone offense to score over 30 points on the Buckeyes, but it remains the only team to exceed 17.
When asked about the changes to the defense from Knowles, the response was "a renewed intensity, line up faster and do your job."
While that could be interpreted as coach speak, the real change happened on the back end of the defense.
Caleb Downs was the most sought-after defensive player in the portal cycle a year ago, leaving Alabama and landing in Columbus.
After the Oregon loss, Knowles moved Jordan Hancock to his single high safety role in the nickel scheme that uses a heavy amount of Cover 1.
This move allowed Downs to serve as a queen on a chess board, populating every square as the most dominant force on the Buckeyes defense.
CALEB DOWNS IS HI❌. pic.twitter.com/kBYoaDhnMO
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 30, 2024
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly found no success in a loss to Michigan, producing a low 23% Success Rate with an average of 2.96 yards per play.
The zone-read concepts for running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins were stuffed, and OSU didn't take passing shots downfield.
Quarterback Will Howard was limited to an average depth of target at 7.7 yards, producing three turnover-worthy plays against the Wolverines.
Kelly went back to the drawing board before the first round of the College Football Playoff against Tennessee. Ohio State opted to pass in standard downs, using wheel routes to running backs and other methods to create explosives against the Volunteers defense.
Howard thrived, going 24-of-29 with two touchdowns and one of the quickest release times of the season at 2.5 seconds to throw.
Why Oregon Could Win As The Underdog: Falling Off?
Oregon has shown cracks in the defensive armor over the second half of the season. Once known for a vicious pass rush and a hoarding secondary, the defense has fallen outside the top 50 in creating contested catches.
The Ducks had been resigned to simply outscoring opponents without any indication of producing defensive stops. The difference in the Penn State game came down to a turnover at the 1-yard line that produced a quick Jordan James touchdown.
The Oregon offense uses inside zone to create a respectable Success Rate on the ground through running backs Jordan James and Noah Whittington.
Both rushers have been crucial in creating shallow catches from quarterback Dillon Gabriel, gobbling 54 targets and producing plenty of yards out of the backfield.
The heavy lifting for explosives has come from wideout Evan Stewart and slot Tez Johnson.
Dillon Gabriel DEEP to Tez Johnson🚀
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 13, 2024
The Ducks' nickel defense must improve over the play from the final month of the season. Penn State averaged 8.7 yards on the ground against Oregon on 34 rushing attempts, logging nine runs that exceeded 12 yards.
Oregon finished the season 67th in Rushing Success Rate allowed with a bottom-15 number in Stuff Rate, unable to control the line of scrimmage against any opponent.
Ohio State vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Oregon match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 6 |  |
| Havoc | 20 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 13 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 2 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 5 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 58 | 21 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 92 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (113) | 24.9 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (64) | 53% (66) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction
There are a number of takeaways from the box score produced in the first game between Oregon and Ohio State.
The Ducks won the turnover battle and held a small victory in the yards-per-play battle. Oregon had the better field position by far thanks to 157 hidden yards, averaging a starting field position of the 35-yard line compared to the 21 for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes found a 64% Success Rate in 36 passing downs, averaging 8.8 yards with 10 passes exceeding 15 yards.
Howard's slide came as time expired, but there was every reason to believe Ohio State would have made the 47-yard field goal, as kicker Jayden Fielding has gone 5-of-6 from 40 to 49 yards this season.
Fast forward to the conference championship, and the Oregon defense may be in worse shape than the initial matchup.
Penn State had no resistance to its offense in Indianapolis, posting two explosive drives and three methodical drives on 12 possessions.
Man and counter run concepts have hurt the Ducks on the ground all season — two schemes the Buckeyes use frequently.
Oregon has fallen outside the top 50 in broken tackles allowed, so second-level runs for Judkins and Henderson could create instant points.
Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke has been laser-focused on redemption in this game after giving up 162 yards to the Ducks. Since the loss to Oregon, Burke has allowed just 120 yards in seven games on 18 opponent targets.
The switch of Hancock to deep safety and Downs in multiple positions has been a great revelation for the Buckeyes. Opposing quarterbacks have an NFL rating of 59 targeting Hancock, while Downs didn't allow a catch to Purdue, Michigan, Indiana or Tennessee.
Both safeties have combined for 36 stops on the season and just six missed tackles since the Oregon game.
Look for Howard to continue his clean play against a sinking Ducks secondary, while the tweak to Knowles' 4-2-5 scheme with Cover 1 will present issues for Gabriel.
Oregon lost the yards-per-play battle in the initial matchup, so Ohio State will be sure to take a page out of Penn State's book to create quick scoring opportunities.
Pick: Ohio State ML -135 or Better
Ohio State vs Oregon Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, Jan. 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Ohio State takes on Oregon in the Rose Bowl on Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
