The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 2-0 in conference play) travel to Eugene to take on the No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0) on Saturday, Oct. 12, at 7:30 p.m. on NBC. This top-3 Week 7 matchup is streaming live on Peacock, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
Ohio State is a consensus 3.5-point favorite over Oregon on the spread (Ohio State -3.5), with the over/under currently set at 54.5 points scored. The Buckeyes are -160 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, with the Ducks +135 to pull off the upset at home. In injury news, Oregon star defensive end Jordan Burch is listed as questionable as we get closer and closer to kickoff.
Ohio State handled the 3-2 Iowa Hawkeyes 35-7 last week, easily covering the 17.5-point spread, although the game went under the total of 45.5. Oregon took down Michigan State last Friday night 31-10, but the Ducks did not cover as 21.5-point favorites.
Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12 below.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Picks, Predictions
- Ohio State vs. Oregon Pick: Oregon +3.5 (-120)
My Oregon vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Ducks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
But before we dive into the game, we have to talk about how we got to this monumental clash between one of the Big Ten's most successful members and the Big Ten's newest member.
Michigan and Ohio State have owned the podium for the conference throughout recent history, but the addition of the Oregon Ducks has created more depth to the top of the Big Ten.
Oregon rolled into Columbus as two-touchdown underdogs before burying Ohio State early in the 2021 season, but a change in regime brought current head coach Dan Lanning to Eugene in 2022.
Even though Oregon is the newest member of the Big Ten, there's plenty of familiarity between the coaching staffs. Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is a former head coach of the Ducks, establishing a menacing ground attack that got Oregon to the national title game in 2011.
The hiring of Kelly in Columbus sent a wave of change to Eugene, as running backs coach Carlos Locklyn left Oregon to take on the same role with Ohio State during the spring.
This will be the biggest game in Autzen Stadium history; it has never seen a matchup between top-three teams.
The stakes could not be any higher, as the winner is expected to take the top spot in the AP Top 25 Poll and pole position in the Big Ten Conference.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Ohio State vs Oregon Spread: Ohio State -3.5
- Ohio State vs Oregon Over/Under: 54.5 points
- Ohio State vs Oregon Moneyline: Ohio State -160, Oregon +135
Oregon vs. Ohio State Betting Trends
- 63% of bets and 64% of the money are on Ohio State to cover the spread.
- 73% of bets and 88% of the money are on the over.
- 90% of bets and 93% of the money are on Ohio State to win outright.
Ohio State Football vs. Oregon Football Week 7 Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day was clear on who the winner will be: the team that can run and protect the football.
The Buckeyes have one of the softer strength of schedules in the nation, coming in at 109th after games against Iowa, Michigan State, Marshall and a couple of MAC teams.
The data point in that group should be Iowa, which owns the second-best defense, per SP+. The Hawkeyes defense is elite against the pass but still falls within the top 30 in Line Yards.
Judkins with the TOUGH stiff arm 🙌 @quinshon_ is like that! @OhioStateFBpic.twitter.com/J9F8X8pxfS
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2024
Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson posted double-digit rushing attempts against Iowa, each averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. The Buckeyes had 11 third-down attempts with a short average distance of 4.7 yards to go thanks to the rushing attack.
Mixing inside and outside zone read, Ohio State dominated on the ground to the tune of a 66% Success Rate while being stuffed on a low 8-of-39 attempts. If there was any issue with the running game, Iowa allowed just one rushing attempt to clear 20 yards.
The Buckeyes also amped up the designed rush attempts from quarterback Will Howard. The former Kansas State signal-caller rushed 212 times for the Wildcats in a system that called for multiple running backs and quarterback keepers.
However, Howard had attempted only 19 designed runs for the Buckeyes, but that number jumped up against Iowa with six rushes for 26 yards.
The biggest X-factor for the Ohio State offense is its ability to stay in standard downs during zone-read attempts for Howard.
On the other side of the ball, there could be minor tweaks by defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and his 4-2-5 defense.
Ohio State has maintained a blitz rate of just under 30% but has not run a single play in Cover 0. The Buckeyes have often used Cover 0 in their biggest games to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks.
The schedule may have played a factor in what the Buckeyes have shown so far, as Marshall has been the highest-ranked offense they've faced.
Ohio State doesn't have any holes in the defensive numbers, taking the top spot nationally in Quality Drives, Finishing Drives and Passing Downs Success Rate.
The Ducks' offensive tackles must deal with edge Jack Sawyer, who lands in the top 25 of PFF's individual pass-rush productivity rankings.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview
During his weekly press conference, Lanning mentioned a change in play-calling and communication because of the familiarity of the coaching staffs.
Outside of the communication on offense, Oregon must center on the issues with quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
The former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback has logged three red-zone interceptions in the last two games against Michigan State and UCLA. Gabriel's mistakes have been minimal to this point, logging only four turnover-worthy plays.
In the toughest games of the season, the sixth- year quarterback saw a skyrocketing rate of big-time throws.
Dillon Gabriel 🚀 Tez Johnson
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 29, 2024
The struggles for the Ducks offense have come in two separate areas: creating explosives and Finishing Drives.
Oregon sits outside the top 90 in both Rush and Pass EPA, but with Gabriel's average depth of target below seven yards, offensive coordinator Will Stein could be holding plenty off film.
Stein's offense has stayed consistent on the ground despite the change in quarterback from Bo Nix to Gabriel, running a heavy amount of inside and outside zone read.
However, despite facing against one of the easier schedules of defenses, Oregon ranks just 93rd in red-zone efficiency.
Performance in scoring position is also an issue for a defense that ranks outside the top 100. In 17 possessions that crossed the Ducks' 40-yard line, opponents are averaging 4.2 points per trip.
Line Yards have been an issue against heavy rush offenses such as Oregon State. The Beavers dominated the trench, racking up a 57% Success Rate on 30 carries while getting stuffed on only five attempts.
Those numbers were even higher against Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty of Boise State in a game the Ducks narrowly won in Week 2. With red-zone and defensive rush numbers taking a dip, Oregon has lived on Defensive Havoc.
Jordan Burch's 2.5 sacks tonight are the most for @oregonfootball at home since 2007 💪
Watch them here 👇#B1GFootball x #B1GStatspic.twitter.com/FBdw7XgicK
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 5, 2024
Edge Jordan Burch and defensive tackle Derrick Harmon have been in frenzy mode all season, combining for 46 pressures and 35 quarterback hurries through five games.
The Ducks rank second nationally in Havoc, with the biggest contribution coming from the secondary. Oregon ranks second of all FBS team in passes defensed, a measurement of pass breakups and interceptions.
Four individual defenders have recorded interceptions, while 11 defenders have recorded a pass breakup. The biggest contributor is cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. After transferring from Washington following last year's national title run, Muhammad has allowed just 12-of-26 targets to be caught.
Oregon vs. Ohio State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Ohio State match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 22 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 37 |  |
| Pass Success | 21 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 31 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 18 | 3 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 32 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (80) | 27.3 (67) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (76) | 51% (80) |
How To Bet My Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction
The heavyweight fight from Autzen Stadium has dozens of variables that will determine the outcome of the game.
The prior experience and knowledge of the Ohio State coaching staff could play a factor in giving the Buckeyes an edge. Day acknowledged that there are similarities between the current Oregon defense versus the Georgia scheme ran with Lanning and Kirby Smart for a number of years.
The Buckeyes saw the Lanning footprint in the 2022 College Football Playoff, as quarterback CJ Stroud generated more than 40 points.
The familiarity doesn't end there, though, as the Buckeyes are familiar with one of Oregon's biggest Havoc creators in Harmon. The defensive interior started for Michigan State last season and was limited to a single pressure and three tackles in 49 snaps against Ohio State.
Offensively, Kelly called the plays for UCLA in a loss to Oregon in 2022. The Bruins dominated Lanning's defense on the ground, generating 6.2 yards per play and a 67% Success Rate during rushing attempts.
Kelly ultimately lost that battle because of poor defense, but the offensive game plan was effective.
There's an expectation that Ohio State will have plenty of success with inside zone read calls against Oregon's run defense.
The Ducks were shredded by Boise State and a host of other offenses by the run concept, producing a low 44% Success Rate with a negative EPA per Play.
The strength of the Oregon defense comes in the back seven, centering on one of the few weaknesses with Howard's passing game dating back to Kansas State.
Ohio State is expected to create plenty of ground explosives with Henderson and Judkins, setting up scoring opportunities against a Ducks defense that has been steamrolled in the extended red zone.
The narrative around Oregon's offense is the poor numbers from an explosiveness standpoint. Gabriel is averaging his lowest average depth of target thanks to a heavy amount of hitch and wide receiver screens through the first six weeks of play.
Stein must call for passes downfield passing from Gabriel, as Nix lost to Washington twice last season with an average depth of target at 6.1 yards.
The biggest key to avoiding turnover-worthy plays from a Buckeyes defense that will send pressure and Cover 0 is to get Gabriel on the move through zone read.
Gabriel had his number called in rushing attempts on more than 60 plays at Oklahoma a year ago, as the ability to create missed tackles and generate explosives has been a part of the quarterback's DNA since 2019 at UCF.
Quarterback runs could also open holes for one of the best running backs in the nation in Jordan James. Oregon has created an explosive run on 11-of-31 rushing attempts with James using power run concepts.
The junior has already created 20 rushes of at least 10 yards while racking up 25 missed tackles on 88 attempts. More importantly, Ohio State has seen 17 rushing attempts using power this season, posting a dreadful 35% Success Rate with a large negative EPA.
Both Oregon and Ohio State have a path through the ground game to get into scoring position.
Howard should be limited against an Oregon pass defense that's one of the best in the nation in creating contested catches.
Gabriel should see plenty of success moving the pocket in RPO situations, but he may be pressured in passing attempts until a ground game is established.
Rushing prop overs should be considered for both Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel, while a Jordan James anytime touchdown should also be in play.
Our Action Network Power Ratings call for this game to be exactly where the market has stalled on the side, with Ohio State favored by a field goal in Autzen.
The last number to take on Oregon pregame is +3.5.
Keep live wagers in mind when looking to get both sides, as Day ranks 32nd in the "Middle 8" versus 90th for Lanning.
The projected total for this game is inflated because of the soft strength of schedule played by both teams up to this point. Expect each team to feel each other out on the ground, setting up play-action and moving pockets in the second half.
Collin Wilson's Ohio State vs. Oregon Bets
- Oregon +3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- First Quarter Under 10.5
- Jordan James Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
- Will Howard Over 17 Rushing Yards
- Dillon Gabriel Anytime TD (+210)
Ohio State vs Oregon Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / YouTube TV, Peacock |
Oregon vs. Ohio State Weather
