The Cotton Bowl will serve as a College Football Playoff semifinal with high stakes for the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2, 7-2 Big Ten) and Texas Longhorns (13-2, 7-1 SEC). Friday's kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The two teams have met just three times in history, as the Longhorns hold a 2-1 advantage dating back to the last matchup at the 2008 Fiesta Bowl.
A win here will create an opportunity to win another National Championship. Texas has won 9 previous national titles with the last coming in 2005, while Ohio State is seeking its 9th after last winning the 1st College Football Playoff in 2014.
Texas has gone in the wrong direction over the past 3 games after entering the SEC Championship game as an 11-1 team. Head coach Steve Sarkisian took a 2nd consecutive loss to Georgia in the conference title, as Bulldogs backup quarterback Gunner Stockton led an overtime victory.
After that, Texas covered the opening line in the first round of the CFP against Clemson before nearly getting upset by Arizona State in double overtime last week.
If the feeling of Texas football is that the peak is in the rear-view mirror, Ohio State is firmly driving with eyes through the windshield. After an embarrassing 13-10 loss to rival Michigan in the season finale, the Buckeyes missed the Big Ten Championship game and were saddled to play host in the first round.
Head coach Ryan Day quickly put to rest rumors of his firing with a firm 42-17 domination of Tennessee. With revenge in mind from a Week 7 loss in Eugene, Ohio State dominated Oregon in the Rose Bowl, 41-21, to reach this point.
Ohio State enters as a -6 favorite with the over/under sitting at 53.5.
Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Friday, Jan. 10.
Ohio State vs Texas Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Texas Pick: Texas +6
My Texas vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Longhorns to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Texas Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 53 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 53 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Ohio State vs Texas Spread: Ohio State -6 (-105) · Texas +6 (-115)
- Ohio State vs Texas Over/Under: 53 Points
- Ohio State vs Texas Moneyline: Ohio State -225 · Texas +185
Ohio State vs Texas Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Stellar Play All Around
The run-first mentality of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has taken a step back, opting to throw in standard downs at a higher clip.
The change has paid dividends for the offense, as quarterback Will Howard hasn't recorded a turnover-worthy play through eight quarters of playoff with five big-time throws.
Only three receivers saw a target in the Rose Bowl, with slot Emeka Egbuka and wideout Jeremiah Smith combining for 259 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Emeka Egbuka arguably the highest floor of any WR prospect coming out of the draft this year.
Tyler Lockett/Terry McLaurin comp pic.twitter.com/TJDGtE8yH1
— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) January 1, 2025
Not to be forgotten is the zone-read rushing attack led by TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The pair combined for 25 inside and outside zone attempts for 179 rushing yards against Oregon.
The difference with the offense can be centered around the aggressiveness in early downs.
There certainly is no fluke in Ohio State's two wins in the playoff. The Buckeyes doubled up the Ducks in overall yards per play, generating four drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.
Oregon's number, though, was driven by the best defensive performance by Ohio State all season.
Oregon attempted 20 rushing attempts and was stuffed on 18 of them. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' 4-2-5 unit generated a 90% Stuff Rate — well above the national average of Stuff Rate 30%.
The defense's Cover 1 with Jordan Hancock as the single-high safety has allowed Caleb Downs to roam the defensive backfield, but Oregon chose to target high-percentage short-yardage throws against the Ohio State linebackers.
Sonny Styles and Cody Simon did allow 15-of-16 targets to be caught for 169 yards, a potential window for the Texas offense.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Can Horns Hang?
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has had his hands full in two playoff games, as both Clemson and Arizona State have targeted the middle of the Texas defense.
The 3-3-5 personnel has been elite on paper, ranking top-five in nearly every defensive category.
Georgia may have provided the blueprint to defeat the Longhorns in the SEC Championship, targeting tight ends and running backs between the hashmarks in the passing game.
As discussed in our quarterfinal preview, opposing offenses could find success in the slot. Arizona State spammed its running back and slot receiver for 19 targets, opening lanes for deeper shots to the wideouts.
The good news for the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl was an increase in extended red-zone efficiency, going over their season average with 3.9 points for possessions extending beyond the 40-yard line.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers continued to dominate Cover 1, throwing for more than 300 yards with three touchdowns on the day.
While the outside zone read was neutralized for just 2.5 yards per play, Ewers targeted right-side wide receiver Matthew Golden 10 times for 149 yards and a score.
Texas WR Matthew Golden vs Arizona State
Consistent “riser” — excellent burst and hands, dynamic in the air. 31 targets the last three weeks with a really intriguing profile. pic.twitter.com/iaWObGsfLx
— Ryan Fowler (@_RyanFowler_) January 2, 2025
Ewers' ability to pick up the blitz has kept him as the top quarterback in Austin. The former Ohio State recruit has seen blitz on 28% of snaps this season, producing a moderate 50% Success Rate.
Where Ewers stands ahead is his ability to detect blitz and fill the gap, generating a big-play rate of 22.4% with 12 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
The junior hasn't thrown an interception to the left of the hashmarks this season, recording 15 big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays on attempts beyond 20 yards.
Ohio State vs Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Texas match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 3 |  |
| Havoc | 20 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 1 | |
Texas Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 2 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 64 | 120 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (51) | 20.8 (6) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (64) | 53% (78) |
Ohio State vs Texas Pick & Prediction
The handicap in this game is verifying whether or not Ohio State deserves a massive jump in power rating over the past two games.
The updated Action Network projection took an ultra-aggressive approach to changes on this Ohio State team but still projected the Buckeyes to win by three points.
Sagarin has been one of the more respected power rating services for years, making Ohio State -3.2 over Texas. Do the Buckeyes deserve the massive jump in the market, or is this another case of a team getting hot at the right time like the Joe Burrow-led LSU Tigers in 2019?
Despite the poor defensive play over the past two games, there's reason to think Texas can hang on both sides of the ball.
Ohio State plays a heavy amount of Cover 1, a zone look that the Texas passing game has dominated even as recently as the Arizona State game in the Peach Bowl.
Ewers has a high 57% Success Rate against Cover 1, generating an explosive play on a monster 23% of attempts. Oregon targeted Hancock, the deep safety, more than any other team on the schedule. The Buckeyes' safety allowed five catches and 24 yards after catch.
While Ewers has found success in the passing game, the Ohio State run defense has been elite and will have the advantage.
The outside zone from Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue has been underwhelming, and Ohio State excels in stopping the run concept. Knowles' defense produces a 59% Success Rate against outside zone, generating a negative play in nearly one of every five attempts.
The game will be decided by how well Kwiatkowski and the Longhorns can defend and adjust against Ohio State's aggressiveness.
Two players should have extreme success in attacking the middle of the Texas defense: Egbuka in the slot and Henderson in the backfield. Both attack the middle of the defense through the passing game, and Longhorns linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. has had extreme issues in coverage.
The biggest weapon in the passing game for the Buckeyes is wideout Jeremiah Smith, but Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron will get the assignment at cornerback. Barron has been massive since moving from nickel to corner, producing five interceptions and nine pass breakups this season.
There's reason to believe the play of other defensive backs has improved as well.
Cornerback Malik Muhammad stepped up his play at free safety in coverage grading in the Peach Bowl, posting two pass breakups against Arizona State. Jaylon Guilbeau also allowed three catches for just 17 total yards from the slot position.
There's enough data to believe the Texas secondary can cover enough to slow down OSU's blitzkrieg offense.
While the Texas rushing attack should struggle to control the line of scrimmage, look for Ewers to have plenty of success against the Buckeyes' Cover 1 defense.
Sticking by our projections that Ohio State wins this game by no more than four points, Texas +6 is the play on the side.
If Ohio State wins the game and advances to the National Championship, Henderson will lead the heavy inside zone read along with Ebuka in the passing game.
Henderson averages 1.8 catches per game with an average of 8.2 yards per catch. His season-long average is 14.7 receiving yards per game, but Henderson has received more targets in the past two playoff games than any other game this season.
In six of the past seven games, Henderson has logged 19 yards or more in the receiving game, signaling value on his receiving yards prop.
Pick: Texas +6 or Better · TreVeyon Henderson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards or Better
Ohio State vs Texas Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, Jan. 10 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Ohio State meets Texas in the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Friday, Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
