Wisconsin vs Ohio State Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Ohio State looks to remain undefeated when it heads to Madison to take on Wisconsin. OSU enters as a -14.5 favorite, while the over/under for this Big Ten battle sits at 46.
The Buckeyes are coming off a huge 20-12 victory over Penn State in Columbus, which means their season could come down to the final game against Michigan.
However, they can't get tripped up before that game, so they need to continue to play well or Wisconsin will pull of an upset.
The Badgers were looking lifeless against Illinois on Saturday before scoring 18 points in the fourth quarter to win, 25-21. The win keeps them alive to win the Big Ten West after Iowa's loss this weekend to Minnesota.
They are trying to erase some bad history on Saturday night as well, as Ohio State has won nine straight games against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's offense still has the same identity even though Phil Longo is now the offensive coordinator. It nearly has a 50-50 split between the run and the pass, but it's not explosive whatsoever. The Badgers rank 36th in Success Rate but 129th in explosiveness.
They're going to have to run the ball effectively to beat Ohio State, which they can do with Allen. The Badgers are 10th in Rushing Success Rate and 12th in Offensive Line Yards with Allen averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 3.96 yards per carry after contact.
The offensive line is going to be incredibly key for Wisconsin here. Ohio State's defensive front has been pushed around from time to time, so if it can dominate the line of scrimmage, it will run the ball effectively.
One of the other big things for Wisconsin in this game is its ability to finish off drives. the Badgers sit 34th in Finishing Drives, averaging 4.43 points every time they cross the opponent's 40-yard line.
Tanner Mordecai is out indefinitely with a hand injury, so Braedyn Locke will take over the starting quarterback role for the foreseeable future. Locke led the fourth-quarter comeback against Illinois, but he really wasn't that effective, averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt.
The Badgers defense has been pretty good this season, allowing only 4.7 yards per play (23rd in FBS) and ranking 12th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Wisconsin switched to a new defensive system under defensive coordinator Mike Tressel, who was with Luke Fickell in Cincinnati and went through some growing pains early on. However, the Badgers are really starting to find their stride on that side of the ball.
The Badgers have an incredibly good secondary that's allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and ranks inside the top 20 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, so it will be able to slow down McCord.
Ohio State Buckeyes
There are real problems with Ohio State's offense right now, and it's because it can't run the ball effectively. The Buckeyes are 74th in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards, along with owning a rank of 123rd in rushing explosiveness.
Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum were healthy enough to play against Penn State, but both were completely shut down, carrying the ball a combined 33 times for only 84 yards.
TreVeyon Henderson, their best running back, has missed the last three game and is questionable to play in this game. If he doesn't play, that's a massive problem because running the ball is how teams beat Wisconsin.
That means all of the pressure is going to be on Kyle McCord to throw over a top-20 secondary. McCord has been impressive this season, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt while ranking seventh in EPA.
But he will potentially be without one of his biggest weapons again in Emeka Egbuka, who has missed the last two games.
Ohio State's defense has been incredibly impressive this season and is the reason why it's 7-0. The Buckeyes rank second in the country in yards per play allowed at 3.8.
Penn State's Drew Allar struggled trying to throw on Ohio State's secondary. In fact, no quarterback has found success against the Buckeyes. OSU ranks third in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass, which means Wisconsin will have to have success on the ground, which is possible.
Ohio State ranks 67th in Defensive Line Yards and 53rd in rushing explosivness allowed, so Wisconsin has to get Braelon Allen going.
Wisconsin vs Ohio State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Wisconsin match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs Wisconsin Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 17 |  |
| Havoc | 8 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 14 | |
Wisconsin Offense vs Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 22 | 14 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 62 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (71) | 24.9 (28) |
| Rush Rate | 50.3% (83) | 50.7% (80) |
Wisconsin vs Ohio State
Betting Prediction, Picks
If Wisconsin is able to run the ball effectively, it will be live underdogs in this game even though it's playing with a backup quarterback.
The Badgers need to dominate the line of scrimmage, which they can do given how successful their offensive line has been at creating running lanes for Allen. Ohio State ranks outside the top 70 in Defensive Line Yards and sits 69th in Stuff Rate Allowed, so the Badgers have a great opportunity to control this game.
With Ohio State's inability to run the ball, that means the pressure is going to once again be on McCord to deliver. However, his performance against Penn State doesn't give me much confidence in his ability to throw on a top-20 secondary.
Wisconsin also ranks top-15 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives Allowed, so we could have another defensive slugfest on our hands.
This is a letdown spot for Ohio State after its huge win over Penn State. It's also a good sell-high spot on the Buckeyes, so I like the value on Wisconsin +14.5.
