The storylines surrounding today's Ohio State vs. Michigan matchup are almost countless … which can probably said for most years' edition of "The Game."
Prior to the start of the season, this was circled as perhaps Michigan's final big hurdle on a potential run to its first College Football Playoff. I mean, the Wolverines were 3.5-point favorites in Game of the Year lines over the summer.
That forecast obviously turned out to be wrong, as it's now Ohio State facing a final hurdle — though a 9-point spread puts the use of that term into question — en route to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Speaking of forecasts …
A further-down-the-list storyline for this game is the weather in Ann Arbor. While not expected to be horrible, it definitely doesn't look great. And it certainly doesn't look optimal for scoring points — at least if history is any indication.
Since 2005, games with average wind speeds of 13 mph or greater have hit the under at a 57% rate on a sample of more than 900 games.
The current forecast projects wind speeds right around 12 mph, so it's very possible that this game won't join the sample if the wind expectations die down before kickoff.
Odds and forecast as of Saturday at 7:30 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
However, this game offers a second factor that provides historical value to the under: cold temperatures.
By Michigan's standards, things could get a lot worse than a day in the 30s. Compared to an average college football game, though, these temps are certainly low enough to be of note, especially when paired with the expected wind.
Games featuring both wind speeds greater than 10 mph and temperatures below 40 degrees have gone 91-64-3 (58%) to the under since 2005, and it looks like this one should have no trouble meeting those criteria.
The total for this game opened as high as 55 at the earliest books to market, but now sits at just 49.5 despite 71% of bettors taking the over. If the forecast holds up or worsens, it's certainly possible that we could see the number dip a bit more before kickoff.
