Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -108 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -112 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
I'm not sure anybody could have predicted this run for Notre Dame after it dropped a home game early in the season to Northern Illinois as a four-touchdown favorite.
Since then, the Irish have won every game and covered 11 in a row, depending on the closing line you use for their game against Virginia.
The defense has led the way along with a strong rushing attack (especially when you add in quarterback Riley Leanord's legs) and a dynamite staff that has pushed all the right buttons during their current winning streak.
The special teams were a major issue during the regular season, mainly due to a horrific field goal-kicking situation, but that has since been rectified with a now-healthy Mitch Jeter.
The biggest deficiency by far is the passing attack. Riley Leonard has limitations as a downfield passer, and his receiving corps on the outside is far from elite.
The defensive line is a bit undersized, and the Irish have also dealt with injuries in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which could come back to bite them in this game.
Ohio State has also orchestrated a pretty remarkable turnaround since losing to Michigan in embarrassing fashion as a substantial favorite on its home field to close out the regular season.
The Buckeyes have made major schematic changes on both sides of the ball, leading to fruitful results despite major offensive line injuries.
The defense is arguably the best in the nation, and the offense has finally opened things up to take full advantage of the nation's best wide receiver room.
So, how do these teams match up? It doesn't look great for Notre Dame on paper.
While I project the spread at right around a touchdown, I admittedly may still be too low on Ohio State after its recent surge, so I'm not running to the window to back the Irish at +8.5, especially after diving deeper into the Xs and Os.
Notre Dame's Offense vs. Ohio State's Defense
Let's start when Notre Dame has the ball.
Will the Irish be able to run it consistently? I have my doubts. Ohio State boasts the top rushing defense in the country, which has peaked at the perfect time. Just take a look at what its three opponents have done on the ground in the College Football Playoff:
- Tennessee: 39 for 152 (35 for 187 sans sacks)
- Oregon: 28 for -23 (20 for 33 sans sacks)
- Texas: 29 for 58 (25 for 85 sans sacks)
Those three dynamic rushing attacks totaled 96 rush attempts for 187 yards — an average of less than two yards per carry. If you remove the 16 sacks for 118 yards, the average jumps to just 3.8 yards (80 for 305).
And those sacks are worth noting since Ohio State compiled those gaudy numbers against elite offensive lines (at least in the case of Oregon and Texas) with much more talent than Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes also can generate pressure without having to blitz. That's critical against Leonard, who has struggled immensely when pressured and not blitzed, ranking outside the top 100 in passing grades in those situations.
Both Ohio State edge rushers should cause plenty of Havoc throughout the night, possibly leading to a critical mistake or two in known passing situations.
Plus, it's not like Notre Dame's rushing attack has been firing on all cylinders in the College Football Playoff.
If you remove Jeremiyah Love's 98-yard scamper against Indiana, the Irish have averaged only 3.2 yards per carry (113 for 366), including sacks. If you remove the eight sacks they have allowed in those three contests, the average jumps to only 3.85 (105 for 404).
The one hole on the Ohio State defense, relatively speaking, is outside at cornerback, but it's not like Notre Dame has the horses to take full advantage.
Lastly, when Notre Dame does indeed drive the length of the field, it will find it very difficult to punch it in the end zone against the top red-zone defense in the country.
This Ohio State defense is scary right now, especially with Caleb Downs now playing more in the box. I'm just not sure how Notre Dame will consistently move the ball or finish drives with touchdowns unless it gets super creative.
Ohio State's Offense vs. Notre Dame's Defense
Now, let's take a look at the other side when Ohio State is on offense.
Notre Dame played more man coverage than any team in the country, ranking No. 1 in many metrics. Will it switch it up after seeing Texas have so much success using two high safeties and 80% zone coverage?
It's not like Notre Dame runs exclusively man, but it would be hard to change its identity entirely by duplicating the Longhorn defensive game plan, which ultimately did give them a very good chance of winning that game.
Cornerback Leonard Moore stated, "We're not going to change who we are," while Marcus Freeman said, "We'll obviously have to mix things up."
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Al Golden is one of the best defensive coordinators in college football, so I anticipate he'll have a few wrinkles, but Notre Dame will still run plenty of man coverage.
I'm just not sure how much success the Irish will have in man against the elite trio of Ohio State receivers. It's no surprise Will Howard finished as the No. 1 quarterback in the country against man coverage by some measures.
And while Notre Dame's coverage stats are tremendous, how many elite wide receivers did it actually face during the season? Even in the CFP, it's not like Indiana is loaded with NFL-caliber receivers.
Elijah Sarratt is a good player who finished with four catches for 67 yards. Penn State's receiving corps is underwhelming, to say the least, and the same can be said for Georgia, which also played with a backup quarterback.
During the regular season, the Irish only really faced two top-25 offenses with elite receivers: Louisville and USC. In both games, their receivers feasted:
- Ja'Corey Brooks: 5 for 71, 2 TD
- Caullin Lacy: 5 for 71
- Makai Lemon: 9 for 133
You have to beat this Irish secondary with deep routes, which both the Cardinals and Trojans did, as they had three and four players with at least one catch over 20 yards, respectively.
Even with a backup quarterback, USC threw for 360 yards.
Ohio State's passing attack is even better than both. There will be plenty of opportunities to hit explosive passing plays through the air.
Due to some offensive line injuries, Ohio State also recently changed its running scheme to include more gap-based runs, which have given Notre Dame trouble this season.
So, what can Notre Dame do to slow down the Buckeyes?
It starts with slowing down the ground game on early downs, then creating pressure (which Golden can certainly scheme up) to hopefully force Howard into some mistakes.
The Irish have been opportunistic on defense all season (+17 turnover margin) and will almost certainly need to win the turnover battle in this game to have a chance.
Ultimately, the matchup isn't great on either side of the ball for Notre Dame, so it must make up the difference in other areas, including the aforementioned turnover margin.
Freeman, who has been the best coach in the CFP to date for my money, can also have a significant impact by staying aggressive and winning the special teams battle.
Notre Dame has also been the best team in the country this season in the Middle 8, which is an area where it can potentially double up Ohio State by stealing a possession. It will take some creativity to win this game without flukes or turnovers, but the Irish have the staff to devise ways to keep this close.
I project the spread around a touchdown, showing slight value in the Irish, but not enough to get involved since I really don't like matchups on either side of the ball for Notre Dame. I may look to back Ohio State live if it gets behind, for what it's worth.
Regarding the total, it will likely come down to Notre Dame's defensive game plan, how aggressive Golden wants to be with his coverages and how much tempo Chip Kelly wants to utilize, so I probably won't be involved pregame there.
While I don't have a side or total as of this moment, I did play some props. Here are my two favorite targets in that market:
Emeka Egbuka's Big Day
I do expect Notre Dame to provide extra attention to slowing down stud freshman Jeremiah Smith, especially since that game plan worked so well for Texas. While Notre Dame did leave their cornerbacks on an island at times vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. last season, they also bracketed plenty.
That should open the door for Egbuka to have a big day, which is exactly what has happened in the previous two meetings against Notre Dame. Egbuka finished with 7 for 96 and 9 for 90 in those two contests, with a long of at least 23 yards in each game.
Egbuka is the perfect receiver to try some deep shots with against man coverage, and he's also extremely adept at finding holes in the zone if Notre Dame decides to up its zone coverage rates.
I also expect him to get a handful of easy catches in the screen game, which is why I fancy his receptions over prop.
Because of those potential deep shots, I like him to clear his longest reception prop of 19.5 yards. He caught a pass of at least 20 yards in 9-of-15 games (and 5-of-6 against ranked opponents) this season, with many of those coming in blowout fashion before Ohio State really opened up its passing attack.
It also won't hurt to have his speed on a fast track in Atlanta.
From a total yardage perspective, I took a shot on an alt. 90+ yards (+350). Not only has he hit that mark in each of his past two meetings against the Irish, but there's also a potential incentive this time around. With 95 receiving yards, Egbuka would become Ohio State's all-time leading receiver in his final game.
While the Buckeyes won't be worried about that during the game, there's a chance if he's close to the mark late with a comfortable lead, they give him an extra look or two.
Regardless, I do think he'll have the opportunity to hit on a few explosive plays.
- Egbuka 90+ Receiving Yards
- Egbuka Over 4.5 Receptions
- Egbuka Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards
Opportunities for Aneyas Williams
On the Notre Dame side, I like Aneyus Williams over 24.5 receiving yards.
As I mentioned above, it's hard for me to envision how Notre Dame will consistently move the ball.
I don't think it will have much success on the ground, which will lead to it being in many known passing situations where Leonard may be under constant pressure, causing quite a few checkdowns to Williams, who has played 69 snaps in the College Football Playoff. In those three games, he has 11 catches for 86 yards on 12 targets (31 routes).
I expect Notre Dame to be in a trailing game state, leading to even more pass attempts for Leonard.
I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a few holding calls with this crew and the pass-rushing edge for the Buckeyes, which would force even more passing situations.
Plus, we just saw Texas have a ton of success throwing to their backs, with Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner combining for 11 receptions for 101 yards and two touchdowns.
Don't be surprised if Williams clears this on one big wheel route or even a well-timed screen.
- Williams Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
