The Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2, 7-2 Big Ten) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) meet in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday, Jan. 20.
Ohio State enters as a big favorite of -8.5, but Action Network's Mike Calabrese has a different way of attacking the Buckeyes in the national title game.
Continue reading for his full strategy and bets for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame on Monday, Jan. 20.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -355 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +280 |
Dating back to the first BCS National Championship game in January 1999, an alternate line ladder strategy has paid out handsomely.
In the interest of clarity, let’s assume that when bettors sided with the favorite and handed out an extra touchdown ATS, they were rewarded with a +195 payout on their money.
How many times did that cash in the past 26 national championship games? Here’s the list:
- 1999: Florida State 46 – Virginia Tech 29
- 2001: Miami (FL) 37 – Nebraska 14
- 2004: USC 55 – Oklahoma 19
- 2007: LSU 38 – Ohio State 24
- 2009: Alabama 37 – Texas 21
- 2011: Alabama 21 – LSU 0
- 2012: Alabama 42 – Notre Dame 14
- 2019: LSU 42 – Clemson 25
- 2020: Alabama 52 – Ohio State 24
- 2021: Georgia 33 – Alabama 18
- 2022: Georgia 65 – TCU 7
- 2023: Michigan 34 – Washington 13
That’s a 46% hit rate on the alternate line of a touchdown. A blind play of this alternate bet has netted bettors +9.4 units across the past 26 title games.
The ladder strategy I’m advocating for in the game between Notre Dame and Ohio State requires 2.5 units to play (odds via DraftKings):
- Ohio State -8.5 (-105) at 1 unit
- Ohio State -13.5 (+147) at .75 units
- Ohio State -16.5 (+203) at .5 units
- Ohio State -20.5 (+306) at .25 units
Why the love for a Scarlet and Gray blowout? I’m simply trailing the trends in both the title game and in Ryan Day’s work against ranked opponents this season.
Ohio State has faced six ranked opponents this season, posting a matching record of 5-1 SU and ATS. In four of those five wins, it's also covered the alternate line of an extra touchdown (+195).
There are two obvious game scripts that I believe could unfold in this title showdown.
Notre Dame can absolutely win this game if it avoids digging itself a two-score hole. If they keep things close or play with a lead, the threat of the run game — and specifically the quarterback run game — can effectively allow the Irish to play keep-away.
This will increase the importance of each possession and provide their elite defense with an opportunity to win this game with takeaways.
Al Golden’s defense leads the nations in takeaways (32), and in their last 13 games, Notre Dame is 11-0-2 in the turnover battle. The Irish’s last loss came to Northern Illinois, a game in which they were -2 in the TO department.
If they don’t win the turnover battle and are forced to play from behind and put the ball in orbit more than they’re comfortable doing, well, that could spell disaster against the Silver Bullets.
Ohio State's defense ranks second in Passing Success Rate allowed, 18th in Havoc, fourth in big play prevention and second in Quality Drives allowed.
Pressing against this defense through the air has proven disastrous for teams like Indiana, Oregon and Texas.
Indiana finished first in Passing Success Rate, Oregon ninth and Texas 34th. Kurtis Rourke, Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers combined to complete 61% of their passes against Ohio State in recent games but averaged just 216 yards through the air with three turnovers compared to just four touchdowns.
Ohio State won those games and covered by an extra touchdown in each spot. Those opponents were prepared to throw and had perimeter weapons to bring the fight to Ohio State.
Notre Dame doesn’t possess the downfield sophistication or weaponry to beat Ohio State in obvious passing situations. This is why I believe things will snowball if Ohio State can build an early lead.
During Ohio State’s playoff run, the Buckeyes have come out swinging on its opening three drives. On those nine drives, across the Tennessee, Oregon and Texas games, the Buckeyes have scored six touchdowns.
If they find similar success early against ND, I’ll be thrilled to be holding these alternate tickets.
Pick: Ohio State -8.5 (-105 · 1 unit) · Ohio State -13.5 (+147 · 0.75 units) · Ohio State -16.5 (+203 · 0.5 units) · Ohio State -20.5 (+306 · 0.25 units)
