Quarterback drama, failing to meet expectations and fans calling for their coach’s job; it just means more in the SEC.
Oklahoma’s first season in its new conference hasn’t been short on headlines, as the 3-1 team benched its highly-touted quarterback Jackson Arnold in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. during its 25-15 loss last week at the hands of Tennessee.
Arnold, who was the anticipated successor to the quarterback throne after veteran Dillon Gabriel’s departure for Oregon, already had six interceptions on the season before Brett Venables pulled the plug.
The quarterback carousel has been busy on the Plains as well, with Auburn (2-2) making the move last week to return to its incumbent starter Payton Thorne following the 1.5-game Hank Brown experiment that failed to bear any fruit.
These two teams go head-to-head at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+ on Saturday. The Sooners are favored by two points on the spread and are -130 on the moneyline. Also, the total checks in at 45.
With both programs in need of a jumpstart to turn sour moods sweet, will either offense finally hit its stride? Here's my Oklahoma vs. Auburn predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Odds, Prediction
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 +100o / -120u | +100 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 +100o / -120u | -120 |
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn spread: Auburn -1.5
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn over/under: 44 points
- Oklahoma vs. Auburn moneyline: Auburn -120
- Auburn vs. Oklahoma pick: Oklahoma +1.5
My Oklahoma vs Auburn best bet is on Sooners spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Betting Preview
Oklahoma Football
Oklahoma wasn’t expected to compete for a College Football Playoff berth in its first season in the SEC, but things have been much more challenging than expected, just one game into its conference slate.
While the Sooners only recorded their first loss of the season last week against the Volunteers, two of their first three wins were far from smooth sailing.
Oklahoma scored all of 16 points in a four-point win over Houston, the worst team in the Big 12. It then followed up that performance with a 34-19 win against Tulane in a matchup that was much closer than the score depicts.
If the quarterback switch and 16-point outing against Houston weren’t apparent enough, the Oklahoma offense has been the Achilles’ heel of the team.
With former offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby off to Mississippi State, the Sooners' offense ranks just 116th and 124th in run and pass success rate, respectively.
Oklahoma is the only offense in the SEC averaging fewer than 300 yards per game, necessitating the change to Hawkins as it searches for a spark.
Hawkins played decently well given the short-notice circumstances against Tennessee, completing 11-of-18 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown, and he brings a rushing dynamic that doesn't exist with Arnold.
Even with the struggles on offense, Oklahoma has managed to pick up three wins so far thanks to its strong defense. Venables was expected to bring his defensive prowess from Clemson, and he’s held up that end of the bargain.
The Sooners' defense is fifth in run success rate and held Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava to fewer than 200 passing yards and just a lone score.
The secondary hasn’t been as strong as the front seven, but Auburn’s passing game isn’t exactly one that strikes fear in most opponents.
Auburn Football
Death, taxes, drama on the Plains.
It took all of four weeks for the pitchforks to find their ways back to the Auburn campus, inspired by the way head coach Hugh Freeze has handled the Tigers' quarterback situation.
The quarterback conundrum was compounded even further with a 14-point, five-turnover outing at home against Arkansas last week.
While Brown earned his second career start against the Razorbacks, his third start is indefinitely on hold as Freeze has made the move to return to Thorne.
Neither quarterback is going to make your socks go up and down, but the Tigers' passing attack actually hasn’t been that poor, at least by Auburn standards.
The Tigers made some clear upgrades at the receiver position this offseason and are actually fourth in the SEC with 284.0 passing yards per game.
The ground game, led by Jarquez Hunter, continues to be the Auburn offense’s bread and butter. The Tigers rank third and sixth, respectively, in run success rate and line yards, and they lead all SEC teams with 6.25 yards per carry.
Auburn has yet to play any real dynamic offenses, but its defense hasn’t been the main reason for either of its two losses.
The weakest part of the Auburn defense is its secondary, where the Tigers rank 63rd in pass success rate.
Auburn has been the victim of some huge home-run passing plays, leading the SEC in most passing plays allowed of 40 and 50 yards in length.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Auburn match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 116 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 124 | 63 | |
| Havoc | 107 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 121 | 31 | |
Auburn Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 5 |  |
| Line Yards | 6 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 18 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 16 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 105 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (15) | 23.2 (9) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (88) | 50% (98) |
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Prediction
So, which team made the better quarterback decision? Does it even matter?
Auburn’s strength is running the ball, and we have a track record of the quarterback it’s turning too — which isn’t exactly great.
Oklahoma’s strength is stopping the run, and the upside on Hawkins remains unknown, for both us and the Auburn defense.
While there’s so much unknown surrounding the talent of Hawkins, the line on this game doesn’t feel like it values Oklahoma’s defense enough against a mediocre Auburn offense.
The Sooners wouldn’t have made this quarterback move — which effectively guarantees Arnold will hit the transfer portal — if they didn’t have confidence in Hawkins.
I’ll match that sentiment and back the Sooners.
Pick: Oklahoma +1.5 (Play to -2.5)
How to Watch Auburn vs. Oklahoma
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
College Football Betting Trends for Oklahoma vs Auburn
- 78% of the bets and 87% of the money is on the Sooners to cover the spread against the Tigers.
- 73% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the over.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Weather
