The Oklahoma Sooners (6-6, 2-6 SEC) take on the Navy Midshipmen (9-3, 7-2 AAC) in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
When you’re cited as a really bad loss for a team vying for the College Football Playoff, you probably didn’t have a great season.
While Oklahoma somehow managed to beat Alabama by 3 touchdowns to keep the Crimson Tide out of the CFP, its season has been one to forget. Major help is on the way come 2025, but before they can get there, the portal-depleted Sooners have to fend off a 9-win Navy team.
Navy was arguably at one point in pole position to be the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff representative before a 51-14 midseason loss to Notre Dame caused the Midshipmen to rapidly take on water, losing 3 games in 4 weeks.
Oklahoma’s offense will look much different than the unit that suited up during the regular season, yet the Sooners are still -2.5 favorites with the over/under set at 43.5. Do they still have enough of a talent edge to cover the spread?
Let's take a look at my Oklahoma vs. Navy predictions and college football picks for Friday, Dec. 27.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Picks
- Oklahoma vs. Navy Pick: Navy +3
My Navy vs. Oklahoma best bet is on the Midshipmen to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma vs. Navy Odds, Spread, Lines
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- Oklahoma vs. Navy Spread: Oklahoma -1.5 · Navy +1.5
- Oklahoma vs. Navy Over/Under: 43
- Oklahoma vs. Navy Moneyline: Oklahoma ML -120 · Navy ML +100
Oklahoma vs. Navy Armed Forces Bowl Betting Preview
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Full of Key Absences
Welcome to the SEC!
There was no house-warming gift for the Sooners in their first season in the conference where football just means more, as Oklahoma stumbled to a 2-6 league record with a quarterback dilemma to boot.
The Sooners have only finished a season below .500 once this millennium — Brett Venables’ first season — so the third-year coach will hope to avoid making that a trend.
Venables’ team, however, is far from full strength. There’s a litany of absences on the offense, including tight end Bauer Sharp, the team’s leading receiver. Six more receivers will miss the game due to the transfer portal or injuries, as will Oklahoma’s leading rusher Jovantae Barnes.
All of this fails to mention Oklahoma will also be without starting quarterback Jackson Arnold. That means the Sooners will have to rely upon Michael Hawkins at the quarterback position.
While Hawkins will have mostly inexperienced receivers to pass to, the freshman quarterback is an effective rusher.
One big boost for the Sooners could be the presence of Deion Burks. The receiver has missed much of the season with an injury, but he is active for this game and has expressed his desire to play.
The Oklahoma defense is not without its own missing pieces — notably Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman — but the entire starting defensive line that helped Oklahoma rank fourth in Rush Success Allowed is expected to play.
Several weeks of bowl preparation will also help to neutralize some of Navy’s quasi-triple-option advantage that can be a headache for opposing defenses to prepare for.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Explosive Offense, Weak Defense
It didn’t take long for head coach Brian Newberry to right the ship. In just his second season at the helm, Newberry has Navy a victory away from its first 10-win season since 2019.
And unlike Oklahoma, the Navy starting lineup should be fully intact — one of the few positives of being a service academy. Quarterback Blake Horvath, who battled through injury late in the season, returned for the Midshipmen’s season finale against Army and rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns.
Navy’s hybrid triple-option Wing-T attack finished sixth in the nation in rushing with 249.3 yards per game and scored at least three rushing touchdowns in seven games this season.
Explosive plays have been the bread and butter of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic’s bunch. The Midshipmen’s 17 rush plays of at least 30 yards in length are the most nationally among teams that have played 12 or fewer games.
The Navy defense, however, has struggled to stop the run. The Midshipmen rank 100th or worse in Rush Success allowed and Line Yards allowed.
Navy vs. Oklahoma Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Oklahoma match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs. Navy Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 34 | |
Navy Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 28 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 25 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 27 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 77 | 30 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 119 |
| Middle 8 | 63 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (45) | 30.0 (124) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (44) | 76% (3) |
How to Bet My Oklahoma vs. Navy Pick
There are a ton of things going against Oklahoma in this one. The Sooners’ receiving corps has been ravaged by the transfer portal and injuries, their starting quarterback is gone, and there is an obvious question about motivation to finish out a lackluster season.
Navy, on the other hand, has a fully intact roster and should be juiced to try and win 10 games this season. The line has really been steamed down from where it opened at Navy +9.5, but I still think there's some value with the Midshipmen.
Uncertainty is the word of the day for the Oklahoma offense. Michael Hawkins has experience, but who is he throwing to? There's just too much unknown for the Sooners, including whether or not they actually want to be there. Oklahoma will still have the talent edge, but Navy should have enough success on the ground to keep this game close enough.
Pick: Navy +3
Oklahoma vs. Navy Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Start Time, Location
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 27 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Oklahoma takes on Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth on Friday, Dec. 27 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oklahoma vs. Navy Betting Trends
- 61% of bets and 43% of the money are on Oklahoma to cover the spread
- 76% of bets and 56% of the money on the moneyline are on Oklahoma to win outright
- 68% of bets and 68% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Oklahoma vs. Navy Weather
