TCU vs. Oklahoma Odds & Pick: Expect Horned Frogs And Sooners to Light Up Scoreboard (Saturday, Oct. 24)

TCU vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds

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Oklahoma and TCU head into this matchup after two disappointing starts to the 2020 season. After appearing in the College Football Playoff in four of the past five seasons, Oklahoma enters this game with two losses already under its belt. TCU enters sitting at 1-2, with those two losses coming by a combined 10 points.

In 2019, TCU held Oklahoma to 28 points, which was its lowest offensive output of the regular season. However, TCU has had trouble defending explosive plays so far in 2020.

Can the Horned Frogs limit the explosive Oklahoma offense again, or will the Sooners be able to find the end zone with regularity?

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma has yet to win a conference game in regulation this year, with its only win coming against Texas in overtime. The Sooners like to play with some pace and currently rank eighth in plays per game this season. This has been impacted by the four-overtime game against the Longhorns in which it ran 97 plays, but removing that from the data still has the Sooners in the top 25.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler has had no problem moving the ball, but he absolutely needs to cut back on the turnovers. He has thrown five interceptions in three conference games. If he can improve that part of his game with more experience under his belt, this offense could really take off.

The Sooners' pass offense ranks ninth in Success Rate and 13th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass attempt. Rattler also ranks 14th in yards per attempt. As a whole, the offense ranks 16th in Success rate and can successfully finish drives, ranking 21st in points per trip past the opponents' 40-yard line.

There are several different ways to track explosiveness, and the way I do it is by looking at the percentage of plays that gain at least 20 yards. In that metric, Oklahoma ranks 15th.

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On defense, the Sooners have probably played better than the public thinks. It ranks 31st out of 77 teams in Success Rate Allowed against FBS opponents, but like Oklahoma defenses we have seen in the past, it has problems limiting explosive plays.

The Sooners allow 20-plus yard gains on 8.3% of opponent plays, which ranks as the 14th-most in the country. Oklahoma also has problems in its own territory, allowing the 19th-most points to opponents after crossing its's 40-yard line.

Additionally, the offense's tendency to turn the ball over has put the Oklahoma defense in tough positions. The average starting field position for Sooner opponents is 68.1 yards from the end zone, which is 16th-worst in the country. Overall, the Sooners' defense ranks 48th out of 77 in EPA against FBS opponents.

TCU Horned Frogs

Like Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs play at a fast pace. TCU ranks one spot behind Oklahoma in plays per game at ninth. Its offense got off to a rough start at the beginning of the season against Iowa State, as quarterback Max Duggan dealt with a heart issue.

However, he was inserted into the game and ended up throwing for 12.7 yards per attempt and three touchdown passes. Duggan now ranks 28th in yards per attempt on the season. As a whole, the TCU offense ranks 33rd in Success Rate.

TCU is usually known for its defense, but that unit has not performed as well as many would expect in 2020. The Horned Frogs allow the 15th-most 20-yard gains per play and rank 40th in EPA.

The defensive line has struggled to get pressure, ranking 50th in Sack Rate. Rattler has had a lot of trouble dealing with pressure so far this season, and I'm not convinced TCU will find a way to take advantage of that.

The Horned Frogs have not been good in their own territory. The defense ranks 50th in points allowed past its own 40-yard line.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This total is the number I'm currently furthest from the market on. I was surprised to see this open at 63.5 and see books take money on the under.

I project Oklahoma at 35.7 points and TCU with 30.8 for a total of 66.5. This is largely due to a projection of 158 plays, which is about 13 more than the FBS average.

Additionally, each team's inability to defend explosive plays factors into this projection that differs significantly from the market. The market resistance does have me second-guessing myself to a degree, but I would feel confident playing this over at any number under 60.

Pick: Over 59

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