The No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) host the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) to open SEC play at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Volunteers enter this SEC showdown as -7 favorites after opening at -3.5 earlier in the week. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 57.5 after opening as high as 61.5.
So, where does the betting value lie in this prime-time marquee matchup between the Sooners and Volunteers? Let's take a look at our Oklahoma vs. Tennessee picks and predictions for college football Week 4.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -267 |
By Dan Keegan
The Oklahoma Sooners host their former quarterback Josh Heupel and his Tennessee Volunteers in a matchup of two storied programs.
This game is rich with storylines.
For Oklahoma, this is its first conference game as a member of the SEC. The Sooners spent almost a century dominating all of the various iterations of the Big 8 and Big 12 but have decided to ramp up the difficulty level one setting.
Their coffers are now even more stuffed — almost as loaded as their schedule is with top-tier opponents like this.
For Tennessee, this is a chance for the team to show its white-hot start against overmatched opponents is no fluke. The Volunteers have been helium in the AP Poll, soaring to No. 6 faster than their lightning-quick offense.
For Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables, this is a chance for a major win in his third season. He needs to show that his team is ready to compete in the biggest, baddest league in the country.
For Heupel, this is more personal. He was a superstar quarterback in Norman, hoisting the National Championship trophy in 2000 in Oklahoma’s last trip to the mountaintop. Yet, the Sooners canned him from his role as offensive coordinator a decade ago.
He has a chance to show his alma mater what it lost out on. And I don’t know if you have watched a Heupel team against an overmatched opponent, but he doesn't seem like the forgiving type.
For youthful quarterbacks Jackson Arnold of Oklahoma and Nico Iamaleava of Tennessee, this is a huge opportunity with all eyes to show why you belong — to show that the hype around your early play is deserved.
The table is set. The matchup couldn’t be more intriguing. Which means for you, the bettor, it’s a chance to cash a ticket.
We polled our staff of 16 college football experts to find consensus amongst the brain trust on both the side and the total.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Spread
Split Decision on Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Spread
There will be no easing into the SEC schedule for the No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners, as they host the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers.
Our staff is evenly split on the spread bet for this game which features a stout Oklahoma defense against a complete Tennessee team.
Given the even split between our experts, we don’t have a formal recommendation for this game — but we do have some storylines to watch that could result in betting opportunities.
Seven of our experts think the Brent Venables-led Oklahoma defense will do enough to slow down the Josh Heupel-led Volunteers offense and keep this within a one-score game.
Much of this is predicated upon Norman being a difficult environment for the opposing team, but all signs confirm what Vegas is telling us — Tennessee is the superior team.
The potential of a closely contested game resonates with the staff; however, we would be remiss if we didn’t mention standout quarterback Nico Iamaleava for Tennessee.
Iamaleava leads a Volunteer offense that has outscored opponents, 191-13, this season.
Individually, Iamaleava hasn’t missed a step since taking over as the starter this season, boasting a QBR of 182.73 (12th) while passing for 232.7 yards per game with six touchdowns.
The dynamism of Tennessee doesn’t stop on the offensive side of the ball. The Vols are one of the best defenses in the nation at this point of the season, too. Through three games, they've allowed just 160.7 yards and 4.3 points per game.
Lastly, this is a homecoming of sorts — or maybe a revenge tour — for Tennessee’s Heupel. This will be the first time Heupel has returned to Norman as a coach after winning a national title as the starting quarterback and subsequently getting fired as the OC at the conclusion of the 2014 season.
All signs point to this market being fairly priced, but we do think this game could present some valuable entry points in the live betting markets.
As a collective, we think Tennessee is the better team and Heupel will play up his Norman ties. However, we'd prefer to wait for the line to move to -3 or better for the Volunteers.
Alternatively, live moneyline bets at -150 or better would offer strong risk-adjusted returns.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Over/Under
Over 57.5 | 8 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 57.5 | 7 Picks |
Split Decision on Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Total
Our staff of college football experts came away from analyzing this SEC showdown almost evenly split on how to bet the total, and as result, we don’t have a formal pre-kickoff recommendation — although we do lean slightly toward the over.
Even though we view the market as fairly priced for this game, we feel any swings outside of a 10-point band within the first quarter can provide excellent entry points for either the over or the under.
Should a couple of quick scores take place and the total pops to 67.5 or higher, an under bet would be warranted.
Conversely, if the first quarter drags in terms of scoring activity and the total drops to 47.5 or lower, we’d recommend jumping on the over.
The case for the under in his game — and generally what we view as the base case here — is that defense should be the prevailing factor in this contest.
At this point in the season, defense is the strength of Oklahoma as it looks for consistency offensively. While we can’t say the Tennessee defense is its sole strength, the more complete Volunteers are happy to let their defense complement its potent offense.
In terms of the over, should Tennessee and, to a lesser extent, Oklahoma stumble out of the gates, we’d feel very comfortable betting the live over around 47.5 based on the Nico Iamaleava-led Tennessee offense alone.
Iamaleava is a Heisman frontrunner and leads the highest-scoring offense (63.5 PPG) in the nation.
While we came away from our analysis with a pass on pre-kick bets, our staff thinks this SEC opener has plenty of room to fluctuate and can present attractive entry points on either side of the total for bettors looking for live action.
We recommend passing on pre-kickoff total bets and prefer live betting the over at 47.5 or better or taking a live under at 67.5 or better sometime in the first quarter.
