Oklahoma vs West Virginia Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 68.5 -106o / -114u | -315 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 68.5 -106o / -114u | +250 |
This weekend the Oklahoma Sooners will travel to Morgantown to take on their conference foes, the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Since joining the Big 12, the Mountaineers have not taken down the Sooners and have lost the last nine meetings.
This season’s Oklahoma team is a bit different from the recent powerhouse Sooners teams. Oklahoma sits at 5-4 with a conference record of 2-4. This team no longer reigns over the Big 12 like it has for years, and this could end up being the time that the Mountaineers finally beat them.
Neither team has much to play for at this point in the season.
Oklahoma is one win away from bowl eligibility while West Virginia will need to win the rest of its games in order to get to 6-6. As of right now, WVU sits tied for last place in the Big 12 in what has been a disappointing season.
Oklahoma Sooners
Sooners Offense
Since being embarrassed by Texas, Oklahoma has seemingly figured some things out on offense. On the season, Oklahoma ranks 38th in Success Rate and has the eighth-best offense in the nation, according to SP+.
The Sooners primarily rely on their running game as they run at the 31st-highest rate in FBS. On these rushes, they rank 38th in Success Rate, 32nd in PPA and 30th in Explosiveness. By PFF Run Grades, this is the 22nd-best rushing offense in the country.
Through the air, the Sooners have not quite been as dynamic as they were under Lincoln Riley. They rank 53rd in Passing Success Rate and 47th in PPA. Oklahoma also ranks just 68th in Passing Explosiveness, which is a departure from its typical norm.
Facing off against a West Virginia defense that has been one of the bottom units in the Power Five, I would expect Oklahoma to have a strong showing on offense this weekend.
Sooners Defense
New head coach Brent Venables emerged as one of the best defensive coordinators in the country at Clemson. Many believed that his arrival in Norman would dramatically improve the Sooners defense, but that has not happened yet.
The Sooners rank 58th on defense in SP+ and are 88th in Success Rate. A significant issue has been allowing opponents to Finish Drives as they rank 109th in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
Oklahoma has struggled against both the pass and the run this season. They rank 92nd against the run and 93rd in Success Rate against the pass. They are a dismal 112th in Rushing PPA allowed and 112th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
West Virginia doesn’t have an overly explosive offense, but its ability to move the ball will likely cause problems for this Oklahoma defense.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Mountaineers Offense
With transfer quarterback J.T. Daniels and new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell at the helm, this West Virginia offense has been solid and has improved as the year has progressed.
The Mountaineers rank 40th in Offensive Success Rate and have the 34th-best offense according to SP+.
The Mountaineers tend to lean more on their passing game as they throw at the 35th-highest rate in the country.
When passing the ball, the Mountaineers rank 37th in Passing Success Rate but only 67th in PPA. This is because they have not consistently generated explosive plays with their passing game as they rank 108th in Passing Explosiveness.
The Mountaineers rank 41st in Rushing Success Rate and 31st in PPA. They struggle slightly with Explosiveness as well, ranking 60th, but these issues haven’t been nearly as pronounced as the ones in the passing game.
Mountaineers Defense
Defense has been the undoing of this Mountaineers team this season.
West Virginia’s defense is ranked 95th by SP+ and sits 94th in Offensive Success Rate Allowed. The main issues on this defense have been their low Havoc Rate and the high rate of Explosive Plays they have allowed as they rank 117th in FBS in both of these metrics.
West Virginia has fared okay on the ground this season compared to its passing defense. The Mountaineers rank 67th in Success Rate and 78th in PPA. Explosive Plays have been an issue against both the run and the pass as they are 102nd in Explosive Play Rate in both facets.
When facing the pass, West Virginia ranks 102nd in Success Rate and 115th in PPA. The defense's 49.9 PFF Coverage Grade ranks 126th in the country and is third-worst among Power Five schools.
This Oklahoma passing attack isn’t quite what it used to be, but Dillon Gabriel is good enough to take advantage of this poor passing defense while the Oklahoma rushing offense should also have a strong day.
Oklahoma vs West Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and West Virginia match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 76 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 102 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 91 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 102 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 92 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 3 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 109 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 14 |
| PFF Coverage | 98 | 127 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 7 | 42 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.3 (6) | 25.7 (50) |
| Rush Rate | 59.6% (24) | 48.2% (97) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oklahoma vs West Virginia Betting Pick
Despite their struggles on offense this season, this is a good spot for the Sooners to get back on track.
West Virginia’s defense is terrible and should allow Oklahoma to open up its offense more. The Mountaineers offense should move the ball, but their inability to generate explosive plays will end up being their undoing in this one.
If a -7 ever popped up in the market, I would take that immediately. But I do like Oklahoma at the current number of -7.5 and would take this up to -9.5.
Pick: Oklahoma -7.5 ⋅ Play to -9.5 |
