The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-4) and the Baylor Bears (3-4) are set to face off at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, this Saturday afternoon. This game will be broadcasted on ESPN+ at 3:30 p.m. ET as these two Big 12 teams battle for potential bowl eligibility.
It has been a disappointing season for both of these squads, but Baylor was able to pick up a big win last weekend, while Oklahoma State once again fell short.
The Bears are 6.5-point favorites in this matchup, with an over/under of 64.5 total points.
Without further ado, let’s dive into my Oklahoma State vs Baylor predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Odds, Lines, Pick
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 63.5 -112 / -108 | +205 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 63.5 -112 / -108 | -250 |
- Oklahoma State vs Baylor spread: Baylor -6.5
- Oklahoma State vs Baylor over/under: 63.5 points
- Oklahoma State vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -250
- Oklahoma State vs Baylor pick: Over 65
My Oklahoma State vs Baylor best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Betting Preview
Oklahoma State Football
Oklahoma State was viewed as a Big 12 contender at the start of the season, but they are now 3-4 overall and without a conference win. Ollie Gordon and their rushing game were able to get going last week before they lost a heartbreaker on the road to BYU.
After being such an effective rushing team in 2023, Oklahoma State ranks just 114th in Rush Success Rate and 77th in EPA Per Rush to this point in the season.
Ollie Gordon has been held to just 491 yards and six touchdowns this season after putting up 1,732 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns a season ago. His yards per rush attempt has decreased from 6.1 to just 4.2 this year as well. The offensive line has been partly to blame for this, ranking 88th in PFF’s Run Blocking grades.
This offensive line has been much better in the passing game, as they rank 2nd in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades. The Cowboys are 56th in Pass Success Rate and 52nd in EPA Per Pass this season.
Veteran quarterback Alan Bowman is averaging 0.11 EPA per drop back with 1,424 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on the season. Bowman has been benched on multiple occasions this season, including last week when Garret Rangel got the start.
Unfortunately Rangel broke his collarbone and will be out for the season, along with redshirt freshman Zane Flores, who also suffered a serious injury, so the Cowboys will be turning back to Bowman.
OSU’s defense has been a mess this season, particularly against the run. They rank 96th in Success Rate allowed and 109th in EPA Per Play allowed. On the ground they rank 104th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 122nd in EPA Per Rush allowed, 125th in PFF’s Tackling grade, and 129th in PFF’s Run Defense grades.
The pass defense has been a bit better, ranking 63rd in Pass Success Rate allowed and 75th in EPA Per Pass allowed. They are 85th in PFF Pass Rush Grade and 99th in PFF Coverage grade so while they are better than the run defense, this is still not a good defense overall.
Baylor Football
Baylor is 3-4 on the season now, but the vibes are much different than they were in Stillwater after the Bears picked up their first conference win of the season last weekend in a blowout road win over Texas Tech.
As I pointed out heading into last week’s game, Baylor’s offense was being undervalued due to their change at quarterback. Sawyer Robertson has been an extreme upgrade over Dequan Finn under center and has made a ton of difference to this team since taking over.
Looking at full-season numbers, Baylor ranks 62nd in Pass Success Rate and 53rd in EPA Per Pass at 0.08, but Robertson is averaging 0.19 EPA Per Dropback on his own, which has lifted their offensive ceiling.
This hasn’t been a great rushing attack, ranking 101st in both Rush Success Rate and EPA Per Rush. Baylor has a balanced approach in terms of play-calling, and may benefit in this matchup from Oklahoma State’s defense being poor overall.
Baylor’s defense has been stout this year, ranking 12th in Success Rate Allowed and 58th in EPA Per Play allowed, as big plays have been an issue. They are 11th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 40th in EPA Per Rush allowed, creating a tough matchup for Ollie Gordon once again.
The passing defense has been a problem for the Bears, as they are 48th in Pass Success Rate allowed but just 90th in EPA Per Pass allowed. They also rank 107th in PFF Coverage grade and 110th in PFF Pass Rushing grade, so I think that they will once again struggle to stop the pass.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Baylor match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 56 |  |
| Havoc | 14 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 86 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 68 | |
Baylor Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 95 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 100 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 125 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 99 | 106 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 71 | 51 |
| Middle 8 | 83 | 69 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.1 (7) | 23.6 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (117) | 53% (60) |
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Prediction
Both of these defenses have some major flaws, and I believe both quarterbacks in this matchup are well-equipped to take advantage of these deficiencies. Similarly to Baylor’s 59-35 win last week or Oklahoma State’s 38-35 loss to BYU, I think that this game could also turn into a shootout.
I think Baylor is the better team in this matchup, and may have more motivation to win this game, but I don’t want to lay seven points with them in this spot, as this line feels a bit too accurate. Instead, I’m looking to play the over in this matchup, which is already at 65 points. I’d take the over all the way up to 67.5.
Pick: Over 65
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Oklahoma State duels Baylor in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Weather
