Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | +102 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | -122 |
Oklahoma State looks to finish its gauntlet of an October schedule on a high note as it heads to Manhattan to face a Kansas State team chasing a similar dream.
The Cowboys will play their fifth game of October on Saturday, boasting an impressive 3-1 record against the Big 12's top teams with their only loss coming at the hands of undefeated TCU.
Kansas State, meanwhile, enjoyed a bye week before suffering the same fate against the Horned Frogs.
The Wildcats are now looking to bounce back at home, which may be easier said than done against one of the most experienced teams in the conference and injury concerns to boot.
So far, both teams are 3-1 in conference play and hoping to find their way back to a rematch against TCU in the Big 12 Championship. Neither faces a particularly favorable schedule the rest of the way, but a win here would separate one as the clear second-place team in the conference.
Will the previous rest be enough for Kansas State to get the job done at home?
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Senior quarterback Spencer Sanders has the Cowboys back among the best in the nation regarding offense production. The Pokes rank fourth in the country when it comes to points per game, averaging 44.7 points per contest.
And while Sanders may lead the conference in passing yards and yards per game, no quarterback has been worse in terms of completion percentage. He's thrown only four interceptions on the season despite his inaccuracy, but I'm not sure how much longer that will hold up.
The Pokes defense appears to have the edge over the Wildcats on paper, as they rank 42nd in Defensive Success Rate and 22nd in Standard Down EPA/Play Allowed.
But there are some concerns for Oklahoma State that can't be ignored.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, their passing defense — their biggest weakness that ranks 127th out of 131 teams — shouldn't come into play very often against a Wildcats offense that rushes the ball on 63.3% of plays.
Kansas State Wildcats
Only 10 teams in the country run the ball more than the Wildcats, and that number could be even lower after this week.
Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez, who has had a comeback season in his fifth year after transferring from Nebraska, is currently questionable for the Oklahoma State game with an injury.
That leaves the door open for backup Will Howard, who performed decently against TCU, posting 225 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 65% completion rate.
Losing the starting quarterback is never ideal, but it becomes far less problematic when that team has one of the nation's best rushers in the backfield.
Deuce Vaughn ranks second in the Big 12 with 744 yards and four scores on the ground while adding 112 yards on 19 receptions through the air.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats are more than equipped to face the second-best passing offense in the Big 12. Kansas State ranks third in the conference in passing defense, holding opponents to only 230 yards per game and a completion percentage of just 55.9%.
They've also pulled down five interceptions so far this season.
The Cats' red-zone defense has been an issue, as they've allowed opponents to score on 87.5% of trips inside the 20. But the Pokes have been even worse in that area, giving up a score on 88.5% of opportunities.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Kansas State match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 20 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 87 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 13 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas State Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 71 |  |
| Line Yards | 37 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 33 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 96 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 80 | 30 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 15 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 20.9 (4) | 28.0 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 48.8% (94) | 63.3% (11) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Betting Pick
Oklahoma State's loss to TCU came from its inability to stop the run. Last week, Texas also ran the ball at will against the Pokes, but the Cowboys dug deep and pulled off the comeback win.
The Wildcats boast the best rushing offense in the Big 12, averaging 232 yards per game. Moreover, they have the second-best rusher in the conference in Vaughn. Therefore, the status of Martinez at quarterback doesn't concern me much.
Kansas State has seen how successful the run can be against the Pokes, and I expect it to lean heavily into that game plan.
Yes, Sanders is excellent. The Cowboys are an experienced team, but the clock strikes midnight every day, and regression comes for everyone at one point or another.
Kansas State boasts a top-three passing defense in the Big 12, and while its ability to stop the run is lacking, the Pokes' run game averages only 153.7 yards per outing and doesn't present much of a threat.
I would prefer that a missed PAT doesn't decide the outcome of this wager, so I'll be on the Kansas State moneyline as high as -125.
The moneyline bet is also due to the fact that after opening as a 3-point underdog, the Wildcats have moved to as high as a 1.5-point favorite at some books.
Make sure to shop around to get the best number possible, but I would only bet the Wildcats as high as -2.5 (-115).
Pick: Kansas State -1.5 ⋅ Play to -2.5 (-115) |
