Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan could serve as a knockout game in the Big 12 on Saturday as the Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) face the Kansas State Wildcats (3-1, 0-1) with kickoff set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN and streaming on YouTube TV and ESPN+.
Kansas State enters as a consensus 5.5-point home favorite on the spread against Oklahoma State (K. State -5.5), with the over/under sitting at 57.5 as of this morning. K. State is a -215 favorite on the moneyline, with Oklahoma State +175 to pull off the upset.
The Big 12 is set to produce the most electric race to a conference championship of any league in college football, and two of the most popular preseason picks have started 0-1 in conference play.
Oklahoma State hosted Utah in oven-like temperatures in Stillwater in Week 4. However, a defense-dominated game created a comfortable lead in a 22-19 win for the Utes and gave them an advantage in the conference standings. The Wildcats had a similar weekend on the road at BYU, taking a 38-19 loss in the conference opener thanks to a poor showing in scoring position while allowing the Cougars to dominate field position through special teams.
Let's take a look at my Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction
- Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5 or Better
My Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State bet is on the Cowboys to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -5.5
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State over/under: 57.5 points
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Moneyline: Kansas State -215, Oklahoma State +175
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State College Football Week 5
Oklahoma State Football
Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy found success on the Cowboys' second drive against Utah by using tempo. Oklahoma State is the seventh-fastest team in the nation at 21.8 seconds per play.
The drive ended in a field goal before the Pokes went 11 straight possessions without any points. The Oklahoma State offense now sits top-35 in three-and-out rate, ending a possession in three plays on 27% of drives.
The stalled offense called for a benching of quarterback Alan Bowman, as four offensive series went to backup Garret Rangel. Gundy described his quarterback's performance as a snowball effect, from declining throwing mechanics to deteriorating footwork.
The Pokes faithful is ready for 2023 recruit Zane Flores, but Gundy said the Nebraska native "hasn't gotten the number of reps" to take over the position.
There are also struggles in the running game behind college football's oldest offensive line and a former Heisman-contending running back in Ollie Gordon.
The reigning Doak Walker winner is averaging a full yard less after contact, down to 2.7 yards.
Gundy has repeated that teams are loading the box to stop the run game, a factor that has created one-on-one matchups in the passing game with receivers Brennan Presley and De'Zhaun Stribling.
Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo has found success in two key areas: creating Havoc and keeping opponents out of the end zone.
Oklahoma State ranks 27th in Defensive Havoc, powered thanks to the FBS lead in passes defensed.
A top-15 rank in red-zone defense is even more impressive when considering opponent drives that cross the 40-yard line. The Cowboys have allowed 27 opponent drives into the extended red zone but have given up just 1.7 points per trip for a rank of sixth nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Kansas State Football
Kansas State head coach Klieman noted that the battle of explosive plays and turnovers were the downfall of the Wildcats against BYU. The Cats settled for field goals on drives plagued with penalties, a staple of the offense this season with a rank of 78th in Finishing Drives.
There are other concerns around the offense, as quarterback Avery Johnson has yet to find a groove in downfield passing. The sophomore has completed just 3-of-15 passing attempts beyond 20 yards, leading Kansas State to rank of 121st in pass explosives.
The Wildcats have never been a pass-first offense, but Johnson has failed to keep Kansas State from mistakes with just two big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
The strength of the offense is a heavy rushing attack that pivots between power, inside zone and pulling offensive linemen.
Running back DJ Giddens has been fantastic behind an offensive line that ranks top-20 in Line Yards. Kansas State has used a two-back set on 7% of snaps with Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, as both he and Giddens average at least 3.8 yards after first contact.
The issues for the offense start in passing downs, with a Success Rate and EPA number that sits in the bottom half of FBS offenses. Despite the seventh-best national average distance on third-down distance at 5.6 yards to go, the Wildcats are 61st in conversions.
Joe Klanderman's 3-3-5 defense has had success in stopping the run against four opponents so far this season. Kansas State veers to a 6-3-2 personnel in known rushing attempts, an identity that will continue against Oklahoma State's rushing attack.
The Wildcats are top-15 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate but have similar issues to the offense in passing downs.
Kansas State has failed to produce a pass rush nor limit opponent explosive passes. The secondary grades poorly in coverage, per PFF, while Sports Info Solutions has the Wildcats ranking 68th in contested catches allowed.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 48 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 55 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 94 | 15 |
| PFF Coverage | 62 | 84 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 55 |
| Middle 8 | 67 | 124 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.8 (4) | 28.0 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 41% (122) | 60% (35) |
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Pick
Like many quarterbacks facing the Utah defense, Bowman was uncomfortable against the looks he saw from the opposing secondary in Week 4.
The quarterback said the issues started with a Utah secondary that flashed Cover 1, a look that Oklahoma State did not expect or practice against leading up to the loss against Utah. That experience should play out against Kansas State, as Klanderman calls 61% zone coverage with a split tendency to quarters and Cover 1.
Because opposing defenses are loading the box against Gordon, Bowman has had success in play-action passing. The seventh-year quarterback is 31-of-46 in play-action, with 20 of the completions going for a first down.
Klanderman is sure to pivot to a 6-3-2 front with all eyes on Gordon, giving Bowman one-on-one coverage with two of the most explosive receivers in the Big 12.
There may also be other advantages that allow Gordon to get it going on the ground. The Kansas State defense has thrived against outside zone read, but Oklahoma State runs man, power and counter with minimal zone read.
The Cowboys defense has already experienced a mobile quarterback in Week 2 against Arkansas and Taylen Green. Gundy mentioned that losing sight of running lanes for the quarterback has cost the Oklahoma State defense in several games thus far.
Utah backup quarterback Isaac Wilson ripped a 48-yard gain on the ground because of poor tackling angles by the Cowboys defense. That has been the emphasis in practice this week with plenty of tape on Johnson and experience against Green.
Kansas State has consistently struggled in passing downs on both sides of the ball. While the offense has failed to produce any depth in the passing game, opposing teams are eating against the Wildcats' secondary.
Look for Oklahoma State to see massive improvement from a Week 4 loss thanks to Bowman's experience against Cover 1 and a rushing attack that could see a lighter box for the first time this season.
Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5 or Better
How to Watch Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / YouTube TV, ESPN+ |
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State is set to start at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game is airing on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Betting Trends
- 57% of bets and 46% of the money are on Kansas State to cover the spread.
- 59% of bets and 73% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of bets and 86% of the money on the moneyline are on Kansas State to win outright.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Weather
