We've got a matchup of Big 12 teams Saturday night in Fort Worth that have both disappointed to varying degrees in 2024.
There's been no bigger disappointment in the conference than Oklahoma State (3-6, 0-6 Big 12), which returned 20-plus starters from a year ago and had expectations to contend for a Big 12 Championship.
The Pokes have yet to record a conference win and must win this game just to keep bowl eligibility alive.
Meanwhile, TCU (5-4, 3-3) has been way too inconsistent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Last week's loss to Baylor all but eliminated the Horned Frogs from the Big 12 race.
It will be interesting to see the motivation level from both sides in this one — TCU is coming off a loss to its biggest rival but in search of a sixth win, and Oklahoma State is fighting largely for pride at this point.
Read more for my Oklahoma State vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction
- Oklahoma State vs TCU Pick: Oklahoma State +11.5
My Oklahoma State-TCU best bet is on the Cowboys to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | -420 |
- Oklahoma State vs TCU Spread: Oklahoma State +10.5 · TCU -10.5
- Oklahoma State vs TCU Over/Under: 68 Points
- Oklahoma State vs TCU Moneyline: Oklahoma State +320 · TCU -420
Oklahoma State Football vs TCU Football Preview
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: A Defensive Disaster
After the injuries to linebackers Nick Martin and Collin Oliver, I don't think it's hyperbolic to say that Oklahoma State is a bottom-five defense amongst all of the power conferences.
Week after week, the Pokes have been getting absolutely gashed on the ground.
Last week was no different, with Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo running for 153 yards and averaging over 6.5 yards a carry.
The secondary has plenty of issues of its own, which is cause for concern against a TCU team with one of the most prolific passing attacks in the conference.
As disappointing as the defense has been, the lack of explosiveness from the offense has been equally frustrating for Cowboy fans, given how much experience it returned on that side of the ball.
Every starter from the offensive line from last year's 10-win team came back. Ollie Gordon, the 2023 Doak Walker Award winner, came back. Most of the receiving corps returned.
None of it has seemed to matter. A lot of the blame deserves to go on quarterback Alan Bowman, who has regressed in his seventh season of college football. Bowman was limited as is, but his accuracy and command of the offense have both gone down as compared to 2023.
Another issue has been the inability of the offensive line to get much of a push. Gordon hasn't had the same running lanes he had last season and his numbers are way down as a result.
Things have picked up in recent weeks, and there is a chance to have success Saturday against a TCU defense that ranks 100th nationally in line yards.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Can TCU Stay Out of Its Own Way?
Sonny Dykes has had an interesting ride in Fort Worth that has seen a little bit of everything.
There was the incredible 2022 campaign, which took the Frogs all the way to the national title game. There was also last season when TCU failed to win six games.
This year has been better than 2023, but there has still been an element of sloppiness across the board.
QB Josh Hoover has put up some gaudy numbers, but he has also been plagued by turnovers at times in key spots of games.
The trenches, in general, have been a problem, as the Frogs don't have much of a rushing attack and have been hurt on the ground by opposing offenses.
Against Oklahoma State, the way to really hurt the Pokes is by running the ball, but oftentimes Dykes' offenses can become too pass-happy.
There should be paths to success here regardless, but it's fair to worry about a little bit of a hangover effect for the Frogs after losing a heartbreaker last week; and now having to get up for a team currently dead last in the conference.
If TCU plays to its potential, this game doesn't need to be close, but if turnovers and mistakes continue, there's a path for Oklahoma State to make this a four-quarter game.
TCU vs Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. TCU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 100 |  |
| Pass Success | 50 | 40 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 94 | |
TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 102 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 132 | 21 |
| PFF Coverage | 118 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 61 | 122 |
| Middle 8 | 83 | 53 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.7 (10) | 24.7 (20) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (119) | 43% (117) |
How to Bet My Oklahoma State vs TCU Picks
Other than LIU Brooklyn, TCU has not beaten an opponent by more than 11 points all season, and I don't see that changing now, even with the struggles of the Oklahoma State defense.
There are still plenty of playmakers within the Cowboy offense, and they should allow the Pokes to move the ball against a very poor TCU defense.
Yes, Hoover and the Frog offense will create plenty of big plays down the field, but TCU seems to continue to shoot itself in the foot throughout games, which makes it very difficult to create margin.
Brennan Presley is one of the most underrated receivers in the country, and if Bowman can just be somewhat accurate, the senior should be in for a big day against the Horned Frogs secondary.
TCU is rightfully favored to win this game but give me the Pokes to put up enough points to cover this number as a double-digit underdog.
Pick: Oklahoma State +11.5 (Play to 10.5)
Oklahoma State vs TCU Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Start Time
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Oklahoma State takes on TCU in Fort Worth on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
Oklahoma State vs TCU Betting Trends
- 89% of bets and 95% of the money are on Oklahoma State to cover the spread
- 99% of bets and 100% of the money on the moneyline are on TCU to win outright
- 55% of bets and 86% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Oklahoma State vs TCU Weather
