Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas Longhorns Odds
| Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Texas Longhorns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark entered the conference's media days with a message that the conference would be "younger, hipper, cool."
Four new teams joined the conference this season, while Nelly was announced as the conference championship halftime performer.
The introduction of Colorado and a handful of other Pac-12 teams has generated plenty of noise to deter fans from one large factor — Oklahoma and Texas playing their last set of games in the conference.
Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy was furious with the departures, specifically for his home-state rivalry between the Cowboys and Sooners. Those tensions cooled in 2023, as the longtime Pokes coach insisted the Big 12 was in great shape and Oklahoma was headed for turbulent waters.
Saddled with no answers at quarterback and a fresh defensive coordinator from Division II, Gundy can now pull off the dream scenario of beating Oklahoma and Texas in their final seasons in the conference.
The Longhorns will look to secure a conference championship with hopes of making the College Football Playoff. Texas has not won the conference since it beat Nebraska in the 2009 season.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian was tasked with taking over a program that failed to meet expectations under Tom Herman, and he has reshaped a roster and coaching staff to get on the national stage.
With NIL deals in place to lure the best talent in college football, Sarkisian is well on his way to restoring Texas as the premier team in the country. First stop: a Big 12 Championship in the Longhorns' last-ever game within the conference.
It's time to take a look at the Oklahoma State vs. Texas odds and find a Big 12 Championship pick and prediction for Saturday.
Oklahoma State vs Texas Picks
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State survived a musical chairs event of Big 12 teams looking to grab a spot in the conference championship game. With an Iowa State and Kansas State loss, the Cowboys' victory in Bedlam over Oklahoma turned out to be the head-to-head tiebreaker needed for an invitation to Arlington.
However, the Pokes have struggled severely to keep the identity that helped it win five straight in the middle of the schedule. After securing the victory in Bedlam, the Cowboys were blown out at UCF in bad weather.
Despite the struggles, the heroics of running back Ollie Gordon II have become the primary driver of the offense.
What an effort by Ollie Gordon pic.twitter.com/hXfSwQGhHQ
— Derek Duke (@DerekDuke25) November 26, 2023
Oklahoma State prefers the use of man-blocking schemes with counter for Gordon, but the rate of EPA lowers when the offense can't stay on schedule.
The Pokes fall to 119th in explosives in passing downs, relying on journeyman Alan Bowman under center. Bowman failed to throw a touchdown in three of the Pokes' final four games, leaving the scoring duties to Gordon and the rushing attack.
The defense has also experienced struggles down the stretch, primarily against the pass. Oklahoma State ends the regular season outside the top 100 in explosives allowed, specifically ranking 111th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Opponents have done most of their damage in early downs, as the Cowboys are 130th in allowing explosives in standard downs.
Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo has maintained the 3-3-5 personnel from his predecessors in Stillwater, but the Pokes have consistent issues with teams that run inside zone.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are on fire coming down the stretch, not only winning six straight but also scoring 57 points in the final regular-season game against Texas Tech.
Injuries were a concern toward the end of the season, as the Longhorns struggled a bit in victories over Kansas State and TCU. Running back Jonathan Brooks was injured against TCU, ending his 2023 season after 10 rushing touchdowns.
Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers also missed a pair of games but returned for the final trio of contests, posting four touchdowns to two interceptions.
The explosiveness of running back Jaydon Blue was the biggest revelation in the team's victory over the Red Raiders.
Jaydon Blue goes 69-yards (nice) to the crib!
Really impressive burst of speed and a much needed response. pic.twitter.com/9AcvfrI5NA
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) November 25, 2023
Texas continues to be one of the best methodical offenses in the nation, ranking sixth nationally in Quality Drives.
There have been consistent issues for the Longhorns in scoring position, averaging just 3.7 points per drive that extends beyond the 40-yard line. Despite the 57 points it put up on Texas Tech, Texas averaged just three points per scoring opportunity.
The biggest advantage Texas has in any college football game head-to-head is its defensive front. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has posted top-10 rankings in nearly every rush metric from Line Yards to Stuff Rate.
The aggressiveness of the 4-2-5 scheme carries over with opponent passing attempts, as the Horns are 11th in pass rush, per PFF. No offensive line in college football has been able to stop the defensive interior combination of T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II.
Oklahoma State vs Texas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and Texas match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs Texas Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 20 | |
Texas Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 51 |  |
| Pass Success | 25 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 100 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 44 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 83 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7.4 | 8.9 |
| Middle 8 | 56 | 45 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.7 (20) | 26.5 (57) |
| Rush Rate | 45.5% (113) | 54.4% (67) |
Oklahoma State vs Texas
Betting Pick & Prediction
Yormark wants the Big 12 Championship game to be the premier event in college football, bringing musical acts and a "younger, hipper" vibe to the game. The issue is the matchup between two teams with a point spread over two touchdowns during an 11 a.m. local kickoff.
Oklahoma State has received nothing from Bowman and the passing attack, so Texas should be able to load the box as it plays Cover 3 and quarters coverage.
Stopping Gordon will be the main task for Texas' uber-talented defensive front. The Longhorns have dominated opponent rushing attempts that utilize man-blocking schemes and counters. This aspect will create longer distances on third down. Texas leads the nation in third-down defense, forcing an average distance to go of 7.6 yards.
The defensive side of the ball may be even more grim for Oklahoma State.
The Pokes have allowed at least 30 points in the last three games against the offenses of UCF, Houston and BYU. Both BYU and UCF exceeded the national average in Passing Downs Success Rate, while Houston logged eight explosive passes against the Cowboys.
Ewers has improved against the 3-3-5 scheme since his three-interception performance against Oklahoma State in 2022, which could be bad news for the Pokes.
Action Network projects this game at Texas -11, far below the market number. There's plenty of reason to believe Texas will look to score as many points as possible, as it may need style points to steal a College Football Playoff bid from Florida State.
With the ACC Championship game scheduled hours after the Big 12 Championship, look for Texas to replicate what BYU, Houston and UCF have done offensively while leaving the conference with a bang.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 35.5
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