Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 4 and our Oklahoma State vs Utah predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Read on for Oklahoma State vs. Utah odds, picks and predictions.
Oklahoma State vs Utah Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Why Oklahoma State Cowboys Can Cover the Spread
Yes, everybody expects Cam Rising to play on Saturday.
However, Kyle Whittingham also said he was a game-time decision for most of last season. He didn't play the whole year.
So, I never 100% trust anything coming out of this program.
But for the sake of this argument, we will assume Rising is a go.
He still needed to get stitches on his middle finger on his throwing hand. That can’t feel great, and there has to be a chance that affects his throwing. I currently have a hangnail on my middle finger, and just typing this is excruciating.
Either way, this game should be sponsored by AARP. Seventh-year senior Rising will take on seventh-year senior counterpart Alan Bowman. These quarterbacks were in the same recruiting class as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Despite being the same age, Bowman has actually played much more than Rising due to injuries. Rising has 29 career games under his belt, with three seasons as the Utah starter, while Bowman has played 43 career games between Texas Tech and Michigan and is now in his second year at Oklahoma State.
Bowman has gotten off to a great start to the season, throwing eight touchdown passes and averaging 322.3 yards per game. He put up over 300 yards through the air against Arkansas in a big comeback win.
De’Zhaun Stribling has been fantastic on the outside, averaging nearly 100 yards per game. He and Rashod Owens have picked up big plays on the outside, while slot receiver Brennan Presley provides the safety blanket underneath for Bowman.
The star of the show is obviously Ollie Gordon II. I am not overly concerned by Gordon's slow start. He still has four rushing touchdowns, and while he managed just 216 yards through his first three games, he also managed only 109 yards through his first three games last season. And then he rattled off nine 100-plus-yard games.
Teams have been loading the box against Gordon, but as we have seen from the first three games, Bowman and the wide receiver corps have stepped up. If you put too many guys in the box, the passing attack will beat you through the air.
Gordon will eventually get going, but the Cowboys' more balanced offense will only help him. Oklahoma State ranks 21st in EPA per Play, and that number will only improve when Gordon gets going.
Why Utah Utes Can Cover the Spread
Cam Rising will suit up for Utah on Saturday in Stillwater. That should be enough for the Utes to score a Big 12 road victory.
I have some questions about Utah, but I’m becoming actively worried about Oklahoma State after its inconsistent effort against Arkansas in Week 2.
The Cowboys won following a wild double-overtime comeback, but they shouldn’t have. The Hogs dropped 650 yards of total offense while holding the Pokes to 380. Taylen Green tore up Oklahoma State’s secondary (8.5 yards per dropback, 81st percentile), while Ja’Quinden Jackson blew through the front seven (150 yards on 24 carries, 6.2 YPC, 54% Success Rate).
I think the Pokes’ defense is struggling to find an adequate replacement for Collin Oliver, who has missed some time with a foot injury and will again be out this week. He leads the team in PFF’s Defensive grades and pressures (13) through 80 snaps played.
Of greater importance, Arkansas turned Oklahoma State’s biggest strength into a weakness. The Cowboys returned the 2023 Doak Award winner, Ollie Gordon II, and all five of his offensive linemen, yet the Hogs defensive line stuffed that unit into a locker, holding Gordon to under 50 yards at 2.9 yards per carry with a 24% Success Rate.
Utah has had some issues defending the run in the early season, but the Utes likely have the Big 12’s best defensive line behind Junior Tafuna and Keanu Tanuvasa. At the minimum, I believe Utah’s defensive line is better than Arkansas’, which makes me wonder if the Cowboys can move the ball on the ground this Saturday.
If they can’t – and I’m betting they won’t – they’ll again have to rely on Alan Bowman to save the day. The seventh-year quarterback eventually broke down Arkansas’ inexperienced, porous secondary en route to 320 yards. Still, it didn’t come easy, as he completed only 56% of his passes with two turnover-worthy plays and an interception.
I don’t believe he’ll be able to save the day against Utah, which should feature among the nation's best pass-rushing and coverage units. The Utes ranked in the top 25 nationally in on-target rate allowed and Havoc rate last season, and through three games this year, they rank:
- Eighth in EPA per Dropback allowed (-0.46)
- Ninth in Pass Success Rate allowed (27.6%)
- 11th in sacks (10)
- 15th in Havoc rate (16.1%)
- 30th in PFF’s Coverage grades (85.2)
- First in On-Target Rate allowed
Meanwhile, Rising and Brant Kuithe should have no problem slicing and dicing Oklahoma State’s defense as Green and Jackson did. I think I know which 25-year-old college quarterback will get a LinkedIn after this one.
Why Cowboys Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Tanner said he had some questions about Utah, so I will ask them.
Are the 2024 Utes as dominant defensively as past teams? Are we sure they can stop the nation's best running back? Are we sure their 67th-ranked Rush Success Rate allowed mark isn't a monster red flag in this matchup?
The Utes lost their best pass-rusher from last season (Jonah Elliss) to the NFL and their leading tackler (Levain Damuni) to a season-ending injury. They now have two monster holes in the defense.
Utah has played a cupcake schedule to this point in the season, with the best offense they faced being bottom-of-the-Mountain-West-barrel Utah State, which put up a whopping 385 total yards against the Utes "dominant defense."
I like Rising, but he has never been known for taking the top off the defense. He has just one big-time throw this season. In 2022, his last full season, he had 13 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays.
Utah doesn’t have anything close to the weapons on the outside that Oklahoma State does. Kuithe is their most dangerous pass catcher, but the strength of the Pokes' defense is up the middle. Linebackers Nick Martin and Kendal Daniels are the best players on the defense.
Oklahoma State’s biggest problem last season was allowing too many big plays on defense. They allowed seven explosive plays to Arkansas. But Utah is among the nation's least explosive teams.
Where are the big plays coming from in this Utah offense? Tanner mentioned Ja’Quinden Jackon’s big day on the ground for Arkansas. Well, you know why he had a monster day for the Razorbacks? Because he transferred from Utah.
Even if the Utes can move the ball, they won't create chunk gains. And when they get into scoring territory, Oklahoma State won't break, as the Cowboys rank seventh nationally in Finishing Drives allowed.
Oklahoma State will keep everything in front of it, keep the ball out of the end zone, and win.
Why Utes Are Better Bet
McGrath: While he’s been more available, that’s all Bowman has on Rising.
Bowman is serviceable. But he’s not overly efficient (career 7.3 yards per attempt, ranked 59th among 130 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback last season) and struggles to push the ball down the field (95th among 142 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s Deep Passing grades last season). He’s a play-action merchant who needs Gordon to unlock downfield routes.
And while you might not be worried about Gordon, I am.
For starters, Oklahoma State ranks 88th nationally in Line Yards and 71st in PFF’s Run Blocking grades. The uber-experienced unit has struggled in the early going against teams like South Dakota State and Tulsa.
Even worse, after averaging 3.7 yards after contact per rush across 385 attempts last season, that number is down to 2.5 through 61. That’s worrisome! He has yet to rip off a single 15-yard rush after putting together 31 in 2023.
Put it all together, Oklahoma State ranks 127th nationally in Rush Success Rate.
And this struggling offensive line and slumping superstar running back is supposed to improve against a consistently dominant Utes front seven? And Bowman will responsibly sling it under center against a secondary that ranks 12th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed since the start of 2023 (around 35%)?
Rising could be hurt, but he’ll still have a much easier time navigating the Pokes’ secondary than Bowman will the Utes’. The Cowboys returned a bunch on the defensive side of the football from last year's stop unit, but they ranked 100th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed and 84th in Pass Success Rate allowed in 2023.
Oklahoma State Football Spread: Why Cowboys Will Cover
Ianniello: I am not buying that Oklahoma State suddenly stinks at running the football.
The offensive line returned all five starters and more than 200 career starts. They didn’t just magically forget how to block. The unit has gotten off to a slow start but will not be held down for long.
Gordon is still among the nation's best backs. He forced 68 missed tackles last season and racked up over 1,000 yards AFTER contact. His 18 missed tackles forced this season are still the 12th most nationally.
Look at this run from earlier this season when he ran over three dudes:
He is still elite. He will make you pay if you don't respect him.
If you are only going to focus on this season and discard previous seasons for the Oklahoma State running game, why can’t we do the same for the passing game? Bowman has been terrific this season. He ranks second among Big 12 quarterbacks with nine passing touchdowns and third with 989 passing yards.
Bowman’s nine big-time throws this season lead all FBS quarterbacks. If you’re not worried about Gordon, you should be worried about Bowman and this group of receivers.
Rising has never been a guy who will push the ball deep down the field, and underneath throws is exactly what Oklahoma State wants you to do. The Cowboys' 3-3-5 scheme is vulnerable to big plays over the top, but they thrive when the play is in front of them — which is exactly what Utah will do.
Utah Football Spread: Why Utes Will Cover
McGrath: If you can argue that Utah has played a cupcake schedule, I can argue the same about Oklahoma State. Both have played a mediocre Power 4 school, an FCS opponent and a Group of 5 squad.
But Utah has handled its business against these cupcakes, while Oklahoma State has looked rather unimpressive.
| Utah Opponent | Total Yards | Total Yards Allowed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Utah | 513 | 150 | 49-0 |
| Baylor | 292 | 223 | 23-12 |
| Utah State | 460 | 285 | 38-21 |
| Totals | 1265 | 758 | 110-33 |
| Oklahoma State Opponent | Total Yards | Total Yards Allowed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State | 394 | 388 | 44-20 |
| Arkansas | 385 | 648 | 39-31 |
| Tulsa | 560 | 352 | 45-10 |
| Totals | 1339 | 1388 | 128-61 |
The Cowboys' negative yards per game differential, despite their 3-0 record, can’t bode well.
Rising has completed 62% of his passes for 12 yards per attempt through two games. Kuithe is a stud. USC transfer Dorian Singer already has 10 catches for 109 yards. Money Parks has eight catches for a whopping 133 yards and two scores, suitable for 2.02 yards per route run, which is higher than any Oklahoma State receiver.
I feel good about the skill position matchup.
I would’ve been worried about Gordon in the preseason. When I look at Oklahoma State now, I see a regressing running back and a mercurial quarterback with a vulnerable defense. Conversely, I see a healthy Rising and a more well-rounded squad producing more sustainable results when I look at Utah.
Closing Arguments for Oklahoma State vs Utah Spread
Ianniello: Bet Oklahoma State +1
Saturday should be entertaining.
The game features two of the nation's oldest quarterbacks in the country and two of college football's longest-tenured coaches.
Both coaches have been at their respective schools for 19 years, and you can argue that these are two of the best coaches the sport has ever seen.
No disrespect to the Pac 12, but college football is a little different in this part of the country. This is Stillwater, Oklahoma. Not Los Angeles. There is nothing to do here except root on the Cowboys.
And the Pokes do not lose at Boone Pickens Stadium under Mike Gundy. Since he took over in 2005, the Cowboys are 77-15 (83.7%) straight-up as a home favorite.
Back the Pokes at home, and trust that Ollie Gordon's breakout game is coming.
McGrath: Bet Utah -1
Oklahoma State’s super-experienced offensive line and superstar running back are struggling. That hamstrings the entire offense, meaning Bowman must carry the team by spreading the offense out.
Bowman already struggles to work through progressions and avoid mistakes, and he’s about to face the best secondary in college football in On-Target Rate allowed.
I see the Pokes’ offense grinding to a halt on Saturday.
Rising might not be 100%. But it might not matter, given Oklahoma State’s defense is shorthanded and struggling.
The Utes win this one outright by generating just enough offense to compliment their dominant defensive effort.
