Bedlam Odds: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
- Odds: Oklahoma -13.5
- Over/Under: 68
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -500, OK State +350
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
Odds as of Saturday at 7 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Oklahoma is one of the coldest teams in the country, at least as it relates to the point spread.
The Sooners, always big favorites thanks to their dynamic offense, haven't covered in four straight games, including an outright loss to Kansas State as a 23-point favorite. Their next three wins came by a total of nine points, and they were a 14.5-point favorite on average.
So can Oklahoma State swoop in and pull off a big upset? It will be an uphill battle without quarterback Spencer Sanders.
Collin Wilson: Will Oklahoma's Turnover Luck Change?
Oklahoma ranks 115th in turnover margin at -7. That puts them in the same range as UConn, Kansas and UTEP. There are issues all over from Jalen Hurts fumbling or throwing interceptions in the red zone, but the biggest issue is that the Sooners have only gained three fumbles.
This is certainly not the statistic the Sooners wanted to struggle with on either side of the ball, especially since the ‘Speed D’ implemented by Alex Grinch should feast on havoc.
Despite losing starting quarterback Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State found a way to cover the closing number against West Virginia. The Cowboys are now 9-2 against the spread for the season and will go bowling in a few weeks. But first, there is Bedlam.
Dru Brown was adequate under center for the Cowboys in Morgantown, going 22-for-28 with touchdowns and no interceptions. Brown hit five different receivers, but the offense was led by running back Chuba Hubbard.
Oklahoma's defense ranks 74th in passing explosiveness, but Brown didn't show much against West Virginia to suggest he will be able to capitalize on that weakness.
Oklahoma's offense ranks first in success rate and should be able to do what it wants against the Cowboys, who rank outside the top-50 in efficiency and 96th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.
Oklahoma has fallen to 63rd in havoc allowed, but the Cowboys are just 62nd in defensive havoc, so the Sooners should be able to contain the Oklahoma State defense.
With an advantage in red zone efficiency, havoc and finishing drives I think the Sooners have enough edges to back them at any number under two touchdowns.
The College Football Playoff Committee will have its eye on this game and if the Sooners can clean up the turnovers, they will have a chance to make a statement against a talented Oklahoma State squad in a rivalry game.
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Kyle Miller: These Offenses Aren't That Close
Oklahoma State did cover, but the Cowboys struggled for much of the day against West Virginia last week. I expect that to continue this week when they host Oklahoma for Bedlam.
On the outside this game doesn’t look nearly as important as some of the more recent bouts between these two, but this one means everything for Oklahoma. The Sooners still have an outside shot at a playoff birth but they obviously can’t afford a slip up here.
As has been the case for many years with these teams, the offenses will be able to move the ball effectively and dictate the way this one plays out. Oklahoma had the superior unit on that side of the ball when Sanders was healthy, but now it’s not even close. Brown had an average day in Morgantown last week but he’ll need to do much better than average if the Cowboys were to pull off the upset.
While Oklahoma State has been very explosive on the ground, they rank just 78th in rushing success rate. The reliance on long plays will only grow stronger without Sanders. If they aren’t getting a ton of long runs from Hubbard, Oklahoma State isn’t going to do much on offense.
Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, and the Oklahoma offense need to make a statement. Time is running out for them to make their playoff push and they need a convincing win in this game.
Pick: I make the Sooners a 16.5-point favorite in this one so I’m happy to lay two touchdowns or less.
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Stuckey: Buy Low on the Sooners?
As Collin pointed out above, I think the perception on this Sooner team is artificially low because of a few unlucky results, including close wins and non-covers against Texas, TCU and Iowa State.
Oklahoma could have blown Texas out of the water, but the Sooners kept the Longhorns in the game thanks to multiple turnovers in the red zone. Against TCU, Oklahoma outgained the Horned Frogs by almost 300 yards and were about to go up 18 before a 98-yard pick six — which only happened because the receiver fell down. And the Sooners led the Cyclones by 21 multiple times before taking their foot off the gas and having to survive a furious comeback attempt.
The bottom line is this team is fully capable of blowing a team like Oklahoma State out of the water and the bad turnover luck is mostly random.
This is still one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 8.4 yards per play, which is better than the 2017 Oklahoma team with Baker Mayfield. In fact, if the season ended today, Lincoln Reilly's bunch would finish tied with 2006 Hawaii for the second-highest single season yards per play average in NCAA history.
This is an offense that ranks first in rushing success rate and second in passing success rate with plenty of complementary explosiveness. And despite some of the bad turnover luck in the red zone, the Sooners still rank 15th in Finishing Drives.
The Oklahoma State defense is an average unit that doesn't get after the quarterback. Jalen Hurts should be able to methodically move OU down the field all day long.
On the other side of the ball, the Oklahoma defense is improved from last year, primarily as a result of defensive speed and scheme tweaks. They are a very aggressive unit that can get after the quarterback and force turnovers. On the flip side, the Sooners do give up too many explosive passing plays, but Oklahoma State's offense isn't set up to exploit that weakness without Sanders and top wide receiver Tylan Wallace.
Hubbard is one of the best running backs in the country, but Oklahoma should be able to focus on stopping him without Sanders and Wallace in the lineup.
Oklahoma State played a very conservative game against West Virginia and didn't go over the 300-yard mark. Oklahoma should create enough negative plays to get Oklahoma State behind the sticks to stall enough drives to where the Sooners can't keep up.
Pick: I'm splitting this bet on the Oklahoma first-half and full-game spread, as I think the Sooners will finally have a complete game and win by two-plus touchdowns.
