The Ole Miss Rebels head to Gainesville on Saturday afternoon to take on the Florida Gators in an SEC showdown. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC) has a better shot of making the College Football Playoff than competing for an SEC Championship. Because of tiebreakers between six different teams at the top of the conference, Ole Miss would need nearly every team at the top of the standings to lose. Still, the selection committee placed Ole Miss as the third-highest-ranked SEC team.
The path is clear for head coach Lane Kiffin: win at Florida and in the Egg Bowl for a ticket to the 12-team playoff.
On the other side, Florida (5-5, 3-4) is champing at the bit for a sixth win to make an improbable bowl appearance.
Head coach Billy Napier will get two cracks at getting a sixth win, first as a large underdog to Ole Miss and in the Week 14 showdown as a favorite at Florida State.
The Game of the Year number settled at Ole Miss -6.5 preseason and moved to an opener of -9.5 after Week 12. The spread has taken steam on the Rebels, climbing to 10.5 as of writing. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 55.5.
Let's dive into my Ole Miss vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction
- Ole Miss vs. Florida Pick: Ole Miss -10
My Florida vs. Ole Miss best bet is on the Rebels to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ole Miss vs Florida Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
- Ole Miss vs Florida Spread: Ole Miss -10 (-115) · Florida +10 (-105)
- Ole Miss vs Florida Over/Under: 55.5
- Ole Miss vs Florida Moneyline: Ole Miss -385 · Florida +300
Ole Miss vs Florida Preview
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Getting Weapons Back
Since a bye in Week 8, Ole Miss has been on fire both offensively and defensively. Three consecutive victories over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia have come by a combined 62 points.
The defense has the top spot in our current Havoc Rankings, generating top-10 numbers in pass rush grading. Edge rushers Princely Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins rank as two of the top six FBS players in Pass Rush Productivity, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding's nickel defense has been stellar against the rush with a top-20 rank in all analytics.
If there's a drop-off on the Ole Miss defense, the secondary falls to 31st in coverage despite the second-most pass breakups in the country.
The offense has been a steamroller behind quarterback Jaxson Dart, posting a top-five rank in Quality Drives. More than half of the Rebels' offensive possessions against Georgia had at least two first downs, nearly doubling the Bulldogs' number in yards per play.
Ole Miss' pass efficiency has skyrocketed the past three games despite the loss of leading receiver Tre Harris.
Dart has posted eight touchdowns to just a single interception since the bye week and is now set to get his most dangerous weapon back against Florida.
I love Lane Kiffin, Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris so much right now pic.twitter.com/rMkz5dWdff
— We Run the Sip (@OMRebelNation) September 28, 2024
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Trending Up
A covering effort against Georgia was costly for Florida's roster, suffering several injuries heading into a Week 11 road trip at Texas. The Longhorns took advantage of a Florida squad missing starters at quarterback, wide receiver and both cornerback positions.
The Gators got healthy in Gainesville last week, as quarterback DJ Lagway and receiver Elijhah Badger returned to action for a double-digit victory over LSU as underdogs.
👀🐊 DJ Lagway plays it like a pro in the game with an excellent back-shoulder throw to Elijhah Badger putting the Florida #Gators up 7-0 on No. 22 LSU in The Swamp.pic.twitter.com/jvg29Ao4jz
— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) November 16, 2024
Lagway survived 10 pressures on 26 dropbacks without taking a single sack against LSU. The scrambling skills will be needed against Ole Miss, as the rushing attack continues to be a complementary phase.
Jadan Baugh and Ja'Kobi Jackson have produced 11 touchdowns on a heavy amount of inside zone. Star running back Montrell Johnson also returned from injury for a few carries against LSU but should be full speed for Ole Miss.
The rush offense generated 6.7 yards per play against LSU, following up a 68% Success Rate on 40 carries against Texas.
The Gators' nickel defense improved after simplifying concepts, schemes and communication. The results were apparent in the first half against Georgia, limiting the Bulldogs to just six points.
Injuries took a toll at all levels, particularly on every starter in the secondary.
The key names to watch on the SEC availability report are cornerbacks Jason Marshall and Devin Moore.
They'll be important because LSU targeted sophomore cornerback Dijon Johnson eight times for six completions and 40 yards after contact.
Ole Miss vs Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Florida match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 46 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 78 | |
Florida Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 6 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 88 |
| PFF Coverage | 31 | 115 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 27 | 93 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.4 (8) | 27.5 (76) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (67) | 57% (51) |
Ole Miss vs Florida Pick & Prediction
Ole Miss is fully prepared to stop a Florida rush offense that should be playing at full strength. Efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate numbers all point to the Rebels dominating the trench.
If that's the case, the Gators will fall into passing downs, where they rank 94th in Success Rate and 112th in explosives.
Florida sits 99th in third-down conversion rate — a negative heading into a game against an Ole Miss defense that leads the nation in average third-down distance at 8.6 yards.
The Gators offense must also correct issues at the line of scrimmage, ranking 96th in Havoc Allowed.
Lagway has been impressive as a freshman under fire against the SEC schedule, but an average time to throw of 2.8 seconds will give Ole Miss plenty of sack opportunities.
With the Rebels offense at full strength and the prospect of underclassmen in the secondary, Lagway could be throwing plenty with a deficit on the scoreboard.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make Ole Miss a -10 favorite come in at Ole Miss -10, but injuries to Florida's defense and good news at the Rebels' skill positions will have an impact.
Look to take Ole Miss with College Football Playoff motivation in mind. Also, monitor the status of Florida's defense, as Ole Miss may have no reason to kneel if Kiffin wants to add style points for the committee.
Pick: Ole Miss -10 · Ole Miss Team Total Over 34.5
Ole Miss vs Florida Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
The Ole Miss Rebels head to Gainesville on Saturday to take on the Florida Gators at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss vs Florida Betting Trends
Ole Miss vs Florida Weather
