Oregon vs Arizona State Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
Since losing to archrival Washington, Oregon has won its last four games, and few teams nationally have looked more impressive. Last week, it improved to 9-1 with a 36-27 victory over USC.
However, with little movement above them, the Ducks hold steady at No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Unfortunately, the Ducks may have encountered a distraction as they prepare to battle Arizona State.
Head coach Dan Lanning, an elite recruiter with SEC ties, was asked about the opening at Texas A&M after it fired Jimbo Fisher on Sunday. As expected, Lanning publicly denied interest, but the situation will be something to watch.
Meanwhile, Arizona State will come into this game confidently after upsetting UCLA at the Rose Bowl last week. It's been scrappy lately, covering against USC, Washington, and UCLA.
In a similar spot in 2019, Arizona State upset an Oregon team that was 9-1, also ranked No. 6, and ended their hopes of making the CFP.
This time, Arizona State is over a three-touchdown home dog. Will the Sun Devils recreate history? Or will the Ducks offense keep rolling?
Read on for our Oregon vs Arizona State odds, picks and predictions.
Oregon Ducks
Considering they're in contention to win it all, it's no surprise that the Ducks have plenty of players up for conference and national awards.
Quarterback Bo Nix was named a semifinalist for the Davey O'Brien and Maxwell Awards this week. The fifth-year senior is in the top 10 nationally in QBR, passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns.
Nix is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman on FanDuel, as Oregon sits third in the FBS in Passing Success Rate.
It helps that he has been sacked just nine times in two seasons as Oregon's starting quarterback. His offensive line was named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award despite returning just one starter from last year's group. Oregon has allowed the country's fewest sacks (four) this season and is PFF's top-graded pass-blocking team.
The Ducks are also third in Line Yard, fifth in Havoc allowed, and second in PFF's run-blocking grades.
They lost running back Noah Whittington to injury a few weeks back, but Bucky Irving and Jordan James are still lethal. If James scores this week, they will each have 10 rushing touchdowns.
Irving has run for 80 or more yards in each of his past seven games, and he needs only 61 yards for his second consecutive 1,000-yard season.
Irving would join receiver Troy Franklin in the 1K Club, as the explosive wideout reached 1,000 receiving yards last week against USC. Franklin's streak of 13 consecutive games with four receptions ended, but he had two catches for 147 yards and an 84-yard touchdown.
I think he will be OK with a couple fewer targets in exchange for two explosive plays for one week.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State is seventh in the Pac-12 in scoring defense, allowing 27.4 points per game this season.
However, it's trending upward.
It shut down Washington's high-powered offense in an eight-point loss a few weeks ago. It also stymied UCLA last week, holding the Bruins to a single score.
Washington's running game was nonexistent, accumulating 13 yards on 13 attempts.
However, ASU also recently allowed 55 points to Utah. The Utes had four players run for over 50 yards en route to 352 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on the day.
Like Utah, Oregon will have a significant advantage on the ground. Arizona State is 113th in Defensive Line Yards, 89th in Havoc generated and 78th in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
Nix will also make his presence known against an Arizona State secondary that ranks 92nd nationally in PFF's coverage grades.
Oregon vs Arizona State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Arizona State match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 114 | |
Arizona State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 39 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 92 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 80 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 6 | 102 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (68) | 26.9 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 47.5% (94) | 45.9% (115) |
Oregon vs Arizona State
Betting Pick & Prediction
When possible, I try to avoid laying points with a big road favorite, especially given the circumstances of this game.
In a season with very few major upsets, Oregon is putting its national title hopes on the line while visiting the team that ruined its dreams four years ago in the same week.
However, that ASU team was led by Jayden Daniels, an ascending true freshman. This year, ASU ranks 125th in Pass Success Rate and 116th in Finishing Drives.
If Oregon is going to cover, it'll likely do so by scoring a ton.
Oregon's offensive line will have a massive advantage in this game, which should lead to big days for Irving and James. Nix has also run for a touchdown in three of his past four games.
Additionally, with weapons like Franklin, Tez Johnson and tight end Terrance Ferguson at his disposal, Nix will likely have a big day through the air.
After all, Nix is trying to win the Heisman.
Oregon has scored at least 30 points in all 10 games this year. That includes five games of at least 40 points.
FanDuel has Oregon's team total listed at 38.5 points at -102, while DraftKings has 37.5 points at -140 odds.
Oregon may score 40 points this week, but it also has scored 35 and 36 in games this season, and it landed on exactly 38 in two others. The Ducks have scored 38 points in seven of 10 games this year.
So, I don’t mind drinking a little juice to increase the hit rate here.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 37.5
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