Cal vs Oregon Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -118 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +570 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -104 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
So, you're saying there's a chance?
Oregon's College Football Playoff hopes looked all but over just one week into the season, but the Ducks have taken flight in the six weeks since to keep themselves in the CFP discussion.
They now hit the road in pursuit of their seventh straight win — all but one of which were by at least two touchdowns — as they travel to face a reeling Cal team.
The Golden Bears have dropped three Pac-12 games in a row, including two by a single score. Will Saturday serve as a turning point for Cal, or can Oregon keep blowing teams out the weekend before the first CFP rankings are released?
California Golden Bears
Cal finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum, amidst a three-game losing streak with games against Oregon and USC on deck. The Golden Bears are 3-4 on the season with the only Power Five win coming over Arizona and an overtime loss to Colorado, one of the worst teams in the country.
The Bears have had modest success in the passing game with Purdue transfer Jack Plummer, who has completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,754 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Cal has had difficulties protecting, Plummer, however, as it ranks 111th in sacks allowed per game (3.29). Fortunately for the Bears, the Oregon pass rush isn't exactly a game-breaker with only 13 total sacks on the season.
It's been hit or miss for Cal in the run game with freshman Jaydn Ott. Ott ran for 274 yards and three touchdowns against Arizona, but he has averaged just 51.7 yards in the three games since with a lone touchdown.
With a mediocre offense, Cal's defense hasn't been good enough to keep it in games either. All four Pac-12 opponents have scored at least 20 points against the Bears, although they limited limit Washington (40.4 points per game) to six first-half points and 28 total points last week, a season-low for the Huskies.
While allowing only 117.0 rushing yards per game, Cal rank just 117th in terms of Rush Success. Defending the passing game has also been a liability, as the Bears have surrendered at least 340 passing yards in three of the last four games.
Oregon Ducks
Last Saturday officially marked the first day in which Bo Nix Heisman memes became serious statements, as the quarterback had arguably the best performance of his four-year career.
Nix accounted for over 300 yards of offense and five touchdowns with zero turnovers as the Ducks fairly easily handled a top-10 UCLA team in Eugene.
It's the type of performance that is becoming more customary for Nix in his first year in the Pacific Northwest. The quarterback is on pace for career bests in completion percentage and yards per attempt, and he has already set career highs in passing (17) and rushing touchdowns (8) in a season with at least six games to go.
Nix has helped orchestrate an offense that has scored at least 41 points in every game this season since the shellacking in Atlanta. Oregon's 49 points per game since Week 2 ranks third in the country.
And while Nix and receiver Troy Franklin have been one of the more dangerous duos in football this season, the Ducks are even more potent running the ball.
Oregon ranks fifth in the country with 244.6 rushing yards per game, including averaging 306.3 over the last three games against the likes of Stanford, Arizona and UCLA.
Oregon's defense hasn't been nearly up to snuff with the offense, allowing at least 20 points to every Power Five opponent it has faced this season. The Ducks have particularly struggled against the pass, where they rank 115th and 104th in Pass Success and pass blocking.
Cal vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cal and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs Cal Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 97 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 2 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 36 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Cal Offense vs Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 115 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 85 | 77 |
| PFF Coverage | 51 | 85 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 55 | 64 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (59) | 26.8 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (63) | 44.8% (116) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Cal vs Oregon Betting Pick
The Ducks are rolling and the Bears are not, but this fits all the classic tropes of being a potential trap game. It's a brand new coaching staff at Oregon, dealing for the first time with this sort of momentum and growing expectations while also playing on the road.
I still think Oregon wins, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see the Ducks get caught sleeping a bit in the first half, allowing Cal to keep this thing within the number. I see more certainty in backing Nix and the Oregon offense to continue to show up.
As previously mentioned, only Georgia has kept Oregon below 41 points this season, yet Oregon's team total is set at 37.5 against the Bears. The Cal defense isn't exactly a group of world-beaters, especially against the run — Oregon's main strength.
If this game is a blowout, the Ducks will cash this number. If Oregon shows up sleepy and its defense allows some early points, the Ducks offense will be forced to keep the foot on the gas and cash this number.
Oregon has had a top-five offense since Week 1, and I see no reason why things will change in Berkeley.
