Oregon vs Michigan Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 2

Oregon vs Michigan Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 2 article feature image
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Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images. Pictured: The Michigan Wolverines.

The reigning national champion will host the No. 1 team in the AP Poll in Week 10.

After winning the 2024 national title game and putting a stamp on a two-year record of 23-1, Michigan (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) promoted offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to bridge the program into a new era without Jim Harbaugh.

Oddsmakers posted the Wolverines' win total at 9 — a number that can only push if the team wins its remaining games.

Moore continues to call an offense for two quarterbacks with differing skills and efficiency, a consistent problem for the Wolverines this season.

Undefeated Oregon (8-0, 5-0) will head to the Midwest for the second time this season, previously covering the spread against Purdue on the Friday of Week 8.

The Ducks took home the biggest game of the Big Ten season against Ohio State in Week 7, while easily covering a 3-touchdown spread against ranked Illinois last week.

Despite Michigan not being a playoff contender, this game serves as a measuring stick for the College Football Playoff committee.

Oregon enters as a -14.5 favorite with an over/under of 45.5.

Let's dive into my Oregon vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.


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Oregon vs Michigan Prediction

  • Oregon vs. Michigan Pick: Michigan +16

My Oregon-Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.


Oregon vs Michigan Odds

Oregon Logo
Saturday, Nov. 2
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Michigan Logo
Oregon Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-14.5
-110
45.5
-110 / -110
-700
Michigan Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+14.5
-110
45.5
-110 / -110
+500
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
bet365 Logo
  • Oregon vs Michigan Spread: Oregon -14.5 (-110) · Michigan +14.5 (-110)
  • Oregon vs Michigan Over/Under: 45.5 Points
  • Oregon vs Michigan Moneyline: Oregon -700 · Michigan +500


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Oregon vs Michigan Preview


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Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Firing on (Almost) All Cylinders

Offensive coordinator Will Stein has Oregon cruising over the past two games. The Ducks outscored Illinois and Purdue by a combined score of 73-9.

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has posted six big-time throws to a single turnover-worthy play over the past eight quarters. With 42 all-purpose touchdowns, Gabriel has been vaulted to the top of the Heisman watch.

Oregon is playing as the most efficient offense in the nation while ranking seventh in third-down conversions.

Dillon Gabriel drops back to pass, clips his nails, combs his hair, reads a book then finds Tez Johnson for the TD pass#OregonDucks#GoDucks

pic.twitter.com/05kWFuyrTh

— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) October 26, 2024

The Oregon defense continues to carry the characteristics that contributed to a victory over Ohio State. The Ducks are the second-best coverage defense, per PFF, backed by a rank of sixth in opponent Passing Success Rate.

Cornerbacks Brandon Johnson and Jabbar Muhammad have combined for 12 pass breakups on the season.

The issue for defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is defending the rush. The Ducks rank 86th in Defensive Line Yards, indicating opposing offensive lines are creating running lanes.

Tackling at the second level has also been poor, as the Ducks are 141st in broken and missed tackle rate when considering all FBS and FCS teams.

Inside zone read and man rush concepts have given the Ducks defense the most severe issues.


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Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Passing Struggles Remain

The quarterback carousel in Ann Arbor continues, as sixth-year senior Jack Tuttle retired from football earlier this week.

Davis Warren took over the passing attempts, while Alex Orji chipped in six rushing attempts against Michigan State.

Michigan boasts one of the worst offenses in terms of creating explosive plays and methodical possessions, ranking 110th in quality drives.

Warren completed 14-of-20 passes, but with an average depth of target at 4.4 yards, first downs came from only one of seven targets.

Tight end Colston Loveland received nearly half of the targets from Warren. The junior lines up all over the field, from in-line to wideout to the slot.

Michigan could have the worst offense in the B1G if it weren't for Colston Loveland pic.twitter.com/b0S1AwrxJU

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) October 30, 2024

Outside of the predictable passing game, Orji will continue to share carries with running back Kalel Mullings, generating the most success with outside zone and explosives with inside zone.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has a leaky back end of the defense, ranking first in pass rush but 80th in coverage, per PFF.

This nickel defense calls blitz on 39% of snaps, creating a boom-or-bust dynamic for the Wolverines. Opponents have dominated in passing downs, as Michigan ranks 125th in stopping explosives in known passing situations.


Oregon vs Michigan Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Michigan match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success1151
Line Yards2043
Pass Success566
Havoc1437
Finishing Drives3456
Quality Drives1665
Michigan Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success4566
Line Yards3786
Pass Success876
Havoc757
Finishing Drives3943
Quality Drives11013
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling4268
PFF Coverage280
Special Teams SP+2314
Middle 87827
Seconds per Play27.4 (68)30.8 (130)
Rush Rate52% (66)62% (18)

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Oregon vs Michigan Pick & Prediction

One element missing from the elite numbers Gabriel has posted in the last two Oregon wins is a solid pressure rate. The Oregon offensive line allowed just eight pressures against Illinois and Purdue after giving up 58 in the previous six games.

Gabriel continues to be uncomfortable in a crowded pocket, throwing a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays in 47 pressured dropbacks this season.

A trio of defensive linemen in Derrick Moore, Mason Graham and Josaiah Stewart lead the Wolverines with 24 pressures apiece.

The Ducks defense has struggled against the rush far more than the pass. Illinois and Purdue each produced a Success Rate higher than 51% on rushing attempts.

Because Oregon can be caught for explosives defending inside zone, expect Orji and Mullings to get the Wolverines in position to score. Oregon's poor FBS rank in broken tackles allowed will also play a factor.

Look for Michigan's more disciplined defense to get to Gabriel, potentially forcing a turnover. Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for this spread to be lower than 17 points, giving minimal value to the home underdog.

Pick: Michigan +16 or Better


Oregon vs Michigan Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch

Location:Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Date:Saturday, Nov. 2
Kickoff Time:3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:CBS

Oregon faces Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 2, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.


Oregon vs Michigan Betting Trends


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About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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