The Oregon Ducks (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) travel across the country to face the Purdue Boilermakers (1-5, 0-3) in the Ducks' first-ever Big Ten road game not on the West Coast.
Oregon beat a top-2 team in the country for the first time in 20 tries in a historic win over Ohio State.
It was Dan Lanning's 1st signature win as head coach. Purdue showed a lot of fight against Illinois last weekend before choking the game away in the final minutes to lose in overtime, 50-49.
The Ducks enter this game as -29 favorites with the over/under at 60. Oregon is in a precarious spot as it makes its longest trip of the season to West Lafayette on a short week to battle the worst team in the Big Ten.
These are the types of spots where top teams tend to slip up in non-covering efforts, so Oregon better come ready to play on Friday night.
Let's dive into my Oregon vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Oregon vs. Purdue Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-30 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+30 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +1550 |
- Oregon vs. Purdue Spread: Oregon -30
- Oregon vs. Purdue Over/Under: 61 Total Points (-110o / -110u)
- Oregon vs. Purdue Moneyline: Oregon ML -4500 · Purdue ML +1550
Oregon Ducks vs. Purdue Boilermakers Pick
Spread
I'm going to pass on the spread. With Oregon sitting as big as -30.5 now, I don't see value betting the spread.
Over/Under
Bet over 60. My Purdue vs. Oregon best bet is for these teams to score more than 60 combined points. While Oregon may be in a bit of a hangover spot following its win over Ohio State, expect it to find a groove while Purdue finds a way to contribute to the scoring thanks to new quarterback Ryan Browne.
Moneyline
There is too much juice for me to bet Oregon on the moneyline, and I don't see value on Purdue's moneyline either.
Pick
My prediction is that Oregon and Purdue will go over the posted total.
- Oregon vs Purdue Pick: Over 60
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel came up huge in big moments against Ohio State last weekend, which is nothing new because he's been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season.
He's posted a PFF Passing Grade of 88 on an 83.6% adjusted completion percentage with 13 touchdowns. He has also completed nearly 60% of his passes over 10 air yards, thanks to an elite receiving corps that generates plenty of separation.
Tez Johnson has quickly become Gabriel's favorite target, compiling 470 yards receiving in six games. He works mainly out of the slot and is Gabriel's main target in short routes.
Johnson has an average depth of target of just 5.2 and averages just 9.6 yards per catch, but he has already commanded 60 targets from Gabriel. He'll be huge for Oregon in this game with how bad Purdue has been in one-on-one coverage.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon has seen some struggles against the run. The Ducks may be 43rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they've given up a lot of big plays on the ground, ranking 116th in explosive rushing allowed.
They also aren't dominating in the trenches considering the talent they boast, ranking 66th in Defensive Line Yards and 94th in Stuff Rate.
One of the other concerning signs about Oregon's defense is how efficient teams have been in the red zone. Opponents have scored a field goal or touchdown on 93.8% of their trips inside Ducks' 20, which is really concerning.
Oregon is also allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity, which puts it 111th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Purdue's defense is providing no resistance right now, as teams can do whatever they want to the Boilermakers. This is the worst secondary in the Power 4, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 9.6 yards per attempt while ranking 125th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Illinois' Luke Altmyer threw for 379 yards and five big-time throws against Purdue's secondary last weekend, so Gabriel will have a field day here.
The Boilermakers can't stop giving up big plays in the run game either. They may sit 77th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they're 130th in explosive rushing allowed. Just take a look at some of the rushing totals they've allowed this season:
| Opponent | Rush Yards Allowed |
|---|---|
| vs. Notre Dame | 362 |
| at Oregon State | 341 |
| vs. Nebraska | 161 |
| at Wisconsin | 228 |
| at Illinois | 177 |
On the other side of the ball, the offense showed up against Illinois because of Ryan Browne's play at quarterback.
Hudson Card was out with a concussion, so Browne stepped in against a top-25 team and went 18-for-26 for 297 yards and three touchdowns.
Browne was a three-star prospect coming out of high school, but if last week's start was any indication, he's far more effective than Card has been.
Regardless of whether or not Card has recovered from his concussion, Browne will be the starter on Friday night.
Coach Walters has confirmed freshman QB Ryan Browne will start Friday night against the No. 2 Oregon Ducks. No new information about Hudson Card's role has been revealed. pic.twitter.com/Sp1bZ9kj24
— Exponent Sports Desk (@Exponent_Sports) October 14, 2024
The one thing about the Purdue offense that's encouraging is its ability to finish off drives.
The Boilers don't cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a high rate, but when they do, they're averaging 4.3 points per scoring opportunity, which is good for 20th in the nation.
Purdue should also find some success on the ground. Despite the 1-5 record, it's 35th in EPA/Rush, and its offensive line is 37th in Offensive Line Yards. Oregon's run defense, meanwhile, remains closer to average.
Purdue vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 122 | |
Purdue Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 116 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 127 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 6 | 88 |
| Middle 8 | 90 | 134 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (56) | 29.3 (113) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (79) | 54% (81) |
How to Bet My Oregon vs. Purdue Prediction
Purdue is truly the worst Power 4 defense in the country. Even though Walters came to West Lafayette as a defensive mastermind, he hasn't figured things out yet, as the Boilermakers are allowing 7.1 yards per play on average — the sixth-worst mark in college football.
This is a potential flat spot for Oregon coming off that huge win over Ohio State while traveling all the way to the Eastern time zone to play on a short week. Even with those factors, the Ducks should still roll against Purdue's defense.
I really think the Boilermakers can move the ball this game, especially on the ground. Oregon has been a well below-average run defense this season and has given up way too many big plays.
Additionally, don't be surprised if the Boilermakers put quite a few points on the board if Browne looks anywhere close to how he looked against Illinois.
I have 67.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 60 points.
Pick: Over 60
Oregon vs. Purdue Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 18 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Purdue vs. Oregon Betting Trends
Oregon vs. Purdue Weather
