A game against UCLA taking place at 11 p.m. ET in the Rose Bowl, and it’s Oregon’s first conference game in the Big Ten?
What a bizarro college football landscape we live in.
It's a crazy setting for a Big Ten matchup, but it’s nonetheless very real as the world waits to see what the real Oregon team is. The Ducks (3-0) opened their season with two closer-than-expected wins over Idaho and Boise State before finally taking their offseason-darling form and annihilating in-state foe Oregon State.
Life in the Big Ten hasn’t been as kind to UCLA (1-2), however. The Bruins have already picked up a conference loss against Indiana and fell by double digits last week to LSU, despite a career day from quarterback Ethan Garbers.
Oregon marks the second of three consecutive games UCLA plays against ranked opponents. Is there any hope for the Bruins to keep their season from going off the rails before the calendar even turns to October?
Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins Pick
- UCLA vs Oregon Prediction: Oregon -24.5
My Oregon-UCLA best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs UCLA Odds, Spread, How to Watch
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -3000 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
- Oregon vs UCLA Point Spread: Oregon +23.5 · UCLA -23.5
- Oregon vs UCLA Total: Over/Under 54.5
- Oregon vs UCLA Moneyline: Oregon -3000 · UCLA +1200
Oregon Football vs UCLA Football Betting Preview
Fresh off a bye, Oregon arrives in Pasadena with a perfect record and national title hopes still intact. The first two weeks featured a sluggish start to a season with lofty expectations, but if the Ducks channel their Oregon State performance, UCLA and the rest of the Big Ten could be in for a rude awakening.
Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel, known for his accuracy more than his arm strength, has lived up to that billing. He is the only FBS quarterback completing over 80% of his passes (84).
Gabriel is the only Big Ten quarterback averaging north of 300 yards passing per game, and he has an extremely talented pass-catching quartet of wideouts Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and tight end Terrance Ferguson to help make sure that remains the case.
Running back Jordan James is also a talented complementary piece, with James averaging 94.3 yards rushing per game behind an offensive line that is just coming up to speed after dealing with injuries to start the season.
Oregon’s defense still has a performance gap, but it’s a unit that has made improvements from 2023. The secondary ranks 25th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and held Boise State and Idaho to fewer than 110 passing yards. The run defense is better than statistics, with a third of its data coming from a game against Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty.
Oh … if it isn’t the consequences of my own actions.
From a nightmare conference media day in July to consecutive double-digit losses and a squeaker of a win against Hawaii, UCLA's transition from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten has been anything but a breeze.
Finding offensive success has been particularly difficult for the Bruins. Only two teams in the entire FBS have scored fewer than UCLA’s four offensive touchdowns, with the high watermark in scoring coming last week against LSU, in which UCLA scored 17 points.
The Eric Bienemy offense has yet to find the ground attack that defined the Chip Kelly era. The Bruins rank 131st nationally in Rush Success Rate. UCLA averages just 60.3 yards rushing despite not playing any defensive juggernauts — a far cry from 2023, when the Bruins averaged nearly 200 yards rushing per game.
Garbers threw for a career-high 281 yards against LSU, but the UCLA passing threat has similarly struggled. Garbers has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), and he’s seen his completion percentage tick down over 10 points from 2023 to where it is now (56.7%).
With a sluggish offense, a stout defense is a requisite to keep you in games – something UCLA has yet to show that it has. The Bruins, who rank 121st in Pass Success, allowed over 400 yards passing to both Indiana and LSU – an increasingly worrying statistic as Gabriel comes to town.
The UCLA defense has held opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing per game, but it still ranks 78th in Rush Success Rate.
UCLA vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCLA and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. UCLA Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 127 | |
UCLA Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 99 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 42 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 63 |
| PFF Coverage | 10 | 100 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 48 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 110 | 40 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (83) | 29.8 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (85) | 41% (131) |
How to Bet My Oregon vs UCLA Prediction
Will the real Oregon Ducks please stand up?
I’m firmly in the camp the Ducks are closer to the team that dismantled the Beavers last time out than the one that narrowly avoided upsets against Idaho and Boise State.
The Ducks have had another week to get their offensive line healthy, and Dillon Gabriel now has three games in a new offense under his belt.
UCLA has played uninspired football. And if Oregon gets out to an early lead, it could be quitting time for the Bruins as they face reality that yet another beatdown likely looms next week with Penn State on deck.
UCLA's offense has shown zero signs that it can come anywhere close to keeping pace with Oregon, and it’s a secondary that has been torched in back-to-back games against lesser passing attacks.
It’s a late game, but it should be over early.
Pick: Oregon -24.5 (Play to -26.5)
