Oregon vs Utah Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
The excitement in the Pac-12’s final season roles through Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 9. Oregon will leave the friendly confines of Eugene as -6.5 favorites, although Utah has one of the best home-field advantages in college football.
The Utes are celebrating after a road victory as touchdown underdogs to USC, as head coach Kyle Whittingham summarized how his team feels.
Kyle Whittingham with an all-time quote: "They've got a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, so they're gonna make some things, and that's just the way it is. But we've got ourselves a pig farmer at quarterback, so we're proud of that guy, too."
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) October 22, 2023
Utah is now a leading contender to win the Pac-12, hosting Oregon in this game with a Week 11 showdown scheduled at Washington.
Oregon also controls its own destiny. A sweep of the remaining schedule will put the Ducks in the conference championship game.
Head coach Dan Lanning rebounded from a loss to Washington by beating Washington State by two scores in Week 8. The Ducks continued to cruise as one of the best offenses in the nation, creating 14 explosives against the Cougars.
Oregon has one of the easiest paths of all Pac-12 teams in regard to the November schedule, as a win in Week 9 will set the Ducks up to be a contender on the national stage.
This game will serve as a Pac-12 knockout game with the winner having an outside chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Oregon Ducks
As its strength of schedule continues to improve, there has been no drop-off in Oregon's offense.
Quarterback Bo Nix has an outstanding 19:1 ratio in passing touchdowns to interceptions after health played a factor in the Ducks' 2022 decline when the Auburn transfer was limited by an ankle injury.
This season has seen the fifth-year quarterback cut down on rushing attempts, logging just 74 scramble yards compared to 281 a season ago.
Oregon boasts the top offense in the nation from a Quality Drives perspective, starting with the lethal rushing attack of Bucky Irving and Jordan James.
This angle of Bucky Irving’s ankle breaking TD run pic.twitter.com/k7VI053oXV
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 21, 2023
Both running backs average at least 7.6 yards per carry, creating a combined 49 missed tackles on the season. Oregon plays at the second-highest rate in standard downs, as the Ducks are rarely behind the chains.
Nix has been excellent when it comes to throwing the ball with the top overall rank in on-target passes.
No individual player in college football is having an easier season than punter Ross James, as the Ducks have kicked on fourth down just 16 times this season.
The 3-3-5 defense has been fantastic against the pass this season. Oregon ranks top-15 against the pass in terms of Success Rate and explosives, ranking 34th in coverage by PFF.
The Ducks' nickel package runs a heavy amount of Quarters and Cover 1, but excelling against the pass may have little value against the current Utah offense. The Utes run a heavy amount of inside zone from 12 personnel, so Oregon is expected to stuff the box and look to replicate its success against opponents with this run concept.
Utah Utes
The general feeling in Week 8 was that the Utes would not be able to keep up with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from an offensive perspective in the Coliseum.
Utah thrived in shutting down the USC offense, limiting the Trojans to a single methodical drive while producing six tackles for loss.
The Utes kept up on offense, receiving four total touchdowns from quarterback Bryson Barnes. The junior had the best passing game of his career despite three drops by targets.
WHAT A START 👏@Utah_Football takes an early lead over USC! pic.twitter.com/1h8HVNMlyK
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 22, 2023
Utah has found new life on offense through a backup quarterback and a converted safety in Sione Vaki at running back.
The offense was lifeless for most of the season with injuries across the roster, but it blasted the USC defense for 13 explosive plays. The Utes had as many explosive drives as the Trojans, a testament to the rising offense and declining USC defense.
Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley continues to call one of the best defenses on the West Coast. Utah ranks top-10 in Havoc and Defensive Quality Drives, making it difficult for opposing offenses to move the chains and protect the football.
The 4-2-5 defense has a moderate blitz rate in standard downs, ultimately bumping to 69% in long second- and third-down attempts. The defense has been fantastic in passing downs, ranking as the best in college football in terms of Success Rate.
Where Utah struggles on defense is in standard downs, allowing explosives at a bottom-10 rate in FBS.
Oregon vs Utah
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Utah match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs Utah Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 6 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 3 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 8 | |
Utah Offense vs Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 68 | |
| Pass Success | 94 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 49 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 57 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 40 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (60) | 30.6 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 47.9% (90) | 65.5% (5) |
Oregon vs Utah
Betting Prediction, Picks
Oregon's success in early downs will be the determining factor in the Ducks' ability to win and cover the game.
Oregon has the best offense in the nation in standard downs, assisted by the run game with Irving and James. The Ducks are hit at the line of scrimmage at the second-lowest rate nationally, so they should be confident in moving the pile against the Utes' front seven.
Utah has been susceptible to allowing chunk plays in standard downs through the air. The Utes excel in zone coverage, opting to run Cover 1 and Cover 3 on the majority of defensive snaps.
Nix has been excellent against these select coverages, executing a high number of explosives against Cover 1.
Nix leads a passing offense that's best overall in on-target rate, so Utah must crowd wide receivers Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson in coverage. The Utes rank 18th in on-target allowed rate, indicating there should be some resistance to Oregon's downfield passing attack.
The Ducks must lean on one of the best discipline factors of the offense — the nation's second-best rank in Havoc Allowed. Protecting the football will be key against an opportunistic Utah defense.
The Utah handicap comes down to its use of inside zone runs against the Ducks' front seven. Barnes, Vaki and running back Ja’Quinden Jackson run twice as many zone rush concepts inside the tackles than outside, as the Utes rank top-30 in Stuff Rate Allowed and Line Yards.
The Oregon defense has been excellent at defending inside zone when loading the box with seven or more defenders.
The Ducks play a majority of zone coverage snaps in quarters, a consistent thorn in the side of Utah's passing attack.
The Utes will opt to complete passes within 10 yards or behind the line of scrimmage, taking advantage of Oregon in open space. The Ducks rank 110th in broken tackles allowed, a positive sign for Jackson and Vaki.
Action Network projects Oregon as a three-point favorite. An opener of three was quickly steamed to the current market number of a full touchdown.
The Ducks have yet to face an offense with a heavy ground attack, as Washington, Washington State, Stanford and Colorado are all pass-first offenses. Utah will have success running inside zone, creating explosives via missed tackles from the Ducks.
Expect Oregon to utilize its downfield passing attack while the Utes break enough tackles to keep this within a possession.
