Oregon State vs. Arizona State Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
This one is far from Pac-12 after dark as this matchup will kick off just a few minutes past noon in Tempe, Arizona when the 23rd-ranked Oregon State Beavers travel south to face the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Beavers have kept the ball rolling this season and have won four of their last five games.
All of those wins have come without starting quarterback Chance Nolan. Backup quarterback Ben Gulbranson has done an excellent job of putting his club in a position to succeed, and the market appears to think he will do so again in this matchup.
As for the Sun Devils, it has been a season of peaks and valleys as they fired Herm Edwards very early when they hit rock bottom after losing to Eastern Michigan. Then they found a spark in their upset win against Washington.
Unfortunately, that spark was short-lived, as they've lost three of their last four and will now have a tall task in front of them as 7.5-point home underdogs.
Can the Sun Devils rally for one last time, or will the Beavers roll them over? Let's dive in to find out.
Oregon State Beavers
As I alluded to in the open, Oregon State has hit its stride of late and hasn't missed a beat without Nolan.
This has happened for two reasons.
The first is that they are a rush-heavy offense. They run the ball at the 18th-highest rate in the country. This means that whichever quarterback is under center is not asked to do much.
The second reason is that Gulbranson has done a tremendous job of not turning the ball over, which has been critical. He only has three interceptions in his six starts and one total pick in his last five games.
Gulbranson will need to manage the offense once again on Saturday as the ground game should be firing on all cylinders.
The Sun Devils have been ravaged on the ground as they enter this matchup ranked 120th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Defensive Line Yards. So whether it's Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick or Jam Griffin, the ball should move methodically down the field all game long.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Backup quarterback Trenton Bourguet gave the Sun Devils offense a midseason spark.
He was dynamite in the upset win over Washington and has been the starter ever since. However, Arizona State has not abandoned Emory Jones, as he's been getting his fair share of reps as well. However, his mobility has given him a far different role.
Regardless of which quarterback is under center, he will have a tough time with this Oregon State defense. The Beavers rank 33rd in PFF Pass Coverage Grade, and that has translated into ranking 24th in opponent completion percentage and 19th in yards per pass allowed.
Arizona State is not a team that wants to nor has proven capable of running the ball this season. However, the Sun Devils wouldn't find much success on the ground in this matchup either way, as the Beavers are 33rd in yards per rush allowed.
No matter which way you slice it, the Sun Devils' offensive outlook in this matchup is bleak.
Oregon State vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Arizona State match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 93 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 28 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 124 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arizona State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 57 |  |
| Pass Success | 49 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 106 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 29 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 58 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 95 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 111 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (124) | 28.4 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 60.7% (18) | 49.9% (89) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon State vs. Arizona State Betting Pick
This is a game where the Beavers should be in complete control.
They will dictate the tempo and chew clock with long, methodical drives. They should also dominate the time of possession as Arizona State will struggle to extend drives in passing situations.
Everything here is pointing to the under. Arizona State won't score much, and the Beavers may not leave themselves enough time to run it up.
Pick: Under 54.5 (Play to 51.5) |
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