The Oregon State Beavers (4-3) head south to Berkeley where they take on the California Golden Bears (3-4) at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
It’s been a rough two weeks for the Beavers, as they’ve been victims of two straight losses. Oregon State fell to UNLV last week, 33-25, and to Nevada the week before, 42-37.
After an incredible start to the season, Cal has gone down the mineshaft and has lost four straight games. All four losses have been by a one possession, most recently losing to NC State, 24-23.
Cal is favored by 10 points on the spread with a total that checks in at 49.5 points.
Where does the betting value lie? Check out my Oregon State vs. Cal predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Oregon State vs Cal Prediction, Picks
- Oregon State vs Cal Pick: Oregon State +10
My Oregon State vs Cal best bet is on the Beavers spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon State vs Cal Odds, Lines, Spread
| Oregon St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -11- | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -420 |
- Oregon State vs Cal Spread: Cal -10.5
- Oregon State vs Cal Over/Under: 49.5 Points
- Oregon State vs Cal Moneyline: Cal -420, Oregon State +320
Oregon State vs Cal Preview
Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview: A Sluggish Stretch
It’s clear that Gevani McCoy needs a few more reps at this level. After a nice start to the season, the honeymoon phase is over and opponents are starting to figure him out.
Nevada was the main example, as the Wolf Pack intercepted McCoy a total of four times.
However, he’s a dual threat, so he’s a big contributor to this running game. Between McCoy, Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson, the Beavers run the ball at a top-20 rate – and they do it efficiently. They’re ranked 19th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in PPA.
Hankerson has received the bulk of the carries due to the injury of Griffin, and he's produced an FBS third-best 13 rushing touchdowns.
Griffin’s injury status is still up in the air, and I’m not very hopeful on him playing. That will mean freshman Salahadin Allah, who has fared well with five yards per carry, gets more looks.
Given how poorly McCoy has played, it’s hard to put a whole lot of faith in this passing attack. The Beavers do a good job at limiting Havoc, but when McCoy throws a lot, that’s when he gets in trouble. The Nevada game is a perfect example of that.
Oregon State is ranked 80th in Passing Play Success Rate and 90th in PPA, so I would assume a lot of the offense is centered around either Hankerson, or McCoy scrambling.
There isn’t a whole lot here on the defensive end either, as the Beavers are 95th in Passing Play Success Rate allowed, 84th in Pass Down Success Rate allowed and 99th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
There are some dogs in this defensive corps, where Skyler Thomas and Nikko Taylor are ball hawks.
Additionally, Jack Kane has generated two pass breakups, two interceptions and a forced fumble.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Reinforcements Coming?
Cal may be getting a ton of help this week as both running back Jaydn Ott and wide receiver Tobias Merriweather returned to practice.
Ott hasn’t performed up to his standards this season, mostly because he has zero help. The offensive line is among the worst in the country and is dead last in Havoc allowed.
In Ott’s absence, Jaivian Thomas has done the best he could, but in the end, Cal ranks 99th in Rush Success Rate for a reason.
Most of the offensive success for Cal has come from the hands of Fernando Mendoza. He’s done an extraordinary job at staying as efficient as possible, completing 67% of his passes and throwing for eight touchdowns.
The metrics seem very favorable to Cal, even if the offensive line is atrocious. The Bears are 29th in Pass Play Success Rate and 41st in Pass Down Success Rate. However, I wouldn’t expect many big plays, as they’re one of the least explosive programs in the FBS.
Merriweather’s return will be a big welcome for Cal. His 6-foot-5 frame will immediately generate interest from opposing defensive backs. It could even open up the field for guys like Jack Endries and Nyziah Hunter.
Let’s talk about this defense for a minute. Teddye Buchanan and Craig Woodson are total studs, but the star of the show is Nohl Williams, who has an FBS-leading six interceptions, as well as four pass breakups.
Cal is also second in Havoc, while ranking 28th in points per opportunity.
It just can’t stop the run to save its life. The Bears are 117th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 95th in PPA.
Not only that, in Pass Down opportunities, they’re even worse, ranking 132nd in Success Rate allowed and 126th in PPA.
Oregon State vs Cal Pick & Prediction
Both of these programs are clearly flawed. One will be missing a key piece, and the other will be getting back two. One is atrocious at throwing the ball, and the other is pretty efficient.
I can go on here.
I think we’ll see a lot of activity on the ground, primarily from Oregon State. Even when McCoy sets up to throw, there’s a very good chance that he runs for it. Hankerson has been a godsend for the Beavers, but if they’re not winning games, it’s all for naught.
Cal is such a difficult program, and I can understand why its fans are frustrated. Four straight losses all by one possession isn't a way you want to go, but I think there’s potential here. Just boost up that offensive line after this season, and the Bears will be riding high.
Because of Cal’s inefficient offensive line, I’m putting my eggs in the Beavers’ basket. Even with a shoddy defensive front, I can’t fully trust Cal here, especially given its track record.
Pick: Oregon State +10
Oregon State vs Cal Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Oregon State takes on Cal in Berkeley on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
